Probabilistic aspects of bivariate counting systems

Imperial Users onl

Support or subvert? Assessing devolution’s effect on central power during Kenya’s 2017 presidential rerun

Devolution introduced new local-level political offices in order to transform Kenyan politics by reducing the high stakes around the presidential race. The controversy over the 2017 presidential election rerun, however, saw pressure on county-level politicians to support either the ruling party or opposition coalition, underlining the important intersection between national and county politics. Using a broadened definition of ‘political linkages’, this paper explores the logics shaping how and why county-level politicians responded to the rerun as they did, comparing ruling party and opposition areas. Different forms of linkage politics indicate that devolution’s effect on central power is not uniform across counties, challenging the view that devolution simply leads to a recentralisation of power. The reproduction of national partisan divides at the county level suggests that devolution’s effect on central power is contingent partly on the way that national and county political alliances intersect. Given Kenya’s fluid national electoral alliances, devolution’s effect on central power is therefore not stable and may change with each electoral cycle

Exploring the Descriptive Representation of Women: The Case of the National Assembly of Wales

With the devolved institutions nearing their 20th anniversary, the Scottish Parliament, National Assembly for Wales and the Northern Ireland Assembly have changed the face of politics within the United Kingdom. The National Assembly for Wales, in particular, has made extensive advances in the field of female representation, notably being the first devolved legislature to achieve perfect gender parity. However, the question remains as to whether this parity was achieved through luck or design. This dissertation draws on the work of Pitkin to identify the importance of the relationship between both substantive and descriptive representation and then explores the concepts and contemporary academia to identify the leading theories within this field. The National Assembly will then be analysed in order to establish the measures that have been put in place by the institution in order to protect and promote a commitment to the equality of representation. Four political parties within the National Assembly for Wales will be assessed including the Welsh Labour Party, Welsh Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Conservatives drawing on evidence from 1999–2016. Both chapters will draw upon semi-structured interviews conducted with the Diversity and Inclusion Team and female Assembly Members from across political parties in order to allow for conclusions to be drawn as to what the most influential factors have been in the success of the National Assembly’s female representation, and whether the Assembly has been successful due to luck or design

Investigating the effect of diet on human sperm parameters and global sperm DNA methylation

Male fertility has been declining over the past 50 years, vindicating demand for further research into the aetiological agent(s) responsible for this reduction in sperm count and quality. It is suggested that modern lifestyle factors including diet & sedentary lifestyle are culpable. Veganism has gained recent popularity by those conscious of ethical food sourcing and the impact of the meat industry upon the climate. In addition to these environmental benefits, adoption of a vegan diet also confers health benefits. There have been associations between a plant-based diet and reduced risk of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes and reduced body mass index (BMI). Abnormal BMI is already well established to have negative effects on reproductive health. However, a lack of research into the effect of vegan diet on sperm methylation is yet to be explored. Male volunteers aged 22-40 years of age were recruited from the Manchester area, in reply to adverts placed around the university campus and through social media. Participants provided semen samples via masturbation and completed a food frequency questionnaire including questions regarding lifestyle, diet and biometrics. Participants were separated into cohorts according to self-reported dietary subscription. Omnivorous (n=5) and vegan (n=5). Sperm progressive motility, concentration, total sperm count, volume, pH and vitality were all measured. Sperm cells were isolated from semen via density gradient centrifugation; DNA was extracted from the sperm and an ELISA-based assay to assess sperm global methylation status was performed. Means of sperm parameters were compared via unpaired t-tests for the two dietary cohorts, as were means of the global methylation data for the two dietary cohorts. Biometrics & Lifestyle factors were evaluated as potential confounding factors via unpaired t-tests and Fisher’s contingency test. None were significant and therefore did not need to be controlled for. All data collected were also pooled into a combined cohort, and correlational analyses and linear regression performed to identify any associations between sperm parameters and global methylation, biostatistics & lifestyle factors and global methylation, sperm parameters and biostatistics & lifestyle factors, and interactions between sperm parameters all within the combined cohort. Statistically significant positive correlations were observed between combined cohort sperm progressive motility and concentration (r=0.7766, p=0.0082**) and sperm motility and vitality (r=0.6535, p=0.0404*). No other statistically significant correlations were identified in the analysis of this study. The key aim of this pilot study was to determine whether subscription to an omnivorous or vegan diet has any significant effect on the methylation signature and quality of human sperm DNA. No such relationship was demonstrated in the results of this study, with no significant differences in sperm parameters or sperm DNA global methylation between omnivorous and vegan diets. This research alone suggests that subscription to an omnivorous or vegan diet has no bearing on the quality or methylation level of sperm DNA. Moving forward, further research should be carried out within a larger population to confirm these findings

Allocating commodity volumes in the citrus export cold chain: A case for the Port of Durban

Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 2021.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In this study, the feasibility of using “forced” allocation as a mechanism to aide in alleviating capacity challenges at the Port of Durban is explored and insights on the impact of reallocation to the citrus export cold chain is provided. The use of the mechanism is explored by limiting the allowable citrus throughput that may be handled at the Port of Durban for varying through put scenarios, and using allocation techniques to allocate the allowable citrus throughput amongst the competing production regions. An allocation model framework is formulated to optimally allocate the total citrus export volumes in a season to each of the South African ports that export citrus, taking into account the allowable port throughput constraint at the Port of Durban. The allocation model framework is modelled as a minimum cost transport problem and is solved using linear programming. The results of the 2019 actual export season for citrus exports is compared to the results of the 2019 forecasted export season to determine if there is a single suitable allocation technique that can be used to allocate the allowable port throughput to the production regions in the allocation model framework for future export seasons. The results show that there is no single suitable allocation technique, and so allocations on forecasted citrus export volumes must be done on a case-by-case basis. A possible export plan for the 2021 forecasted export season is calculated using the allocation model framework for each scenario to provide a baseline export plan for the different allowable throughput scenario’s at the Port of Durban. The forecasted citrus export volumes are forecasted using a four period double moving average forecasting model. The feasibility of using “forced” allocation as mechanism to alleviate capacity challenges faced at the Port of Durban is assessed on two criteria, namely the availability of theoretical excess capacity at the alternate ports to handle the citrus volumes reallocated and the change in total transport cost to the citrus export cold chain. The assessment of the criteria, and the analysis of the results, indicate that the use of “forced” allocation is feasible in the majority of, but not in all of the port throughput scenarios. Even though it is feasible in terms of the available capacity, there is, however, an increased transport cost to the citrus export cold chain in the majority of the scenario’s analysed. This additional transport cost must be weighed up against the cost of congestion and lost time, and will have to be absorbed by the citrus export cold chain. Eventhough there is an increase in transport cost, which can affect the total citrus export cold chain by as much as +35.2% (in the worst case scenario), the mechanism is deemed feasible as the impact of the increased transport cost is a relative measure that will have a varying impact amongst the different stakeholders of the citrus export cold chain and so each stakeholder will have to decide independently if it is feasible to them. The study achieved its primary aim of alleviating capacity pressures at the Port of Durban by reallocating citrus volumes to all South African ports that can handle citrus under different levels of available capacity at the Port of Durban. Therefore, “forced” allocation is deemed a good alternative solution to the current congested situation.AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie ondersoek die lewensvatbaarheid van “geforseerde” toewysing as ’n meganisme om te help met die verligting van kapasiteitsuitdagings by Durban-hawe. Verder word insigte oor die impak van hertoewysing op die sitrus uitvoer-koue-ketting verskaf. Die gebruik van hierdie meganisme word ondersoek deur die toelaatbare sitrus deurvoer wat by Durban-hawe hanteer kan word vir verskillende deurvoer scenario’s te beperk, en gebruik te maak van toekenningstegnieke om die toelaatbare sitrusdeurvoer aan die mededingende produksiestreke toe te wys. ’n Toekenningsmodelraamwerk word geformuleer om die totale sitrusuitvoervolumes in ’n seisoen optimal aan elk van die Suid-Afrikaanse sitrus hawens toe te wys, met inagneming van die toelaatbare hawedeurvoerbeperking by Durban-hawe. Die toekenningsmodelraamwerk is gemodelleer as ’n minimum koste vervoerprobleem en word deur die gebruik van liniere programmering opgelos.Die resultate van die 2019 werklike uitvoerseisoen vir sitrusuitvoere word vergelyk met die resultate van die 2019 voorspelde uitvoerseisoen om te bepaal of daar ’n enkele geskikte toekenningstegniek is wat gebruik kan word om die toelaatbare hawedeurvoer aan die produksiestreke in die toekenningsmodelraamwerk vir toekomstige uitvoerseisoene toe te wys. Die resultate toon dat daar geen enkele geskikte toekenningstegniek is nie, dus moet toekennings op vooruitgeskatte sitrus uitvoervolumes op ’n geval-tot-geval grondslag gedoen word. ’n Moontlike uitvoerplan vir die 2021 vooruitgeskatte uitvoerseisoen word bereken deur gebruik te maak van die toeken-ningsmodelraamwerk vir elke scenario om ’n basislyn-uitvoerplan vir die verskillende toelaatbare deurvoerscenario’s by Durban-hawe te verskaf. Die sitrus uitvoervolumes word voorspel deur ’n vier-tydperk-dubbelbewegende-gemiddelde-vooruitskattingsmodel. Die haalbaarheid van die gebruik van “geforseerde” toewysing as meganisme om kapasiteitsuitdagings wat Durban-hawe in die gesig staar te verlig, word op twee kriteria geassesseer, naamlik: die beskikbaarheid van teoretiese oortollige kapasiteit by die alternatiewe hawens om die sitrusvolumes te hanteer, en die verandering in totale vervoerkoste aan die sitrusuitvoer-koue-ketting. Die assessering van die kriteria, en die ontleding van die resultate, dui daarop dat die gebruik van “geforseerde” toekenning haalbaar is in die meerderheid, maar nie in al die hawedeurvoerscenario’s nie. Alhoewel dit haalbaar is in terme van die beskikbare kapasiteit, is daar egter ’n verhoogde vervoerkoste vir die sitrusuitvoer-koue-ketting in die meerderheid van die scenario’s wat ontleed is. Hierdie addisionele vervoerkoste moet opgeweeg word teen die koste van opeenhoping, asook verlore tyd, en sal deur die sitrusuitvoer-koue-ketting geabsorbeer moet word. Selfs al is daar ’n verhoging in vervoerkoste wat die totale sitrusuitvoer-koue-ketting met soveel as +35.2% (in die slegste geval scenario) kan verhoog, word die meganisme as haalbaar geag aangesien die impak van die verhoogde vervoerkoste ’n relatiewe maatstaf is wat ’n wisselende impak op die verskillende belanghebbendes van die sitrusuitvoer-koue-ketting sal he, dus sal elke belanghebbende onafhanklik moet besluit of dit lewensvatbaar vir hulle sal wees. Die studie het geslaag in sy primere doel, naamlik die verligting van kapasiteitsdruk by Durban-hawe, deur die hertoewysing van sitrus volumes aan al die sitrus hawens, onder verskillende vlakke van kapasiteit beskikbaarheid by Durban-hawe. Gevolglik word ”geforseerde” toewysing as ’n goeie alternatiewe oplossing vir die huidige oorlaaide situasie beskou.Master

