Using 3D turbulence-resolving simulations to understand the impact of surface properties on the energy balance of a debris-covered glacier

Debris-covered glaciers account for almost onefifth of the total glacier ice volume in High Mountain Asia; however, their contribution to the total glacier melt remains uncertain, and the drivers controlling this melt are still largely unknown. Debris influences the properties (e.g. albedo, thermal conductivity, roughness) of the glacier surface and thus the surface energy balance and glacier melt. In this study we have used sensitivity tests to assess the effect of surface properties of debris on the spatial distribution of micrometeorological variables such as wind fields, moisture and temperature. Subsequently we investigated how those surface properties drive the turbulent fluxes and eventually the conductive heat flux of a debris-covered glacier. We simulated a debris-covered glacier (Lirung Glacier, Nepal) at a 1m resolution with the MicroHH model, with boundary conditions retrieved from an automatic weather station (temperature, wind and specific humidity) and unmanned aerial vehicle flights (digital elevation map and surface temperature). The model was validated using eddy covariance data. A sensitivity analysis was then performed to provide insight into how heterogeneous surface variables control the glacier microclimate. Additionally, we show that ice cliffs are local melt hot spots and that turbulent fluxes and local heat advection amplify spatial heterogeneity on the surface. The high spatial variability of small-scale meteorological variables suggests that point-based station observations cannot be simply extrapolated to an entire glacier. These outcomes should be considered in future studies for a better estimation of glacier melt in High Mountain Asia.</p

Quantifying volume loss from ice cliffs on debris-covered glaciers using high-resolution terrestrial and aerial photogrammetry

Mass losses originating from supraglacial ice cliffs at the lower tongues of debris-covered glaciers are a potentially large component of the mass balance, but have rarely been quantified. In this study, we develop a method to estimate ice cliff volume losses based on high-resolution topographic data derived from terrestrial and aerial photogrammetry. We apply our method to six cliffs monitored in May and October 2013 and 2014 using four different topographic datasets collected over the debris-covered Lirung Glacier of the Nepalese Himalayas. During the monsoon, the cliff mean backwasting rate was relatively consistent in 2013 (3.8 ± 0.3 cm w.e. d−1) and more heterogeneous among cliffs in 2014 (3.1 ± 0.7 cm w.e. d−1), and the geometric variations between cliffs are larger. Their mean backwasting rate is significantly lower in winter (October 2013–May 2014), at 1.0 ± 0.3 cm w.e. d−1. These results are consistent with estimates of cliff ablation from an energy-balance model developed in a previous study. The ice cliffs lose mass at rates six times higher than estimates of glacier-wide melt under debris, which seems to confirm that ice cliffs provide a large contribution to total glacier melt

Spatial and temporal patterns of snowmelt refreezing in a Himalayan catchment

Recent progress has been made in quantifying snowmelt in the Himalaya. Although the conditions are favorable for refreezing, little is known about the spatial variability of meltwater refreezing, hindering a complete understanding of seasonal snowmelt dynamics. This study aims to improve our understanding about how refreezing varies in space and time. We simulated refreezing with the seNorge (v2.0) snow model for the Langtang catchment, Nepalese Himalaya, covering a 5-year period. Meteorological forcing data were derived from a unique elaborate network of meteorological stations and high-resolution meteorological simulations. The results show that the annual catchment average refreezing amounts to 122 mm w.e. (21% of the melt), and varies strongly in space depending on elevation and aspect. In addition, there is a seasonal altitudinal variability related to air temperature and snow depth, with most refreezing during the early melt season. Substantial intra-annual variability resulted from fluctuations in snowfall. Daily refreezing simulations decreased by 84% (annual catchment average of 19 mm w.e.) compared to hourly simulations, emphasizing the importance of using sub-daily time steps to capture melt-refreeze cycles. Climate sensitivity experiments revealed that refreezing is highly sensitive to changes in air temperature as a 2°C increase leads to a refreezing decrease of 35%

The Great Glacier and Snow-Dependent Rivers of Asia and Climate Change: Heading for Troubled Waters

