Applications of Bayesian Networks as Decision Support Tools for Water Resource Management under Climate Change and Socio-Economic Stressors: A Critical Appraisal

Bayesian networks (BNs) are widely implemented as graphical decision support tools which use probability inferences to generate “what if?” and “which is best?” analyses of potential management options for water resource management, under climate change and socio-economic stressors. This paper presents a systematic quantitative literature review of applications of BNs for decision support in water resource management. The review quantifies to what extent different types of data (quantitative and/or qualitative) are used, to what extent optimization-based and/or scenario-based approaches are adopted for decision support, and to what extent different categories of adaptation measures are evaluated. Most reviewed publications applied scenario-based approaches (68%) to evaluate the performance of management measures, whilst relatively few studies (18%) applied optimization-based approaches to optimize management measures. Institutional and social measures (62%) were mostly applied to the management of water-related concerns, followed by technological and engineered measures (47%), and ecosystem-based measures (37%). There was no significant difference in the use of quantitative and/or qualitative data across different decision support approaches (p = 0.54), or in the evaluation of different categories of management measures (p = 0.25). However, there was significant dependence (p = 0.076) between the types of management measure(s) evaluated, and the decision support approaches used for that evaluation. The potential and limitations of BN applications as decision support systems are discussed along with solutions and recommendations, thereby further facilitating the application of this promising decision support tool for future research priorities and challenges surrounding uncertain and complex water resource systems driven by multiple interactions amongst climatic and non-climatic changes. View Full-Tex

Transforming Environmental Water Management to Adapt to a Changing Climate

Environmental water management has become a global imperative in response to environmental degradation and the growing recognition that human well-being and livelihoods are critically dependent on freshwater ecosystems and the ecological functions and services they provide. Although a wide range of techniques and strategies for planning and implementing environmental flows has developed, many remain based on assumptions of hydrologic stationarity, typically focusing on restoring freshwater ecosystems to pre-development or “natural” conditions. Climate change raises major challenges to this conventional approach, in part because of increasing uncertainties in patterns of water supply and demand. In such a rapidly changing world, the implementation of, and capacity of water managers to deliver flow regimes resembling historical hydrological patterns may be both unfeasible and undesirable. Additionally, as emphasis shifts from species-focused water allocation plans toward a greater appreciation of freshwater ecological functions and services, many of which will be influenced by climate change, a thorough re-evaluation of the conventional objectives, planning, delivery and monitoring of environmental water, including its role in the broader context of water and environmental management, is essential. Here, we identify the major challenges posed by climate change to environmental water management and discuss key adaptations and research needed to meet these challenges to achieve environmental and societal benefits and avoid maladaptation

Prognostic Impact of KRAS Mutation Subtypes in 677 Patients with Metastatic Lung Adenocarcinomas

BackgroundWe previously demonstrated that patients with metastatic KRAS mutant lung cancers have a shorter survival compared with patients with KRAS wild-type cancers. Recent reports have suggested different clinical outcomes and distinct activated signaling pathways depending on KRAS mutation subtype. To better understand the impact of KRAS mutation subtype, we analyzed data from 677 patients with KRAS mutant metastatic lung cancer.MethodsWe reviewed all patients with metastatic or recurrent lung cancers found to have KRAS mutations over a 6-year time period. We evaluated the associations among KRAS mutation type, clinical factors, and overall survival in univariate and multivariate analyses. Any significant findings were validated in an external multi-institution patient dataset.ResultsAmong 677 patients with KRAS mutant lung cancers (53 at codon 13, 624 at codon 12), there was no difference in overall survival for patients when comparing KRAS transition versus transversion mutations (p = 0.99), smoking status (p = 0.33), or when comparing specific amino acid substitutions (p = 0.20). In our dataset, patients with KRAS codon 13 mutant tumors (n = 53) had shorter overall survival compared with patients with codon 12 mutant tumors (n = 624) (1.1 versus 1.3 years, respectively; p = 0.009), and the findings were confirmed in a multivariate Cox model controlling for age, sex, and smoking status (hazard ratio: 1.52, 95% confidence interval: 1.11–2.08; p = 0.008). In an independent validation set of tumors from 682 patients with stage IV KRAS mutant lung cancers, there was no difference in survival between patients with KRAS codon 13 versus codon 12 mutations (1.0 versus 1.1 years, respectively; p = 0.41).ConclusionsAmong individuals with KRAS mutant metastatic lung cancers treated with conventional therapy, there are no apparent differences in outcome based on KRAS mutation subtype

