Health inequities and clustering of fever, acute respiratory infection, diarrhoea and wasting in children under five in low- and middle-income countries: a Demographic and Health Surveys analysis

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia, diarrhoea and malaria are responsible for over one third of all deaths in children under the age of 5 years in low and middle sociodemographic index countries; many of these deaths are also associated with malnutrition. We explore the co-occurrence and clustering of fever, acute respiratory infection, diarrhoea and wasting and their relationship with equity-relevant variables. METHODS: Multilevel, multivariate Bayesian logistic regression models were fitted to Demographic and Health Survey data from over 380,000 children in 39 countries. The relationship between outcome indicators (fever, acute respiratory infection, diarrhoea and wasting) and equity-relevant variables (wealth, access to health care and rurality) was examined. We quantified the geographical clustering and co-occurrence of conditions and a child's risk of multiple illnesses. RESULTS: The prevalence of outcomes was very heterogeneous within and between countries. There was marked spatial clustering of conditions and co-occurrence within children. For children in the poorest households and those reporting difficulties accessing healthcare, there were significant increases in the probability of at least one of the conditions in 18 of 21 countries, with estimated increases in the probability of up to 0.23 (95% CrI, 0.06-0.40). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of fever, acute respiratory infection, diarrhoea and wasting are associated with equity-relevant variables and cluster together. Via pathways of shared aetiology or risk, those children most disadvantaged disproportionately suffer from these conditions. This highlights the need for horizontal approaches, such as integrated community case management, with a focus on equity and targeted to those most at need

A model of parity-dependent immunity to placental malaria

C1 - Journal Articles RefereedPlasmodium falciparum placental infection during pregnancy is harmful for both mother and child. Protection from placental infection is parity-dependent, that is, acquired over consecutive pregnancies. However, the infection status of the placenta can only be assessed at delivery. Here, to better understand the mechanism underlying this parity-dependence, we fitted a model linking malaria dynamics within the general population to observed placental histology. Our results suggest that immunity resulting in less prolonged infection is a greater determinant of the parity-specific patterns than immunity that prevents placental sequestration. Our results also suggest the time when maternal blood first flows into the placenta is a high-risk period. Therefore, preventative strategies implementable before or early in pregnancy, such as insecticide-treated net usage in women of child-bearing age or any future vaccine, could substantially reduce the number of women who experience placental infection

Estimating spatiotemporally varying malaria reproduction numbers in a near elimination setting

In 2016 the World Health Organization identified 21 countries that could eliminate malaria by 2020. Monitoring progress towards this goal requires tracking ongoing transmission. Here we develop methods that estimate individual reproduction numbers and their variation through time and space. Individual reproduction numbers, Rc, describe the state of transmission at a point in time and differ from mean reproduction numbers, which are averages of the number of people infected by a typical case. We assess elimination progress in El Salvador using data for confirmed cases of malaria from 2010 to 2016. Our results demonstrate that whilst the average number of secondary malaria cases was below one (0.61, 95% CI 0.55–0.65), individual reproduction numbers often exceeded one. We estimate a decline in Rc between 2010 and 2016. However we also show that if importation is maintained at the same rate, the country may not achieve malaria elimination by 2020