The glacier- and snow-fed river basins of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) mountains provide water to 1.9 billion people in Asia. The signs of climate change in the HKH mountains are clear, with increased warming and accelerated melting of snow and glaciers. This threatens the water, food, energy and livelihood security for many in Asia. The links between mountains and plains and the differential impacts of climate change on societies upstream and downstream need to be better established to improve adaptation measures. This chapter sheds light on climate change impacts on the cryosphere and mountains, the impact on river systems and the social consequences of such changes in mountains, hills and plains. In high mountains and hills, the impact of climate change is clear, as seen in changes in agropastoral systems and the increasing occurrence of floods and droughts, with losses and damages already high. Moving downstream, the climate change signal is harder to separate from other environmental and management factors. This chapter outlines how climate change in the mountains will impact various sectors in the hills and plains, such as hydropower, irrigation, cities, industries and the environment. It discusses how climate change will potentially lead to increased disasters and out-migration of people. The chapter concludes by highlighting necessary actions, such as the need to reduce emissions globally, build regional cooperation between HKH countries, increase technical and financial support for adaptation, and more robust and interdisciplinary science to address changing policy needs

The Importance of Turbulent Fluxes in the Surface Energy Balance of a Debris-Covered Glacier in the Himalayas

Surface energy balance models are common tools to estimate melt rates of debris-covered glaciers. In the Himalayas, radiative fluxes are occasionally measured, but very limited observations of turbulent fluxes on debris-covered tongues exist to date. We present measurements collected between 26 September and 12 October 2016 from an eddy correlation system installed on the debris-covered Lirung Glacier in Nepal during the transition between monsoon and post-monsoon. Our observations suggest that surface energy losses through turbulent fluxes reduce the positive net radiative fluxes during daylight hours between 10 and 100%, and even lead to a net negative surface energy balance after noon. During clear days, turbulent flux losses increase to over 250 W m−2 mainly due to high sensible heat fluxes. During overcast days the latent heat flux dominates the turbulent losses and together they reach just above 100 W m−2. Subsequently, we validate the performance of three bulk approaches in reproducing the observations from the eddy correlation system. Large differences exist between the approaches, and accurate estimates of surface temperature, wind speed, and surface roughness are necessary for their performance to be reasonable. Moreover, the tested bulk approaches generally overestimate turbulent latent heat fluxes by a factor 3 on clear days, because the debris-covered surface dries out rapidly, while the bulk equations assume surface saturation. Improvements to bulk surface energy models should therefore include the drying process of the surface. A sensitivity analysis suggests that, in order to be useful in distributed melt models, an accurate extrapolation of wind speed, surface temperature and surface roughness in space is a prerequisite. By applying the best performing bulk model over a complete melt period, we show that turbulent fluxes reduce the available energy for melt at the debris surface by 17% even at very low wind speeds. Overall, we conclude that turbulent fluxes play an essential role in the surface energy balance of debris-covered glaciers and that it is essential to include them in melt models

Pond Dynamics and Supraglacial-Englacial Connectivity on Debris-Covered Lirung Glacier, Nepal

The hydrological systems of heavily-downwasted debris-covered glaciers differ from those of clean-ice glaciers due to the hummocky surface and debris mantle of such glaciers, leading to a relatively limited understanding of drainage pathways. Supraglacial ponds represent sinks within the discontinuous supraglacial drainage system, and occasionally drain englacially. To assess pond dynamics, we made pond water level measurements on Lirung Glacier, Nepal, during May and October of 2013 and 2014. Simultaneously, aerial, satellite, and terrestrial orthoimages and digital elevation models were obtained, providing snapshots of the ponds and their surroundings. We performed a DEM-based analysis of the glacier's closed surface catchments to identify surface drainage pathways and englacial drainage points, and compared this to field observations of surface and near-surface water flow. The total ponded area was higher in the pre-monsoon than post-monsoon, with individual ponds filling and draining seasonally associated with the surface exposure of englacial conduit segments. We recorded four pond drainage events, all of which occurred gradually (duration of weeks), observed diurnal fluctuations indicative of varying water supply and outflow discharge, and we documented instances of interaction between distant ponds. The DEM drainage analysis identified numerous sinks &gt;3 m in depth across the glacier surface, few of which exhibited ponds (23%), while the field survey highlighted instances of surface water only explicable via englacial routes. Taken together, our observations provide evidence for widespread supraglacial-englacial connectivity of meltwater drainage paths. Results suggest that successive englacial conduit collapse events, themselves likely driven by supraglacial pond drainage, cause the glacier surface drainage system to evolve into a configuration following relict englacial conduit systems. Within this system, ponds form in depressions of reduced drainage efficiency and link the supraglacial and englacial drainage networks

