Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in rural Africa using the hydrology, entomology and malaria transmission simulator (HYDREMATS)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in Banizoumbou village in western Niger. HYDREMATS is forced by observed rainfall, followed by a rainfall prediction based on the seasonal mean rainfall for a period two or four weeks into the future.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Predictions made using this method provided reasonable estimates of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, two to four weeks in advance. The predictions were significantly improved compared to those made when HYDREMATS was forced with seasonal mean rainfall alone.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>HYDREMATS can be used to make reasonable predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, and provide early warnings of the potential for malaria epidemics in Africa.</p

Canadian Arctic sea ice reconstructed from bromine in the Greenland NEEM ice core

Reconstructing the past variability of Arctic sea ice provides an essential context for recent multi-year sea ice decline, although few quantitative reconstructions cover the Holocene period prior to the earliest historical records 1,200 years ago. Photochemical recycling of bromine is observed over first-year, or seasonal, sea ice in so-called "bromine explosions" and we employ a 1-D chemistry transport model to quantify processes of bromine enrichment over first-year sea ice and depositional transport over multi-year sea ice and land ice. We report bromine enrichment in the Northwest Greenland Eemian NEEM ice core since the end of the Eemian interglacial 120,000 years ago, finding the maximum extension of first-year sea ice occurred approximately 9,000 years ago during the Holocene climate optimum, when Greenland temperatures were 2 to 3 degrees C above present values. First-year sea ice extent was lowest during the glacial stadials suggesting complete coverage of the Arctic Ocean by multi-year sea ice. These findings demonstrate a clear relationship between temperature and first-year sea ice extent in the Arctic and suggest multi-year sea ice will continue to decline as polar amplification drives Arctic temperatures beyond the 2 degrees C global average warming target of the recent COP21 Paris climate agreement

How Phytophthora cinnamomi became associated with the death of Eucalyptus marginata – the early investigations into jarrah dieback

The name jarrah dieback was used in the 1940s to describe a serious economic problem in the jarrah forest in the south west of Western Australia. This was the sudden death of groups of jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) trees that occurred on previously logged sites that had a tendency to become waterlogged in winter. Although the cause was not determined at the time, from symptoms recorded in early investigations the most likely explanation is that the trees died as the result of waterlogging damage. In the 1960s it was shown that many of these sites were infested by the introduced oomycete Phytophthora cinnamomi and tree deaths, together with the deaths of many mid- and under-storey plants, were attributed to this pathogen. A chronology of the research, based on contemporary unpublished documents, shows that in 1968 the conclusion that P. cinnamomi caused jarrah deaths was not supported by the available evidence, because the work did not satisfy the first and fourth of Koch’s postulates. The evidence that P. cinnamomi killed many mid- and under-storey plants was much stronger. There are two problems that have been confused: the death of groups of jarrah trees (jarrah dieback) that is caused by waterlogging and the death of many mid- and under-storey plants (Phytophthora dieback) caused by P. cinnamomi infection

Revised cutoff values of ALT and HBV DNA level can better differentiate HBeAg (-) chronic inactive HBV patients from active carriers

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background and Aims</p> <p>ELISA is still used as primary test for diagnosis HBV disease. However, ELISA-positive patients were marked as HBV inactive after confirmation with PCR and vice versa. Our aim was to assess the performance of new cut-off value of ALT, HBV DNA load and significance of AST as screening tool for HBeAg (-) chronic active or inactive patients in Pakistani population.</p> <p>Materials and methods</p> <p>In a cross-sectional, cohort study, 567 HBeAg (-) patients followed for one year were selected. Patients with persistent elevated ALT than normal and HBV DNA ≥ 100,000 copies/mL were taken as active chronic. Diagnostic values for ALT, AST and HBV DNA load in HBV HBeAg (-) chronic active and inactive patients compared using receiver operation characteristic (ROC) curves.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 567 HBeAg (-) patients, 228 were classified as chronic inactive and 339 as active. HBV infection was dominant in male. Serum ALT, AST and HBV DNA levels showed significant and high AUROC to differentiate chronic HBeAg (-) inactive patients from active. AUROC for Serum ALT, AST and HBV DNA were observed 0.997, 0.969 and 1.000, respectively. For revised cut off value for ALT (30 IU/L for male and 19 IU/L for female) and HBV DNA load ≥100,000 copies/mL, a PPV of 97%, NPV of 94%, a sensitivity of 98%, and a specificity of 92% was observed to discriminate active carriers from inactive carriers. We also observed 93.5% specificity, 83.1% sensitivity, 82% PPV and 89.5% NPV for AST ≤20 IU/L to differentiate inactive carriers from active ones in our study group.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Revised cut off value of ALT and NIH derived HBV DNA value can better discriminate between HBeAg (-) chronic active and inactive patients.</p