A PowerPack of SuperScientists: An innovative concept by African scientists to address gender bias and inequity in science [version 2; peer review: 1 approved, 1 approved with reservations]

Underrepresentation of women in scientific leadership is a global problem. To understand and counter narratives that limit gender equity in African science, we conducted a public engagement campaign. Scientists representing six sub-Saharan African countries and multiple career stages used superhero imagery to create a diverse and unified team advocating for gender equity in science. In contrast to many traditional scientific environments and global campaigns, this “PowerPack of SuperScientists” was led by early-career Black female scientists whose perspectives are often under-represented in discussions about gender equity in science. The superhero imagery served as a powerful and fun antidote to imposter syndrome and helped to subvert traditional power structures based on age, race and sex. In an interactive social media campaign, the PowerPack developed insights into three themes: a) cultural stereotypes that limit women’s scientific careers, b) the perception of a “conflict” between family and career responsibilities for women scientists, and c) solutions that can be adopted by key stakeholders to promote gender equity in African science. The PowerPack proposed solutions that could be undertaken by women working individually or collectively and interventions that require allyship from men, commitment from scientific institutions, and wider societal change. Further work is required to fully engage African scientists from even more diverse and disadvantaged backgrounds and institutions in these solutions and to enhance commitment by different stakeholders to achieving gender equity in science. Our experience suggests that creative tools should be used to subvert power dynamics and bring fresh perspectives and urgency to this topic.</ns4:p

Regenerative tourism: the challenge of transformational leadership

Purpose – The aims of this paper are to share how one cohort of tourism practitioners viewed the transformative change needed within the tourism industry and to explore the implications for leadership in the future. Design/methodology/approach – The research design is based on a virtual whiteboard brainstorming activity incorporating both the individual and collective thinking of 20 participants in a global cohort class. Using conversational techniques to elicit cognitive knowledge and felt experience, the methodology generates shared understandings about the opportunities and challenges of implementing regenerative tourism. Findings – The conversations reported in the findings of this paper provide important insights into the challenges and opportunities faced by tourism professionals as enablers of regenerative tourism. Findings included, first, that participants within the course demonstrated characteristics of transformational leadership including a strong moral positioning, embodied self-awareness, collaboration and collective action. Second, specific points of inertia that impede regenerative tourism are identified including embedded culture, power and organisational structures. Third, professionals are calling for practical tools, new frames of reference, and examples to help communicate regenerative tourism. Research limitations/implications – This is a viewpoint, not a research paper. Nonetheless, it provides a rich vein of future research in terms of disruptive pedagogy, potentially gendered interest in regenerative tourism, issues of transforming the next generation and power. Practical implications – Governance, organisational, destination management strategies, planning and policy frameworks, individual issues as well as contradictions within the tourism system were revealed. Transformative change in an uncertain future requires transformational leadership, characterised by moral character and behaviours that trigger empowered responses. Originality/value – This paper shares insights from a unique global cohort class of tourism professionals wherein the challenges and opportunities for regenerative tourism are identified. The methodology is unusual in that it incorporates both individual and collective thinking through which shared understandings emerge

‘A show of numbers’ : campaign rallies and performing elite alliance-building in Kenya

Campaign rallies are commonly understood as events where politicians appeal to a crowd of prospective voters to politically mobilise them. This article argues that an underexplored dimension of rallies is where they are used as performances to shape alliance-building between subnational and national politicians. Through focusing on two rallies organised by gubernatorial campaigns in Marsabit county, Kenya, for the president during the 2017 elections, the article shows how these rallies were used as tools to secure electoral alliances with the president’s campaign. It shows how organisers choreographed the crowd – through colour, props and positioning – to perform to the president their grassroots popularity, to secure electoral and post-election futures. This article builds on scholarship that takes a more complex look at what messages are performed at rallies, by and to whom, and how. It also offers insights on how elite alliance-building and devolution operate in a particular sub-national setting in Kenya