Conservation successes and challenges for wide-ranging sharks and rays

Overfishing is the most significant threat facing sharks and rays. Given the growth in consumption of seafood, combined with the compounding effects of habitat loss, climate change, and pollution, there is a need to identify recovery paths, particularly in poorly managed and poorly monitored fisheries. Here, we document conservation through fisheries management success for 11 coastal sharks in US waters by comparing population trends through a Bayesian state-space model before and after the implementation of the 1993 Fisheries Management Plan for Sharks. We took advantage of the spatial and temporal gradients in fishing exposure and fisheries management in the Western Atlantic to analyze the effect on the Red List status of all 26 wide-ranging coastal sharks and rays. We show that extinction risk was greater where fishing pressure was higher, but this was offset by the strength of management engagement (indicated by strength of National and Regional Plan of Action for sharks and rays). The regional Red List Index (which tracks changes in extinction risk through time) declined in all regions until the 1980s but then improved in the North and Central Atlantic such that the average extinction risk is currently half that in the Southwest. Many sharks and rays are wide ranging, and successful fisheries management in one country can be undone by poorly regulated or unregulated fishing elsewhere. Our study underscores that well-enforced, science-based management of carefully monitored fisheries can achieve conservation success, even for slow-growing species

Examining the efficacy of localised gemcitabine therapy for the treatment of pancreatic cancer using a hybrid agent-based model

The prognosis for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) patients has not significantly improved in the past 3 decades, highlighting the need for more effective treatment approaches. Poor patient outcomes and lack of response to therapy can be attributed, in part, to a lack of uptake of perfusion of systemically administered chemotherapeutic drugs into the tumour. Wet-spun alginate fibres loaded with the chemotherapeutic agent gemcitabine have been developed as a potential tool for overcoming the barriers in delivery of systemically administrated drugs to the PDAC tumour microenvironment by delivering high concentrations of drug to the tumour directly over an extended period. While exciting, the practicality, safety, and effectiveness of these devices in a clinical setting requires further investigation. Furthermore, an in-depth assessment of the drug-release rate from these devices needs to be undertaken to determine whether an optimal release profile exists. Using a hybrid computational model (agent-based model and partial differential equation system), we developed a simulation of pancreatic tumour growth and response to treatment with gemcitabine loaded alginate fibres. The model was calibrated using in vitro and in vivo data and simulated using a finite volume method discretisation. We then used the model to compare different intratumoural implantation protocols and gemcitabine-release rates. In our model, the primary driver of pancreatic tumour growth was the rate of tumour cell division. We were able to demonstrate that intratumoural placement of gemcitabine loaded fibres was more effective than peritumoural placement. Additionally, we quantified the efficacy of different release profiles from the implanted fibres that have not yet been tested experimentally. Altogether, the model developed here is a tool that can be used to investigate other drug delivery devices to improve the arsenal of treatments available for PDAC and other difficult-to-treat cancers in the future

Understanding the limits to generalizability of experimental evolutionary models.

