Modelling shadow banking system and housing market in China

Given the lessons learned from the financial crisis and housing crash in Japan and the US, as well as the strong connection between the shadow banking sector and property market in the second-largest economy, China, it is essential to understand the mechanism of a model that contains both shadow banking activities and the housing market. Therefore, the first objective of this thesis is to model the Chinese banking and housing sector and understand the underlying mechanism. The second objective is related to a methodological issue. In recent years, many researchers, especially in mainland China, have been exploring the Chinese shadow banking system. Most researchers either only calibrate or use Bayesian estimation to estimate their model. However, none of the approaches test the model against real data. Different models can tell different stories and potentially provide different policy implications. However, if the model is rejected by the actual data, all the results and policy suggestions might become insignificant. Therefore, in my research, I adopt two different estimation approaches, Bayesian estimation and Indirect Inference approach, to first provide some understanding about Chinese shadow banking system, and second, to discover whether my model can or cannot be rejected by the actual data

From Shortcuts to Triggers: Backdoor Defense with Denoised PoE

Language models are often at risk of diverse backdoor attacks, especially data poisoning. Thus, it is important to investigate defense solutions for addressing them. Existing backdoor defense methods mainly focus on backdoor attacks with explicit triggers, leaving a universal defense against various backdoor attacks with diverse triggers largely unexplored. In this paper, we propose an end-to-end ensemble-based backdoor defense framework, DPoE (Denoised Product-of-Experts), which is inspired by the shortcut nature of backdoor attacks, to defend various backdoor attacks. DPoE consists of two models: a shallow model that captures the backdoor shortcuts and a main model that is prevented from learning the backdoor shortcuts. To address the label flip caused by backdoor attackers, DPoE incorporates a denoising design. Experiments on SST-2 dataset show that DPoE significantly improves the defense performance against various types of backdoor triggers including word-level, sentence-level, and syntactic triggers. Furthermore, DPoE is also effective under a more challenging but practical setting that mixes multiple types of trigger.Comment: Work in Progres

Three-dimensional Magnetic Restructuring in Two Homologous Solar Flares in the Seismically Active NOAA AR 11283

We carry out a comprehensive investigation comparing the three-dimensional magnetic field restructuring, flare energy release, and the helioseismic response, of two homologous flares, the 2011 September 6 X2.1 (FL1) and September 7 X1.8 (FL2) flares in NOAA AR 11283. In our analysis, (1) a twisted flux rope (FR) collapses onto the surface at a speed of 1.5 km/s after a partial eruption in FL1. The FR then gradually grows to reach a higher altitude and collapses again at 3 km/s after a fuller eruption in FL2. Also, FL2 shows a larger decrease of the flux-weighted centroid separation of opposite magnetic polarities and a greater change of the horizontal field on the surface. These imply a more violent coronal implosion with corresponding more intense surface signatures in FL2. (2) The FR is inclined northward, and together with the ambient fields, it undergoes a southward turning after both events. This agrees with the asymmetric decay of the penumbra observed in the peripheral regions. (3) The amounts of free magnetic energy and nonthermal electron energy released during FL1 are comparable to those of FL2 within the uncertainties of the measurements. (4) No sunquake was detected in FL1; in contrast, FL2 produced two seismic emission sources S1 and S2 both lying in the penumbral regions. Interestingly, S1 and S2 are connected by magnetic loops, and the stronger source S2 has weaker vertical magnetic field. We discuss these results in relation to the implosion process in the low corona and the sunquake generation.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures, accepted to the Astrophysical Journa