Seasonal use case for the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND: A 2021 clinical trial of seasonal RTS,S/AS01E (RTS,S) vaccination showed that vaccination was non-inferior to seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) in preventing clinical malaria. The combination of these two interventions provided significant additional protection against clinical and severe malaria outcomes. Projections of the effect of this novel approach to RTS,S vaccination in seasonal transmission settings for extended timeframes and across a range of epidemiological settings are needed to inform policy recommendations. METHODS: We used a mathematical, individual-based model of malaria transmission that was fitted to data on the relationship between entomological inoculation rate and parasite prevalence, clinical disease, severe disease, and deaths from multiple sites across Africa. The model was validated with results from a phase 3b trial assessing the effect of SV-RTS,S in Mali and Burkina Faso. We developed three intervention efficacy models with varying degrees and durations of protection for our population-level modelling analysis to assess the potential effect of an RTS,S vaccination schedule based on age (doses were delivered to children aged 6 months, 7·5 months, and 9 months for the first three doses, and at 27 months of age for the fourth dose) or season (children aged 5-17 months at the time of first vaccination received the first three doses in the 3 months preceding the transmission season, with any subsequent doses up to five doses delivered annually) in seasonal transmission settings both in the absence and presence of SMC with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine. This is modelled as a full therapeutic course delivered every month for four or five months of the peak in transmission season. Estimates of cases and deaths averted in a population of 100 000 children aged 0-5 years were calculated over a 15-year time period for a range of levels of malaria transmission intensity (Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence in children aged 2-10 years between 10% and 65%) and over two west Africa seasonality archetypes. FINDINGS: Seasonally targeting RTS,S resulted in greater absolute reductions in malaria cases and deaths compared with an age-based strategy, averting an additional 14 000-47 000 cases per 100 000 children aged 5 years and younger over 15 years, dependent on seasonality and transmission intensity. We predicted that adding seasonally targeted RTS,S to SMC would reduce clinical incidence by up to an additional 42 000-67 000 cases per 100 000 children aged 5 years and younger over 15 years compared with SMC alone. Transmission season duration was a key determinant of intervention effect, with the advantage of adding RTS,S to SMC predicted to be smaller with shorter transmission seasons. INTERPRETATION: RTS,S vaccination in seasonal settings could be a valuable additional tool to existing interventions, with seasonal delivery maximising the effect relative to an age-based approach. Decisions surrounding deployment strategies of RTS,S in such settings will need to consider the local and regional variations in seasonality, current rates of other interventions, and potential achievable RTS,S coverage. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, UK Foreign Commonwealth & Development Office, The Wellcome Trust, and The Royal society

Ivermectin as a novel complementary malaria control tool to reduce incidence and prevalence: a modelling study

BACKGROUND: Ivermectin is a potential new vector control tool to reduce malaria transmission. Mosquitoes feeding on a bloodmeal containing ivermectin have a reduced lifespan, meaning they are less likely to live long enough to complete sporogony and become infectious. We aimed to estimate the effect of ivermectin on malaria transmission in various scenarios of use. METHODS: We validated an existing population-level mathematical model of the effect of ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) on the mosquito population and malaria transmission against two datasets: clinical data from a cluster- randomised trial done in Burkina Faso in 2015 wherein ivermectin was given to individuals taller than 90 cm and entomological data from a study of mosquito outcomes after ivermectin MDA for onchocerciasis or lymphatic filariasis in Burkina Faso, Senegal, and Liberia between 2008 and 2013. We extended the existing model to include a range of complementary malaria interventions (seasonal malaria chemoprevention and MDA with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine) and to incorporate new data on higher doses of ivermectin with a longer mosquitocidal effect. We consider two ivermectin regimens: a single dose of 400 μg/kg (1 × 400 μg/kg) and three consecutive daily doses of 300 μg/kg per day (3 × 300 μg/kg). We simulated the effect of these two doses in a range of usage scenarios in different transmission settings (highly seasonal, seasonal, and perennial). We report percentage reductions in clinical incidence and slide prevalence. FINDINGS: We estimate that MDA with ivermectin will reduce prevalence and incidence and is most effective in areas with highly seasonal transmission. In a highly seasonal moderate transmission setting, three rounds of ivermectin only MDA at 3 × 300 μg/kg (rounds spaced 1 month apart) and 70% coverage is predicted to reduce clinical incidence by 71% and prevalence by 34%. We predict that adding ivermectin MDA to seasonal malaria chemoprevention in this setting would reduce clinical incidence by an additional 77% in children younger than 5 years compared with seasonal malaria chemoprevention alone; adding ivermectin MDA to MDA with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine in this setting would reduce incidence by an additional 75% and prevalence by an additional 64% (all ages) compared with MDA with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine alone. INTERPRETATION: Our modelling predictions suggest that ivermectin could be a valuable addition to the malaria control toolbox, both in areas with persistently high transmission where existing interventions are insufficient and in areas approaching elimination to prevent resurgence. FUNDING: Imperial College Junior Research Fellowship

