FluTE, a Publicly Available Stochastic Influenza Epidemic Simulation Model

Mathematical and computer models of epidemics have contributed to our understanding of the spread of infectious disease and the measures needed to contain or mitigate them. To help prepare for future influenza seasonal epidemics or pandemics, we developed a new stochastic model of the spread of influenza across a large population. Individuals in this model have realistic social contact networks, and transmission and infections are based on the current state of knowledge of the natural history of influenza. The model has been calibrated so that outcomes are consistent with the 1957/1958 Asian A(H2N2) and 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) influenza viruses. We present examples of how this model can be used to study the dynamics of influenza epidemics in the United States and simulate how to mitigate or delay them using pharmaceutical interventions and social distancing measures. Computer simulation models play an essential role in informing public policy and evaluating pandemic preparedness plans. We have made the source code of this model publicly available to encourage its use and further development

A 'small-world-like' model for comparing interventions aimed at preventing and controlling influenza pandemics

BACKGROUND: With an influenza pandemic seemingly imminent, we constructed a model simulating the spread of influenza within the community, in order to test the impact of various interventions. METHODS: The model includes an individual level, in which the risk of influenza virus infection and the dynamics of viral shedding are simulated according to age, treatment, and vaccination status; and a community level, in which meetings between individuals are simulated on randomly generated graphs. We used data on real pandemics to calibrate some parameters of the model. The reference scenario assumes no vaccination, no use of antiviral drugs, and no preexisting herd immunity. We explored the impact of interventions such as vaccination, treatment/prophylaxis with neuraminidase inhibitors, quarantine, and closure of schools or workplaces. RESULTS: In the reference scenario, 57% of realizations lead to an explosive outbreak, lasting a mean of 82 days (standard deviation (SD) 12 days) and affecting 46.8% of the population on average. Interventions aimed at reducing the number of meetings, combined with measures reducing individual transmissibility, would be partly effective: coverage of 70% of affected households, with treatment of the index patient, prophylaxis of household contacts, and confinement to home of all household members, would reduce the probability of an outbreak by 52%, and the remaining outbreaks would be limited to 17% of the population (range 0.8%–25%). Reactive vaccination of 70% of the susceptible population would significantly reduce the frequency, size, and mean duration of outbreaks, but the benefit would depend markedly on the interval between identification of the first case and the beginning of mass vaccination. The epidemic would affect 4% of the population if vaccination started immediately, 17% if there was a 14-day delay, and 36% if there was a 28-day delay. Closing schools when the number of infections in the community exceeded 50 would be very effective, limiting the size of outbreaks to 10% of the population (range 0.9%–22%). CONCLUSION: This flexible tool can help to determine the interventions most likely to contain an influenza pandemic. These results support the stockpiling of antiviral drugs and accelerated vaccine development

Cooperativity Dominates the Genomic Organization of p53-Response Elements: A Mechanistic View

p53-response elements (p53-REs) are organized as two repeats of a palindromic DNA segment spaced by 0 to 20 base pairs (bp). Several experiments indicate that in the vast majority of the human p53-REs there are no spacers between the two repeats; those with spacers, particularly with sizes beyond two nucleotides, are rare. This raises the question of what it indicates about the factors determining the p53-RE genomic organization. Clearly, given the double helical DNA conformation, the orientation of two p53 core domain dimers with respect to each other will vary depending on the spacer size: a small spacer of 0 to 2 bps will lead to the closest p53 dimer-dimer orientation; a 10-bp spacer will locate the p53 dimers on the same DNA face but necessitate DNA looping; while a 5-bp spacer will position the p53 dimers on opposite DNA faces. Here, via conformational analysis we show that when there are 0–2 bp spacers, p53-DNA binding is cooperative; however, cooperativity is greatly diminished when there are spacers with sizes beyond 2 bp. Cooperative binding is broadly recognized to be crucial for biological processes, including transcriptional regulation. Our results clearly indicate that cooperativity of the p53-DNA association dominates the genomic organization of the p53-REs, raising questions of the structural organization and functional roles of p53-REs with larger spacers. We further propose that a dynamic landscape scenario of p53 and p53-REs can better explain the selectivity of the degenerate p53-REs. Our conclusions bear on the evolutionary preference of the p53-RE organization and as such, are expected to have broad implications to other multimeric transcription factor response element organization

E2F-1 induces melanoma cell apoptosis via PUMA up-regulation and Bax translocation

