Predicting the seasonal evolution of southern African summer precipitation in the DePreSys3 prediction system

We assess the ability of the DePreSys3 prediction system to predict austral summer precipitation (DJF) over southern Africa, defined as the African continent south of 15°S. DePresys3 is a high resolution prediction system (at a horizontal resolution of ~ 60 km in the atmosphere in mid-latitudes and of the quarter degree in the Ocean) and spans the long period 1959–2016. We find skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability, relative to a long-term trend; the anomaly correlation skill score over southern Africa is greater than 0.45 for the first summer (i.e. lead month 2–4), and 0.37 over Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Zambia for the second summer (i.e. lead month 14–16). The skill is related to the successful prediction of the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the successful simulation of ENSO teleconnections to southern Africa. However, overall skill is sensitive to the inclusion of strong La-Nina events and also appears to change with forecast epoch. For example, the skill in predicting precipitation over Mozambique is significantly larger for the first summer in the 1990–2016 period, compared to the 1959–1985 period. The difference in skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability over southern Africa in different epochs is consistent with a change in the strength of the observed teleconnections of ENSO. After 1990, and consistent with the increased skill, the observed impact of ENSO appears to strengthen over west Mozambique, in association with changes in ENSO related atmospheric convergence anomalies. However, these apparent changes in teleconnections are not captured by the ensemble-mean predictions using DePreSys3. The changes in the ENSO teleconnection are consistent with a warming over the Indian Ocean and modulation of ENSO properties between the different epochs, but may also be associated with unpredictable atmospheric variability

Leptospira seroprevalence and associations between seropositivity, clinical disease and host factors in horses

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A cross-sectional study was carried out to determine the seroprevalence of different serovars of <it>Leptospira </it>spp. and their association with clinical disease and host factors in Swedish horses.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Sera from 2017 horses brought to equine clinics during 1997–98 were investigated. The sera were examined by microscopic agglutination test for the presence of antibodies against the following <it>L. interrogans </it>serovars: Bratislava strain Jez, Icterohaemorrhagiae strain Kantorowicz and Pomona strain Pomona and also <it>L. kirschneri </it>sv Grippotyphosa strain Duyster and <it>L. borgpetersenii </it>sv Sejroe strain M 84. Host factors, disease factors, season, pasture access and outdoor confinement variables were analysed with respect to seropositivity to sv Bratislava and Icterohaemorrhagiae. Multivariable logistic regression was used to model seropositivity to sv Bratislava and Icterohaemorrhagiae (seroprevalence > 8%).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The seroprevalence, at a cut-off 1:100, were for sv Bratislava (16.6%), Icterohaemorrhagiae (8.3%), Sejroe (1.2%), Pomona (0.5%) and Grippotyphosa (0.4%). In the multivariable analysis, it was demonstrated that seroprevalence increased with age for sv Bratislava and Icterohaemorrhagiae. For sv Bratislava the seasons April – June and October – December and for sv Icterohaemorrhagiae October – December had higher seroprevalences than other seasons. Horses not used for racing had higher levels of seropositivity to sv Bratislava. Furthermore, horses with respiratory problems as well as horses with fatigue had higher levels of seropositivity to sv Bratislava. Ponies and coldbloods, and horses with access to pasture, had lower seroprevalence for sv Icterohaemorrhagiae. Healthy horses had lower seroprevalence for sv Icterohaemorrhagiae, than non-healthy horses.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>There was no significant association between clinical signs and disease and positive titres to sv Bratislava (except for the association between respiratory problems and fatigue and seropositivity to sv Bratislava). The results suggest that horses with increasing age and exposed to factors associated with outdoor life had an increased seroprevalence for sv Bratislava, indicating that horses get infected from outdoor and/or are exposed to shedding from other horses (management dependent). For sv Icterohaemorrhagiae, management possibly plays a role as ponies and coldbloods as well as healthy horses had lower seroprevalence. Overall, the age of the horse should be taken into consideration when evaluating the titre as the average healthy horse has a higher titre than a young horse.</p

Scale formation on Ni-based alloys in simulated solid oxide fuel cell interconnect environments

Recent publications suggest that the environment on the fuel side of the bi-polar stainless steel SOFC interconnects changes the oxidation behavior and morphology of the scale formed on the air side. The U.S. Department of Energy Albany Research Center (ARC), has examined the role of such exposure conditions on advanced nickel base alloys. Alloy formulations developed at ARC and commercial alloys were studied using X-ray diffraction (XRD) and Raman spectroscopy. The electrical property of oxide scales formed on selected alloys was determined in terms of areaspecific resistance (ASR). The corrosion behavior of ARC nickel-based alloys exposed to a dual environment of air/ H2 were compared to those of Crofer 22APU and Haynes 230

Using Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy (REBT) with Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) Athletes to Reduce Irrational Beliefs and Increase Unconditional Self-Acceptance

© 2016, Springer Science+Business Media New York. The reported application of rational emotive behavior therapy (REBT) with athletes is growing but remains scarce within sport psychology literature. This study used a single-case multiple-baseline across participants design to investigate the effects of REBT on irrational self-depreciation beliefs and unconditional self-acceptance (USA) with three male mixed martial arts (MMA) athletes. Visual and statistical analyses indicate a reduction in total irrationality and self-depreciation and an increase in USA, which was maintained at 6 months post-REBT for two of the three athletes. Social validation data revealed positive changes in emotion management and performance in all athletes. The mechanisms by which REBT promoted changes in self-depreciation and USA are discussed as are recommendations regarding the future implementation of REBT with athletes