14 research outputs found

    Integrated Modeling Approach for the Development of Climate-Informed, Actionable Information

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    Flooding is a prevalent natural disaster with both short and long-term social, economic, and infrastructure impacts. Changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation (including rain, snow, and rain-on-snow) events create challenges for the planning and management of resilient infrastructure and communities. While there is general acknowledgment that new infrastructure design should account for future climate change, no clear methods or actionable information are available to community planners and designers to ensure resilient designs considering an uncertain climate future. This research demonstrates an approach for an integrated, multi-model, and multi-scale simulation to evaluate future flood impacts. This research used regional climate projections to drive high-resolution hydrology and flood models to evaluate social, economic, and infrastructure resilience for the Snohomish Watershed, WA, USA. Using the proposed integrated modeling approach, the peaks of precipitation and streamflows were found to shift from spring and summer to the earlier winter season. Moreover, clear non-stationarities in future flood risk were discovered under various climate scenarios. This research provides a clear approach for the incorporation of climate science in flood resilience analysis and to also provides actionable information relative to the frequency and intensity of future precipitation events

    Land-cover impacts on streamflow: a change-detection modelling approach that incorporates parameter uncertainty

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    The effect of land-use or land-cover change on stream runoff dynamics is not fully understood. In many parts of the world, forest management is the major land-cover change agent. While the paired catchment approach has been the primary methodology used to quantify such effects, it is only possible for small headwater catchments where there is uniformity in precipitation inputs and catchment characteristics between the treatment and control catchments. This paper presents a model-based change-detection approach that includes model and parameter uncertainty as an alternative to the traditional paired-catchment method for larger catchments. We use the HBV model and data from the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest in Oregon, USA, to develop and test the approach on two small (1 km2)) headwater catchments (a 100% clear-cut and a control) and then apply the technique to the larger 62 km2 Lookout catchment. Three different approaches are used to detect changes in stream peak flows using: (a) calibration for a period before (or after) change and simulation of runoff that would have been observed without land-cover changes (reconstruction of runoff series); (b) comparison of calibrated parameter values for periods before and after a land-cover change; and (c) comparison of runoff predicted with parameter sets calibrated for periods before and after a land-cover change. Our proof-of-concept change detection modelling showed that peak flows increased in the clear-cut headwater catchment, relative to the headwater control catchment, and several parameter values in the model changed after the clear-cutting. Some minor changes were also detected in the control, illustrating the problem of false detections. For the larger Lookout catchment, moderately increased peak flows were detected. Monte Carlo techniques used to quantify parameter uncertainty and compute confidence intervals in model results and parameter ranges showed rather wide distributions of model simulations. While this makes change detection more difficult, it also demonstrated the need to explicitly consider parameter uncertainty in the modelling approach to obtain reliable results

    Biogeochemistry and microbiology of groundwater during acetate and bicarbonate amendment to an alluvial aquifer

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    Field-scale biostimulation and desorption tracer experiments conducted in a uranium (U) contaminated, shallow alluvial aquifer have provided insight into the coupling of microbiology, biogeochemistry, and hydrogeology that control U mobility in the subsurface. Initial experiments successfully tested the concept that Fe-reducing bacteria such as Geobacter sp. could enzymatically reduce soluble U(VI) to insoluble U(IV) during in situ electron donor amendment (Anderson et al., 2003; Williams et al., 2011). In parallel, in situ desorption tracer tests using bicarbonate amendment demonstrated rate-limited U(VI) desorption (Fox et al., 2012). These results and prior laboratory studies underscored the importance of enzymatic U(VI)-reduction and suggested the ability to combine desorption and bioreduction of U(VI). Here we report the results of a new field experiment in which bicarbonate-promoted uranium desorption and acetate amendment were combined and compared to an acetate amendment-only experiment in the same experimental plot. Results confirm that bicarbonate amendment to alluvial aquifer sediments desorbs U(VI) and increases the abundance of Ca-uranyl-carbonato complexes. At the same time, the rate of acetate-promoted enzymatic U(VI) reduction was greater in the presence of added bicarbonate in spite of the increased dominance of Ca-uranyl-carbonato aqueous complexes. A model-simulated peak rate of U(VI) reduction was ~3.8 times higher during acetate-bicarbonate treatment than under acetate-only conditions. Lack of consistent differences in microbial community structure between acetate-bicarbonate and acetate-only treatments suggest that a significantly higher rate of U(VI) reduction in the bicarbonate-impacted sediment may be due to a higher intrinsic rate of microbial reduction induced by elevated concentrations of the bicarbonate oxyanion. The findings indicate that bicarbonate amendment may be useful in improving the engineered bioremediation of uranium in aquifers
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