BACKGROUND: PUMA is a pro-apoptotic Bcl-2 family member that has been shown to be involved in apoptosis in many cell types. We sought to ascertain whether induction of PUMA plays a crucial role in E2F-1-induced apoptosis in melanoma cells. METHODS: PUMA gene and protein expression levels were detected by real-time PCR and Western blot in SK-MEL-2 and HCT116 cell lines after Ad-E2F-1 infection. Activation of the PUMA promoter by E2F-1 overexpression was detected by dual luciferase reporter assay. E2F-1-induced Bax translocation was shown by immunocytochemistry. The induction of caspase-9 activity was measured by caspase-9 colorimetric assay kit. RESULTS: Up-regulation of the PUMA gene and protein by E2F-1 overexpression was detected by real-time PCR and Western blot analysis in the SK-MEL-2 melanoma cell line. In support of this finding, we found six putative E2F-1 binding sites within the PUMA promoter. Subsequent dual luciferase reporter assay showed that E2F-1 expression could increase the PUMA gene promoter activity 9.3 fold in SK-MEL-2 cells. The role of PUMA in E2F-1-induced apoptosis was further investigated in a PUMA knockout cell line. Cell viability assay showed that the HCT116 PUMA-/- cell line was more resistant to Ad-E2F-1-mediated cell death than the HCT116 PUMA+/+ cell line. Moreover, a 2.2-fold induction of the PUMA promoter was also noted in the HCT116 PUMA+/+ colon cancer cell line after Ad-E2F-1 infection. Overexpression of a truncated E2F-1 protein that lacks the transactivation domain failed to up-regulate PUMA promoter, suggesting that PUMA may be a transcriptional target of E2F-1. E2F-1-induced cancer cell apoptosis was accompanied by Bax translocation from the cytosol to mitochondria and the induction of caspase-9 activity, suggesting that E2F-1-induced apoptosis is mediated by PUMA through the cytochrome C/Apaf-1-dependent pathway. CONCLUSION: Our studies strongly demonstrated that E2F-1 induces melanoma cell apoptosis via PUMA up-regulation and Bax translocation. The signaling pathways provided here will further enhance insights on the mechanisms of E2F-1-induced cancer cell apoptosis as a strategy for cancer therapy

Incidence of Influenza in Healthy Adults and Healthcare Workers: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND: Working in healthcare is often considered a risk factor for influenza; however, this risk has not been quantified. We aimed to systematically review evidence describing the annual incidence of influenza among healthy adults and healthcare workers (HCWs). METHODS AND FINDINGS: We searched OVID MEDLINE (1950 to 2010), EMBASE (1947 to 2010) and reference lists of identified articles. Observational studies or randomized trials reporting full season or annual influenza infection rates for healthy, working age adult subjects and HCWs were included. Influenza infection was defined as a four-fold rise in antibody titer, or positive viral culture or polymerase chain reaction. From 24,707 citations, 29 studies covering 97 influenza seasons with 58,245 study participants were included. Pooled influenza incidence rates (IR) (95% confidence intervals (CI)) per 100 HCWs per season and corresponding incidence rate ratios (IRR) (95% CI) as compared to healthy adults were as follows. All infections: IR 18.7 (95% CI, 15.8 to 22.1), IRR 3.4 (95% CI, 1.2 to 5.7) in unvaccinated HCWs; IR 6.5 (95% CI, 4.6 to 9.1), IRR 5.4 (95% CI, 2.8 to 8.0) in vaccinated HCWs. Symptomatic infections: IR 7.5 (95% CI, 4.9 to 11.7), IRR 1.5 (95% CI, 0.4 to 2.5) in unvaccinated HCWs, IR 4.8 (95% CI, 3.2 to 7.2), IRR 1.6 (95% CI, 0.5 to 2.7) in vaccinated HCWs. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to adults working in non-healthcare settings, HCWs are at significantly higher risk of influenza

Epigenetic Regulation of HIV-1 Latency by Cytosine Methylation

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) persists in a latent state within resting CD4+ T cells of infected persons treated with highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). This reservoir must be eliminated for the clearance of infection. Using a cDNA library screen, we have identified methyl-CpG binding domain protein 2 (MBD2) as a regulator of HIV-1 latency. Two CpG islands flank the HIV-1 transcription start site and are methylated in latently infected Jurkat cells and primary CD4+ T cells. MBD2 and histone deacetylase 2 (HDAC2) are found at one of these CpG islands during latency. Inhibition of cytosine methylation with 5-aza-2′deoxycytidine (aza-CdR) abrogates recruitment of MBD2 and HDAC2. Furthermore, aza-CdR potently synergizes with the NF-κB activators prostratin or TNF-α to reactivate latent HIV-1. These observations confirm that cytosine methylation and MBD2 are epigenetic regulators of HIV-1 latency. Clearance of HIV-1 from infected persons may be enhanced by inclusion of DNA methylation inhibitors, such as aza-CdR, and NF-κB activators into current antiviral therapies

The cost of community-managed viral respiratory illnesses in a cohort of healthy preschool-aged children

