Sepsis carries a high mortality among hospitalised adults in Malawi in the era of antiretroviral therapy scale-up: A longitudinal cohort study

Objective: To assess mortality risk among adults presenting to an African teaching hospital with sepsis and severe sepsis in a setting of high HIV prevalence and widespread ART uptake. Methods: Prospective cohort study of adults (age ≥16 years) admitted with clinical suspicion of severe infection between November 2008 and January 2009 to Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, a 1250-bed government-funded hospital in Blantyre, Malawi. Demographic, clinical and laboratory information, including blood and cerebrospinal fluid cultures were obtained on admission. Results: Data from 213 patients (181 with sepsis and 32 with severe sepsis; M:F = 2:3) were analysed. 161 (75.6%) patients were HIV-positive. Overall mortality was 22%, rising to 50% amongst patients with severe sepsis. The mortality of all sepsis patients commenced on antiretroviral therapy (ART) within 90 days was 11/28 (39.3%) compared with 7/42 (16.7%) among all sepsis patients on ART for greater than 90 days (p = 0.050). Independent associations with death were hypoxia (OR = 2.4; 95% CI, 1.1-5.1) and systolic hypotension (OR 7.0; 95% CI: 2.4-20.4). Conclusions: Sepsis and severe sepsis carry high mortality among hospitalised adults in Malawi. Measures to reduce this, including early identification and targeted intervention in high-risk patients, especially HIV-positive individuals recently commenced on ART, are urgently required

Severity Assessment of Lower Respiratory Tract Infection in Malawi: Derivation of a Novel Index (SWAT-Bp) Which Outperforms CRB-65

OBJECTIVE: To assess the validity of CRB-65 (Confusion, Respiratory rate >30 breaths/min, BP<90/60 mmHg, age >65 years) as a pneumonia severity index in a Malawian hospital population, and determine whether an alternative score has greater accuracy in this setting. DESIGN: Forty three variables were prospectively recorded during the first 48 hours of admission in all patients admitted to Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Malawi, for management of lower respiratory tract infection over a two month period (N = 240). Calculation of sensitivity and specificity for CRB-65 in predicting mortality was followed by multivariate modeling to create a score with superior performance in this population. RESULTS: Median age 37, HIV prevalence 79.9%, overall mortality 18.3%. CRB-65 predicted mortality poorly, indicated by the area under the ROC curve of 0.649. Independent predictors of death were: Male sex, “S” (AOR 2.6); Wasting, “W” (AOR 6.6); non-ambulatory, “A” (AOR 2.5); Temp >38°C or <35°C, “T” (AOR 3.2); BP<100/60, “Bp” (AOR 3.7). Combining these factors to form a severity index (SWAT-Bp) predicted mortality with high sensitivity and specificity (AUC: 0.867). Mortality for scores 0–5 was 0%, 3.3%, 7.4%, 29.2%, 61.5% and 87.5% respectively. A score ≥3 was 84% sensitive and 77% specific for mortality prediction, with a negative predictive value of 95.8%. CONCLUSION: CRB-65 performs poorly in this population. The SWAT-Bp score can accurately stratify patients; ≤2 indicates non-severe infection (mortality 4.4%) and ≥3 severe illness (mortality 45%)

Individual Facial Coloration in Male Eulemur fulvus rufus: A Condition-dependent Ornament?

Researchers studying individual variation in conspicuous skin coloration in primates have suggested that color indicates male quality. Although primate fur color can also be flamboyant, the potential condition dependence and thus signaling function of fur remains poorly studied. We studied sources of variation in sexually dichromatic facial hair coloration in red-fronted lemurs (Eulemur fulvus rufus). We collected data on 13 adult males in Kirindy Forest, Madagascar, during two study periods in 2006 and 2007, to determine whether variation in facial hair coloration correlates with male age, rank, androgen status, and reproductive success. We quantified facial hair coloration via standardized digital photographs of each male, assessed androgen status using fecal hormone measurements, and obtained data on reproductive success through genetic paternity analyses. Male facial hair coloration showed high individual variation, and baseline coloration was related to individual androgen status but not to any other parameter tested. Color did not reflect rapid androgen changes during the mating season. However, pronounced long-term changes in androgen levels between years were accompanied by changes in facial hair coloration. Our data suggest that facial hair coloration in red-fronted lemur males is under proximate control of androgens and may provide some information about male quality, but it does not correlate with dominance rank or male reproductive success

ROC curves for mortality prediction by SWAT-Bp and CRB-65 scores.