Post print version of article deposited in accordance with SHERPA RoMEO guidelines. The final definitive version is available online at: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v455/n7210/abs/nature07152.htmlGiven the difficulty of testing evolutionary and ecological theory in situ, in vitro model systems are attractive alternatives; however, can we appraise whether an experimental result is particular to the in vitro model, and, if so, characterize the systems likely to behave differently and understand why? Here we examine these issues using the relationship between phenotypic diversity and resource input in the T7-Escherichia coli co-evolving system as a case history. We establish a mathematical model of this interaction, framed as one instance of a super-class of host-parasite co-evolutionary models, and show that it captures experimental results. By tuning this model, we then ask how diversity as a function of resource input could behave for alternative co-evolving partners (for example, E. coli with lambda bacteriophages). In contrast to populations lacking bacteriophages, variation in diversity with differences in resources is always found for co-evolving populations, supporting the geographic mosaic theory of co-evolution. The form of this variation is not, however, universal. Details of infectivity are pivotal: in T7-E. coli with a modified gene-for-gene interaction, diversity is low at high resource input, whereas, for matching-allele interactions, maximal diversity is found at high resource input. A combination of in vitro systems and appropriately configured mathematical models is an effective means to isolate results particular to the in vitro system, to characterize systems likely to behave differently and to understand the biology underpinning those alternatives

Molecular Phylodynamics of the Heterosexual HIV Epidemic in the United Kingdom

The heterosexual risk group has become the largest HIV infected group in the United Kingdom during the last 10 years, but little is known of the network structure and dynamics of viral transmission in this group. The overwhelming majority of UK heterosexual infections are of non-B HIV subtypes, indicating viruses originating among immigrants from sub-Saharan Africa. The high rate of HIV evolution, combined with the availability of a very high density sample of viral sequences from routine clinical care has allowed the phylodynamics of the epidemic to be investigated for the first time. Sequences of the viral protease and partial reverse transcriptase coding regions from 11,071 patients infected with HIV of non-B subtypes were studied. Of these, 2774 were closely linked to at least one other sequence by nucleotide distance. Including the closest sequences from the global HIV database identified 296 individuals that were in UK-based groups of 3 or more individuals. There were a total of 8 UK-based clusters of 10 or more, comprising 143/2774 (5%) individuals, much lower than the figure of 25% obtained earlier for men who have sex with men (MSM). Sample dates were incorporated into relaxed clock phylogenetic analyses to estimate the dates of internal nodes. From the resulting time-resolved phylogenies, the internode lengths, used as estimates of maximum transmission intervals, had a median of 27 months overall, over twice as long as obtained for MSM (14 months), with only 2% of transmissions occurring in the first 6 months after infection. This phylodynamic analysis of non-B subtype HIV sequences representing over 40% of the estimated UK HIV-infected heterosexual population has revealed heterosexual HIV transmission in the UK is clustered, but on average in smaller groups and is transmitted with slower dynamics than among MSM. More effective intervention to restrict the epidemic may therefore be feasible, given effective diagnosis programmes

Overfishing Drives Over One-Third of All Sharks and Rays Toward a Global Extinction Crisis

The scale and drivers of marine biodiversity loss are being revealed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessment process. We present the first global reassessment of 1,199 species in Class Chondrichthyes-sharks, rays, and chimeras. The first global assessment (in 2014) concluded that one-quarter (24%) of species were threatened. Now, 391 (32.6%) species are threatened with extinction. When this percentage of threat is applied to Data Deficient species, more than one-third (37.5%) of chondrichthyans are estimated to be threatened, with much of this change resulting from new information. Three species are Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct), representing possibly the first global marine fish extinctions due to overfishing. Consequently, the chondrichthyan extinction rate is potentially 25 extinctions per million species years, comparable to that of terrestrial vertebrates. Overfishing is the universal threat affecting all 391 threatened species and is the sole threat for 67.3% of species and interacts with three other threats for the remaining third: loss and degradation of habitat (31.2% of threatened species), climate change (10.2%), and pollution (6.9%). Species are disproportionately threatened in tropical and subtropical coastal waters. Science-based limits on fishing, effective marine protected areas, and approaches that reduce or eliminate fishing mortality are urgently needed to minimize mortality of threatened species and ensure sustainable catch and trade of others. Immediate action is essential to prevent further extinctions and protect the potential for food security and ecosystem functions provided by this iconic lineage of predators