Background : Acute respiratory illnesses (ARIs) during childhood are often caused by respiratory viruses, result in significant morbidity, and have associated costs for families and society. Despite their ubiquity, there is a lack of interdisciplinary epidemiologic and economic research that has collected primary impact data, particularly associated with indirect costs, from families during ARIs in children.Methods : We conducted a 12-month cohort study in 234 preschool children with impact diary recording and PCR testing of nose-throat swabs for viruses during an ARI. We used applied values to estimate a virus-specific mean cost of ARIs.Results : Impact diaries were available for 72% (523/725) of community-managed illnesses between January 2003 and January 2004. The mean cost of ARIs was AU$309 (95$263 to $354). Influenza illnesses had a mean cost of$904, compared with RSV, $304, the next most expensive single-virus illness, although confidence intervals overlapped. Mean carer time away from usual activity per day was two hours for influenza ARIs and between 30 and 45 minutes for all other ARI categories.Conclusion : From a societal perspective, community-managed ARIs are a significant cost burden on families and society. The point estimate of the mean cost of community-managed influenza illnesses in healthy preschool aged children is three times greater than those illnesses caused by RSV and other respiratory viruses. Indirect costs, particularly carer time away from usual activity, are the key cost drivers for ARIs in children. The use of parent-collected specimens may enhance ARI surveillance and reduce any potential Hawthorne effect caused by compliance with study procedures. These findings reinforce the need for further integrated epidemiologic and economic research of ARIs in children to allow for comprehensive cost-effectiveness assessments of preventive and therapeutic options.<br /

Non-monotonic changes in clonogenic cell survival induced by disulphonated aluminum phthalocyanine photodynamic treatment in a human glioma cell line

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Photodynamic therapy (PDT) involves excitation of sensitizer molecules by visible light in the presence of molecular oxygen, thereby generating reactive oxygen species (ROS) through electron/energy transfer processes. The ROS, thus produced can cause damage to both the structure and the function of the cellular constituents resulting in cell death. Our preliminary investigations of dose-response relationships in a human glioma cell line (BMG-1) showed that disulphonated aluminum phthalocyanine (AlPcS₂) photodynamically induced loss of cell survival in a concentration dependent manner up to 1 μM, further increases in AlPcS₂concentration (>1 μM) were, however, observed to decrease the photodynamic toxicity. Considering the fact that for most photosensitizers only monotonic dose-response (survival) relationships have been reported, this result was unexpected. The present studies were, therefore, undertaken to further investigate the concentration dependent photodynamic effects of AlPcS₂.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Concentration-dependent cellular uptake, sub-cellular localization, proliferation and photodynamic effects of AlPcS₂were investigated in BMG-1 cells by absorbance and fluorescence measurements, image analysis, cell counting and colony forming assays, flow cytometry and micronuclei formation respectively.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The cellular uptake as a function of extra-cellular AlPcS₂concentrations was observed to be biphasic. AlPcS₂was distributed throughout the cytoplasm with intense fluorescence in the perinuclear regions at a concentration of 1 μM, while a weak diffuse fluorescence was observed at higher concentrations. A concentration-dependent decrease in cell proliferation with accumulation of cells in G₂+M phase was observed after PDT. The response of clonogenic survival after AlPcS₂-PDT was non-monotonic with respect to AlPcS₂concentration.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Based on the results we conclude that concentration-dependent changes in physico-chemical properties of sensitizer such as aggregation may influence intracellular transport and localization of photosensitizer. Consequent modifications in the photodynamic induction of lesions and their repair leading to different modes of cell death may contribute to the observed non-linear effects.</p

Recruitment and Activation of RSK2 by HIV-1 Tat

The transcriptional activity of the integrated HIV provirus is dependent on the chromatin organization of the viral promoter and the transactivator Tat. Tat recruits the cellular pTEFb complex and interacts with several chromatin-modifying enzymes, including the histone acetyltransferases p300 and PCAF. Here, we examined the interaction of Tat with activation-dependent histone kinases, including the p90 ribosomal S6 kinase 2 (RSK2). Dominant-negative RSK2 and treatment with a small-molecule inhibitor of RSK2 kinase activity inhibited the transcriptional activity of Tat, indicating that RSK2 is important for Tat function. Reconstitution of RSK2 in cells from subjects with a genetic defect in RSK2 expression (Coffin-Lowry syndrome) enhanced Tat transactivation. Tat interacted with RSK2 and activated RSK2 kinase activity in cells. Both properties were lost in a mutant Tat protein (F38A) that is deficient in HIV transactivation. Our data identify a novel reciprocal regulation of Tat and RSK2 function, which might serve to induce early changes in the chromatin organization of the HIV LTR