Nonstatistical Factors Influencing Predictions of Financial Distress and Managerial Implications in the All-Cargo Airline Industry

All-cargo airlines carry over 50% of global airfreight, yet they are prone to bankruptcy. Many financial models are designed to predict a firms\u27 financial health, but they do not assess many nonstatistical factors that influence the prediction capability of these models. In this study, qualitative grounded theory design was used to identify nonstatistical factors and explore how they influence bankruptcy prediction models in the all-cargo airline industry. In the first phase of the study, financial data from 2005 to 2009 for 17 all-cargo U.S. airlines were used to determine the bankruptcy prediction ability of the Kroeze financial bankruptcy model. A sample of six all-cargo airlines (ABX Air, Arrow Air, Atlas Air, Cargo 360, Gemini Air Cargo, and Kitty Hawk Air Cargo) were selected containing a mixture of airlines for which the Kroeze model correctly and incorrectly predicted bankruptcy. The sample was used as the starting point to explore the nonstatistical factors using grounded theory. Data were obtained on the six airlines from company annual reports, SEC 10K annual reports, reports from professional journals such as Air Transport Intelligence and Traffic World, news reports and company press releases. The data were coded and grouped into conceptual categories, which were used in theory generation to support the emerging theory. Six categories (management, risk, operations, competitive advantage, financial, and external factors) that relate to the financial stability of an all-cargo airline emerged during the research. Three themes emerged that may improve current quantitative bankruptcy prediction models. The three themes are airline fleet type, type of aircraft flown, and aircraft utilization. The three themes relate to the type, use, and make up of an airline’s fleet. These themes influence bankruptcy prediction model and should be incorporated into failure prediction models to improve their overall accuracy. Future research should be conducted to verify these findings on a larger population, such as all-cargo airlines that operate outside the United States. These airlines operate under different financial regimes that may affect the prediction models differently

The 6th mode of transportation

The five modes of freight transportation are normally characterized as motor carriers, railroads, airlines, water carriers, and pipelines. This paper will attempt to position the Internet as the sixth mode of transportation. This paper compares the strengths and weaknesses of the traditional five modes of transportation against the proposed 6th mode of the Internet. Without including the Internet as a mode of transportation, and tracking the economic value that it adds to the economy, the economic impact of the Internet as a mode is not considered. The recommendation of this study is that the Internet should be added to the list of modes of transportation of goods and therefore making the Internet the sixth mode of transportation

Pilot’s Style of Learning and Thinking and Age-Related Declines in Visual Recall

This study examined the styles of learning and thinking and age-related visual recall performance of pilots. The study used the Style of Learning and Thinking (SOLAT) survey instrument to determine pilot\u27s learning preferences and compared pilot learning patterns to a control group of non-pilots. The study also examined possible decline in visual recall performance of pilots using a neuropsychological test, the Rey-Osterreich Complex Figure test (ROCF). Decline in visual recall performance of pilots can affect flight safety. There were 130 military pilots, 35 commercial aviation pilots, 26 general aviation pilots, and 57 non-pilot controls in the study

Analysis of Hazardous Material Incidents Reported to the Aviation Safety Reporting System

Hazardous and dangerous goods are often shipped by air on both passenger and cargo aircraft. These hazardous materials (HAZMAT), also known as dangerous goods (DG), pose a danger to flight safety, passengers, and airline personnel. This research explored how effective the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) is at identifying aviation related HAZMAT incidents. Early identification of HAZMAT trends using the ASRS data could lead to changes in aviation safety monitoring and reduce the likelihood of a HAZMAT event causing an incident. This study identified prevalent categories of hazardous material found in reported incidents. The study further identified that most of the HAZMAT incidents involved cargo being flown on passenger aircraft and that two-thirds of the incidents were discovered after take-off. Missing or incorrect documentation was identified in approximately half of the cases. Statistical analysis of the data indicated that HAZMAT paperwork errors correlated significantly with damage to an aircraft and that the source of the problem (passenger carry on, passenger checked, cargo) correlated significantly with where (climb-out, landing, ground, cruise) the problems occurred

Analysis of General Aviation Instructional Loss of Control Accidents

Although student pilots spend many hours practicing maneuvers to improve airmanship and prevent accidents, almost one half of all general aviation aircraft accidents occur during flight training. Among these, loss of control is the most commonly cited causal factor, and the most common first occurrence in a chain of causal events. This project answers the following question: Can an analysis of National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident reports identify the role of secondary causal factors or reasons involved in general aviation loss of control accidents that involve instructional flights? The analysis focuses on five factors as they each relate to loss of control events: causal factors, phase and location of flight, student and instructor experience, procedural errors, and meteorological conditions. In addition, common occurrences were analyzed to determine trends involved with accident chains of events, and a chi-square test was completed for student and instructor experience as well as accident locations in order to gather insight and support recommendations regarding instructional loss of control accidents in general aviation. The study revealed at least two significant findings: (1) the number of student flight hours accumulated correlates to accident location; and (2) the chain of events in an accident can be an important piece of information in determining causes of an aircraft accident

