Explaining Exchange Rate Forecasts with Macroeconomic Fundamentals Using Interpretive Machine Learning

The complexity and ambiguity of financial and economic systems, along with frequent changes in the economic environment, have made it difficult to make precise predictions that are supported by theory-consistent explanations. Interpreting the prediction models used for forecasting important macroeconomic indicators is highly valuable for understanding relations among different factors, increasing trust towards the prediction models, and making predictions more actionable. In this study, we develop a fundamental-based model for the Canadian-U.S. dollar exchange rate within an interpretative framework. We propose a comprehensive approach using machine learning to predict the exchange rate and employ interpretability methods to accurately analyze the relationships among macroeconomic variables. Moreover, we implement an ablation study based on the output of the interpretations to improve the predictive accuracy of the models. Our empirical results show that crude oil, as Canada's main commodity export, is the leading factor that determines the exchange rate dynamics with time-varying effects. The changes in the sign and magnitude of the contributions of crude oil to the exchange rate are consistent with significant events in the commodity and energy markets and the evolution of the crude oil trend in Canada. Gold and the TSX stock index are found to be the second and third most important variables that influence the exchange rate. Accordingly, this analysis provides trustworthy and practical insights for policymakers and economists and accurate knowledge about the predictive model's decisions, which are supported by theoretical considerations

Comparison of Macrozoobenthic Abundance in Seagrass Ecosystem During Full and Neap Moon at Panggang Island Seribu Islands

Macrozoobenthic is one of the organisms whose existence is widely present in the seagrass ecosystem. This study aimed to analyze the differences in individual abundance and macrozoobenthic species in full-moons and neap, to see the correlation of macrozoobenthic abundance with seagrass closure, and to know the contribution of macrozoobenthic species to seagrass habitat. The study was conducted in Panggang Island with 3 makrozoobenthic observation stations in the seagrass ecosystem at March and April 2016. Makrozoobenthic data collection in seagrass systematically using 1x1 m quadrant transect method and 10 cm diameter corer for infauna. Analyzing the density, seagrass cover and macrozoobenthic abundance. Analysis statistics of macrozoobenthic abundance data using ANOVA test, macrozoobenthic density correlation with seagrass cover using simple linear regression and contribution of species on full moon and neap using SIMPER analysis. The result of this research shows that there is no real difference of macrozoobenthic individual abundance in full moon and neap. While the species obtained significant significant differences. The SIMPER analysis shows the highest contribution of macrozoobenthic species in each station on the full moon and the neap is the species of Cerithium salebrosum. Conclusions The density of macrozoobenthic species shows a marked difference in the full moon and the neap, but not the individual abundance

TRANSVERSE VAGINAL SEPTUM: A CONGENITAL MALFORMATION AND ITS MANAGEMENT IN A FEMALE DROMEDARY CAMEL

A seven year old female dromedary camel was examined for the complaint of inability to breed due to problem during penile intromission. Vaginoscopy, using equine tube vaginoscope, revealed the presence of a tissue flap cranial to the urethral opening, buldging caudally and separating the cranial and caudal parts of vagina. Digital palpation was also performed and the condition was diagnosed as transverse vaginal septum. For treatment, the vaginal septum was grasped with an Allis tissue forceps and a circular piece was severed from the center with the Metzenbaum scissors. The remaining portion of septum was then carefully trimmed. About 28 days after surgery, the animal showed heat signs and was mated. On ultrasonographic examination three months, post mating the animal was found pregnant

Development of Biopreneurship Project-Based Module for Junior High School Students in Mandalika Lombok Special Economic Zone

The development of entrepreneurial literacy is crucial for students to prepare themselves to benefit from the current development of the Mandalika Lombok Special Economic Zone (SEZ). The purpose of this study is to develop a project-based science module focusing on biopreneurship to enhance students' entrepreneurial literacy. This research is a development study that adopts the Dick and Carey model. The research data consist of a description of the development of the science module and its theoretical feasibility. The feasibility of the science module is analyzed using Aiken’s V formula. The research results indicate that the expert assessment of the feasibility of the biopreneurship-based project-based science module shows a percentage of 77.3% in the category of being suitable for use. Meanwhile, the biopreneurship project worksheets have a percentage of 73.9% in the category of being suitable for use. Additionally, the learning steps have a percentage of 80.0% in the category of being suitable for use in teaching and learning. The conclusion of this study is that the development of the project-based biopreneurship science module can be effectivelyi used to enhance students' entrepreneurial literacy.Pengembangan literasi kewirausahaan sangat penting bagi siswa guna mempersiapkan diri dalam mengambil manfaat dari pengembangan Kawasan Ekonomi Khusus (KEK) Mandalika Lombok saat ini. Berkaitan dengan hal tersebut, diperlukan bahan ajar berupa modul pembelajaran yang memfasilitasi belajar siswa dengan menitikberatkan kegiatan proyek dengan memadukan antara konsep-konsep biologi dengan kewirausahaan. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mengembangkan modul IPA berbasis proyek biopreneurship untuk meningkatkan literasi kewirausahaan siswa. Penelitian ini adalah penelitian pengembangan dengan mengadopsi model Dick and Carey. Data penelitian berupa deskripsi pengembangan modul IPA dan kelayakan dari segi teoritis. Analisis data kelayakan modul IPA dengan formula Aiken’s V. Hasil penelitian bahwa penilaian ahli terhadap kelayakan modul IPA berbasis proyek biopreneurship menunjukkan presentase 77,3% dengan kategori layak digunakan, sedangkan lembar kerja proyek biopreneurship memiliki presentase 73,9% dengan kategori layak digunakan, kemudian langkah pembelajaran memiliki presentase 80,0% dengan kategori layak digunakan. Kesimpulan dari penelitian ini adalah pengembangan modul IPA berbasis proyek biopreneurship memiliki kelayakan yang memadai digunakan dalam upaya meningkatkan literasi kewirausahaan sisw

Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP)-Based Nonlinear Auto-Regressive with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) Stock Forecasting Model

The prediction of stocks in the stock market is important in investment as it would help the investor to time buy and sell transactions to maximize profits. In this paper, a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP)-based Nonlinear Auto-Regressive with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) model was used to predict the prices of the Apple Inc. weekly stock prices over a time horizon of 1995 to 2013. The NARX model belongs is a system identification model that constructs a mathematical model from the dynamic input/output readings of the system, and predicts the future behaviour of the system based on the constructed mathematical model. The One Step Ahead (OSA) and correlation tests were used to test validate the model. Results demonstrate the predictive ability of the model while producing Gaussian residuals (indicating the validity of the model)

Dual-Band Bandpass Filter with Dumbbell Shaped Defective Ground Structure

A dumbbell shaped defective ground structure (DGS) is implemented to improve the performance of an existing dual-band bandpass filter topology. The filter design is based on parallel-coupled lines connected to matched transmission lines. Various positions and dimensions of dumbbell DGSs are implemented and their effects on the filter performance are investigated. It is found that the utilisation of dumbbell shaped DGSs in this topology improve the steepness of the responses for the first and second passbands with centre frequencies of 1.365 and 2.932 GHz respectively. The optimised dimensions of the DGS are 5 x 5 mm2 for both its rectangular slots connected by a 0.5 mm narrow slot width. The optimised positions of the DGSs are located at the centre and the edges of the parallel-coupled lines. The simulated and measured results of the filter are analysed and discussed in this paper

Pre-harvest foliar application of mineral nutrients to retard chlorophyll degradation and preserve bio-active compounds in broccoli

Foliar application of micronutrients has become a common farm management practice to increase the overall yield of various crops. However, the effects of foliar fertilization on shelf life and postharvest quality of the crops are rather under-researched. The aim of this field experiment was to evaluate the effect of foliar application of individual mineral nutrients (calcium (Ca), zinc (Zn), manganese (Mn), and iron (Fe) on pre and postharvest quality of broccoli. The broccoli plants were subjected to single foliar sprays of either Ca, Fe, Zn, or Mn, which was repeated four times during plant growth at a 1 g/kg concentration. Once harvested, the broccoli heads were refrigerated at 4 °C for 28 days. Our results indicated that foliar application of Ca, Zn, Mn, and Fe did not have a significant effect on plant growth parameters, apart from enhancing Soil Plant Analysis Development (SPAD) chlorophyll meter values. However, during postharvest, foliar application treatment showed a positive response on weight loss during storage and reduction in yellowing of the broccoli heads. Foliar treatments increased the concentration of Nitrogen (N), Phosphorus (P), Ca, Zn, Mn and Fe significantly in the broccoli head tissue. Total chlorophyll content, total phenolic compound, ascorbic acid, peroxidase activity, glucoraphanin and glucobrassicin and flavonoids were significantly increased by all foliar treatments. Crude protein content and sulforaphane were enhanced by Ca and Mn treatments. Overall, foliar application of the investigated mineral nutrients may prove beneficial in improving the shelf-life and nutrient content of broccoli during postharvest handling and storage

Damage detection and quantification in composite beam structure using strain energy and vibration data

10.1088/1742-6596/842/1/012027Journal of Physics: Conference Series84211202

Radiation pattern reconfigurable fm antenna

In this work, a radiation pattern reconfigurable antenna design using compact printed spiral monopoles that operates at 102 MHz is reported. The proposed antenna changes its radiation behaviour that responds towards a desired direction with the use of RF switches. The antenna is printed on a 76.6mm × 50mm PCB layer providing more than 20MHz bandwidth at -10 dB threshold and is easily fabricated with low manufacturing cost. The antenna was also simulated on 500mm × 500mm ground plane that represents the roof top of a vehicl