Quantification of run-of-river hydropower potential in the Upper Indus basin under climate change

IntroductionDespite ambitious plans to quadruple hydropower generation in the Indus basin, a quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change on hydropower availability in the basin is missing. To address this gap, we combine downscaled CMIP6 projections with the Hydropower Potential Exploration (HyPE) model to quantify future hydropower potential available in the upper Indus basin.MethodsHyPE uses a spatial cost-minimization framework to evaluate four classes of hydropower potential, namely theoretical, technical, financial and sustainable, considering various constraints on the siting and sizing of two run-of-river hydropower plant configurations.ResultsUnder future discharge projections, all classes of potential increase while subbasin changes align with the spatial patterns projected in hydro-climatology. Theoretical potential changes by 3.9–56 %, technical potential by −2.3–46.8 %, financial potential by −8.8–50.4 % and sustainable potential by −6.1–49.7 %. A small decline is observed in the northwestern subbasins where increase in potential is lower than in the southeast. In contrast, with increasing variability in the Indian Summer Monsoon in the future, the southeastern subbasins have the strongest increase in sustainable potential accompanied by higher increase in plant size, decrease in costs and higher variability. The southeastern Satluj subbasin is the hotspot where sustainable potential has the highest increase of up to 145 %. The northwestern Kabul subbasin has the highest decrease of up to −27 %. The Swat subbasin has the lowest variability in sustainable potential while the Jhelum and Indus main subbasins remain the subbasins with the cheapest potential into the future. The performance of future sustainable portfolios differ from the performance of historical portfolios by −11.1–39.9 %.DiscussionHence, considering future climate in the present-day planning of hydropower will lead to improved performance under a majority of scenarios. The sufficiency of hydropower potential to fulfill energy security depends on future population growth. Energy availability is projected to decline in the northwest as population increases faster than hydropower potential. The per capita sustainable potential In the Kabul subbasin reduces to a third of the historical value. A socio-hydrological approach is necessary to address the complexity of achieving sustainable and equitable hydropower development in the Indus basin under such spatial mismatch between hydropower availability and energy demand in a resource-limited world

The Importance of Snow Sublimation on a Himalayan Glacier

Snow sublimation is a loss of water from the snowpack to the atmosphere. So far, snow sublimation has remained unquantified in the Himalaya, prohibiting a full understanding of the water balance and glacier mass balance. Hence, we measured surface latent heat fluxes with an eddy covariance system on Yala Glacier (5,350 m a.s.l) in the Nepalese Himalaya to quantify the role snow sublimation plays in the water and glacier mass budget. Observations reveal that cumulative sublimation is 32 mm for a 32-day period from October to November 2016, which is high compared to observations in other regions in the world. Multiple turbulent flux parameterizations were subsequently tested against this observed sublimation. The bulk-aerodynamic method offered the best performance, and we subsequently used this method to estimate cumulative sublimation and evaporation at the location of the eddy covariance system for the 2016–2017 winter season, which is 125 and 9 mm respectively. This is equivalent to 21% of the annual snowfall. In addition, the spatial variation of total daily sublimation over Yala Glacier was simulated with the bulk-aerodynamic method for a humid and non-humid day. Required spatial fields of meteorological variables were obtained from high-resolution WRF simulations of the region in combination with field observations. The cumulative daily sublimation at the location of the eddy covariance system equals the simulated sublimation averaged over the entire glacier. Therefore, this location appears to be representative for Yala Glacier sublimation. The spatial distribution of sublimation is primarily controlled by wind speed. Close to the ridge of Yala Glacier cumulative daily sublimation is a factor 1.7 higher than at the location of the eddy covariance system, whereas it is a factor 0.8 lower at the snout of the glacier. This illustrates that the fraction of snowfall returned to the atmosphere may be much higher than 21% at wind-exposed locations. This is a considerable loss of water and illustrates the importance and need to account for sublimation in future hydrological and mass balance studies in the Himalaya