Characteristics of Helicopter Accidents Involving Male and Female Pilots

Studies examining aviation accidents have not found differences in accident rates by gender, though there may be gender differences in the types of accident. Baker, Lamb, Grabowski, and Rebok (2001) examined fixed-wing aviation accident rates of male and female private pilots and found that males were more likely to have accidents related to inattention or poor planning while female pilots were more likely to have accidents due to mishandling the aircraft. This research analyzed the National Transportation Safety Board’s aviation accident database system to examine the severity of injury and aircraft damage in rotary-wing (helicopter) accidents by gender. The data indicated that female helicopter pilots have slightly higher accident rates with higher aircraft damage and personnel injury rates at lower levels of training and experience, but have superior records as compared to male pilots at higher levels of experience. Overall, minimal differences in accident rates for helicopter pilots can be tied to gender differences

Age Differences in Helicopter Accidents: A Preliminary Investigation

This study utilized the NTSB database from 2006 to 2016 to examine differences in severity of accidents by age for helicopter operations. There were 1023 cases included in the data (97.1% male and 2.9% female). The average age for helicopter pilots in the database was 47.00 years (SD=13.78). The average number of flying hours was 5447.98 (SD=6825.90, sk=1.982). An ANOVA was used to examine the effects of age on damage to the aircraft and injury to aircraft occupants. There was not a significant difference in pilot ages across the damage categories of none, minor, substantial, and destroyed, F(3,1019)=.763, p=.515, with average ages of 46.64, 46.04, 46.86, and 49.58 across the categories. There was a significant difference in age across injury categories of none, minor, serious, and fatal, F(3,1019)=7.549, p To examine further the apparent conundrum that injuries went up with age while damage did not, additional analyses were conducted looking particularly at helicopter pilots between 50 and 59 and 60 and 69. For the two groups, there was not a significant difference by age for damage or injury [F(3,234)=.784, p=.504; F(3,234)=.745, p=.526, F(3, 1880=1.395, p=.246, F(3, 188)=.173, p=.915 respectively]. Discounting reporting anomalies, when proportional damage was examined (for age \u3e60 pilots) 86.45% of aircraft sustained substantial damage; in the same age group, 95.31% of aircraft sustained substantial damage or destroyed resulting in 35.42% of those accidents involving serious injury or loss of life

Granular circulation in a cylindrical pan: simulations of reversing radial and tangential flows

Granular flows due to simultaneous vertical and horizontal excitations of a flat-bottomed cylindrical pan are investigated using event-driven molecular dynamics simulations. In agreement with recent experimental results, we observe a transition from a solid-like state, to a fluidized state in which circulatory flow occurs simultaneously in the radial and tangential directions. By going beyond the range of conditions explored experimentally, we find that each of these circulations reverse their direction as a function of the control parameters of the motion. We numerically evaluate the dynamical phase diagram for this system and show, using a simple model, that the solid-fluid transition can be understood in terms of a critical value of the radial acceleration of the pan bottom; and that the circulation reversals are controlled by the phase shift relating the horizontal and vertical components of the vibrations. We also discuss the crucial role played by the geometry of the boundary conditions, and point out a relationship of the circulation observed here and the flows generated in vibratory conveyors.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figure

Linked randomised controlled trials of face-to-face and electronic brief intervention methods to prevent alcohol related harm in young people aged 14–17 years presenting to Emergency Departments (SIPS junior)

Background: Alcohol is a major global threat to public health. Although the main burden of chronic alcohol-related disease is in adults, its foundations often lie in adolescence. Alcohol consumption and related harm increase steeply from the age of 12 until 20 years. Several trials focusing upon young people have reported significant positive effects of brief interventions on a range of alcohol consumption outcomes. A recent review of reviews also suggests that electronic brief interventions (eBIs) using internet and smartphone technologies may markedly reduce alcohol consumption compared with minimal or no intervention controls. Interventions that target non-drinking youth are known to delay the onset of drinking behaviours. Web based alcohol interventions for adolescents also demonstrate significantly greater reductions in consumption and harm among ‘high-risk’ drinkers; however changes in risk status at follow-up for non-drinkers or low-risk drinkers have not been assessed in controlled trials of brief alcohol interventions