Malar J

Background While sub-microscopic malarial infections are frequent and potentially deleterious during pregnancy, routine molecular detection is still not feasible. This study aimed to assess the performance of a Histidine Rich Protein 2 (HRP2)-based ultrasensitive rapid diagnostic test (uRDT, Alere Malaria Ag Pf) for the detection of infections of low parasite density in pregnant women. Methods This was a retrospective study based on samples collected in Benin from 2014 to 2017. A total of 942 whole blood samples collected in 327 women in the 1st and 3rd trimesters and at delivery were tested by uRDT, conventional RDT (cRDT, SD BIOLINE Malaria Ag Pf), microscopy, quantitative polymerase chain-reaction (qPCR) and Luminex-based suspension array technology targeting P. falciparum HRP2. The performance of each RDT was evaluated using qPCR as reference standard. The association between infections detected by uRDT, but not by cRDT, with poor maternal and birth outcomes was assessed using multivariate regression models. Results The overall positivity rate detected by cRDT, uRDT, and qPCR was 11.6% (109/942), 16.2% (153/942) and 18.3% (172/942), respectively. Out of 172 qPCR-positive samples, 68 were uRDT-negative. uRDT had a significantly better sensitivity (60.5% [52.7–67.8]) than cRDT (44.2% [36.6–51.9]) and a marginally decreased specificity (93.6% [91.7–95.3] versus 95.7% [94.0–97.0]). The gain in sensitivity was particularly high (33%) and statistically significant in the 1st trimester. Only 28 (41%) out of the 68 samples which were qPCR-positive, but uRDT-negative had detectable but very low levels of HRP2 (191 ng/mL). Infections that were detected by uRDT but not by cRDT were associated with a 3.4-times (95%CI 1.29–9.19) increased risk of anaemia during pregnancy. Conclusions This study demonstrates the higher performance of uRDT, as compared to cRDTs, to detect low parasite density P. falciparum infections during pregnancy, particularly in the 1st trimester. uRDT allowed the detection of infections associated with maternal anaemia

Febrile illness diagnostics and the malaria-industrial complex: a socio-environmental perspective

Abstract Background Global prioritization of single-disease eradication programs over improvements to basic diagnostic capacity in the Global South have left the world unprepared for epidemics of chikungunya, Ebola, Zika, and whatever lies on the horizon. The medical establishment is slowly realizing that in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), particularly urban areas, up to a third of patients suffering from acute fever do not receive a correct diagnosis of their infection. Main body Malaria is the most common diagnosis for febrile patients in low-resource health care settings, and malaria misdiagnosis has soared due to the institutionalization of malaria as the primary febrile illness of SSA by international development organizations and national malaria control programs. This has inadvertently created a “malaria-industrial complex” and historically obstructed our complete understanding of the continent’s complex communicable disease epidemiology, which is currently dominated by a mélange of undiagnosed febrile illnesses. We synthesize interdisciplinary literature from Ghana to highlight the complexity of communicable disease care in SSA from biomedical, social, and environmental perspectives, and suggest a way forward. Conclusion A socio-environmental approach to acute febrile illness etiology, diagnostics, and management would lead to substantial health gains in Africa, including more efficient malaria control. Such an approach would also improve global preparedness for future epidemics of emerging pathogens such as chikungunya, Ebola, and Zika, all of which originated in SSA with limited baseline understanding of their epidemiology despite clinical recognition of these viruses for many decades. Impending ACT resistance, new vaccine delays, and climate change all beckon our attention to proper diagnosis of fevers in order to maximize limited health care resources