<p>ROC curves for mortality prediction by SWAT-Bp and CRB-65 scores.</p

CRB-65 and SWAT-Bp scores; mortality prediction and test characteristics.

<p>CRB-65 and SWAT-Bp scores; mortality prediction and test characteristics.</p

The effect of a tuberculosis chest X-ray image reference set on non-expert reader performance

Objectives In low-resource settings, limitations in diagnostic accuracy of chest X-rays (CXR) for pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) relate partly to non-expert interpretation. We piloted a TB CXR Image Reference Set (TIRS) to improve non-expert performance in an operational setting in Malawi. Methods Nineteen doctors and clinical officers read 60 CXR of patients with suspected PTB, at baseline and using TIRS. Two officers also used the CXR Reading and Recording System (CRRS). Correct treatment decisions were assessed against a “gold standard” of mycobacterial culture and expert performance. Results TIRS significantly increased overall non-expert sensitivity from 67.6 (SD 14.9) to 75.5 (SD 11.1, P = 0.013), approaching expert values of 84.2 (SD 5.2). Among doctors, correct decisions increased from 60.7 % (SD 7.9) to 67.1 % (SD 8.0, P = 0.054). Clinical officers increased in sensitivity from 68.0 % (SD 15) to 77.4 % (SD 10.7, P = 0.056), but decreased in specificity from 55.0 % (SD 23.9) to 40.8 % (SD 10.4, P = 0.049). Two officers made correct treatment decisions with TIRS in 62.7 %. CRRS training increased this to 67.8 %. Conclusion Use of a CXR image reference set increased correct decisions by doctors to treat PTB. This tool may provide a low-cost intervention improving non-expert performance, translating into improved clinical care. Further evaluation is warranted

Validating a novel index (SWAT-Bp) to predict mortality risk of community-acquired pneumonia in Malawi.

Background Community-acquired pneumonia is a major cause of mortality worldwide. Early assessment and initiation of management improves outcomes. In higher-income countries, scores assist in predicting mortality from pneumonia. These have not been validated for use in most lower-income countries. Aim To validate a new score, the SWAT-Bp score, in predicting mortality risk of clinical community-acquired pneumonia amongst hospital admissions at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi. Methods The five variables constituting the SWAT-Bp score (male [S]ex, muscle [W]asting, non-[A]mbulatory, [T]emperature (>38°C or <35°C) and [B]lood [p]ressure (systolic<100 and/or diastolic<60)) were recorded for all patients with clinical presentation of a lower respiratory tract infection, presumed to be pneumonia, over four months (N=216). The sensitivity and specificity of the score were calculated to determine accuracy of predicting mortality risk. Results Median age was 35 years, HIV prevalence was 84.2% amongst known statuses, and mortality rate was 12.5%. Mortality for scores 0-5 was 0%, 8.5%, 12.7%, 19.0%, 28.6%, 100% respectively. Patients were stratified into three mortality risk groups dependent on their score. SWAT-Bp had moderate discriminatory power overall (AUROC 0.744). A SWAT-Bp score of ≥2 was 82% sensitive and 51% specific for predicting mortality, thereby assisting in identifying individuals with a lower mortality risk. Conclusion In this validation cohort, the SWAT-Bp score has not performed as well as in the derivation cohort. However, it could potentially assist clinicians identifying low-risk patients, enabling rapid prioritisation of treatment in a low-resource setting, as it helps contribute towards individual patient risk stratification