Connecting Health and Technology (CHAT): protocol of a randomized controlled trial to improve nutrition behaviours using mobile devices and tailored text messaging in young adults

Background: Increasing intakes of fruits and vegetables intake, in tandem with reducing consumption of energy-dense and nutrient poor foods and beverages are dietary priorities to prevent chronic disease. Although most adults do not eat enough fruit and vegetables, teenagers and young adults tend to have the lowest intakes. Young adults typically consume a diet which is inconsistent with the dietary recommendations. Yet little is known about the best approaches to improve dietary intakes and behaviours among this group. This randomised controlled trial aims to evaluate the effectiveness of using a mobile device to assess dietary intake, provide tailored dietary feedback and text messages to motivate changes in fruit, vegetable and junk food consumption among young adults

A randomized controlled trial to prevent glycemic relapse in longitudinal diabetes care: Study protocol (NCT00362193)

BACKGROUND: Diabetes is a common disease with self-management a key aspect of care. Large prospective trials have shown that maintaining glycated hemoglobin less than 7% greatly reduces complications but translating this level of control into everyday clinical practice can be difficult. Intensive improvement programs are successful in attaining control in patients with type 2 diabetes, however, many patients experience glycemic relapse once returned to routine care. This early relapse is, in part, due to decreased adherence in self-management behaviors. OBJECTIVE: This paper describes the design of the Glycemic Relapse Prevention study. The purpose of this study is to determine the optimal frequency of maintenance intervention needed to prevent glycemic relapse. The primary endpoint is glycemic relapse, which is defined as glycated hemoglobin greater than 8% and an increase of 1% from baseline. METHODS: The intervention consists of telephonic contact by a nurse practitioner with a referral to a dietitian if indicated. This intervention was designed to provide early identification of self-care problems, understanding the rationale behind the self-care lapse and problem solve to find a negotiated solution. A total of 164 patients were randomized to routine care (least intensive), routine care with phone contact every three months (moderate intensity) or routine care with phone contact every month (most intensive). CONCLUSION: The baseline patient characteristics are similar across the treatment arms. Intervention fidelity analysis showed excellent reproducibility. This study will provide insight into the important but poorly understood area of glycemic relapse prevention

Plasmodium falciparum Hep1 is required to prevent the self aggregation of PfHsp70-3

The majority of mitochondrial proteins are encoded in the nucleus and need to be imported from the cytosol into the mitochondria, and molecular chaperones play a key role in the efficient translocation and proper folding of these proteins in the matrix. One such molecular chaperone is the eukaryotic mitochondrial heat shock protein 70 (Hsp70); however, it is prone to self-aggregation and requires the presence of an essential zinc-finger protein, Hsp70-escort protein 1 (Hep1), to maintain its structure and function. PfHsp70-3, the only Hsp70 predicted to localize in the mitochondria of P. falciparum, may also rely on a Hep1 orthologue to prevent self-aggregation. In this study, we identified a putative Hep1 orthologue in P. falciparum and co-expression of PfHsp70-3 and PfHep1 enhanced the solubility of PfHsp70-3. PfHep1 suppressed the thermally induced aggregation of PfHsp70-3 but not the aggregation of malate dehydrogenase or citrate synthase, thus showing specificity for PfHsp70-3. Zinc ions were indeed essential for maintaining the function of PfHep1, as EDTA chelation abrogated its abilities to suppress the aggregation of PfHsp70-3. Soluble and functional PfHsp70-3, acquired by co-expression with PfHep-1, will facilitate the biochemical characterisation of this particular Hsp70 protein and its evaluation as a drug target for the treatment of malaria

Technology-supported learning innovation in cultural contexts

Many reform initiatives adopt a reductionist, proceduralized approach to cultural change, assuming that deep changes can be realized by introducing new classroom activities, textbooks, and technological tools. This article elaborates a complex system perspective of learning culture: A learning culture as a complex system involves macro-level properties (e.g., epistemological beliefs, social values, power structures) and micro-level features (e.g., technology, classroom activities). Deep changes in macro-level properties cannot be reduced to any component. This complex system perspective is applied to examining technology-supported educational change in East Asia and analyzing how teachers sustain the knowledge building innovation in different contexts. Working with the macro-micro dynamics in a learning culture requires a principle-based approach to learning innovation that specifies macro-level changes using principle-based instead of procedure-based terms and engages teachers’ deep reflection and creative engagement at both the macro- and the micro-level

Do Worry and Brooding Predict Health Behaviors? A Daily Diary Investigation

Background Meta-analyses have reported associations between perseverative cognition (both worry and brooding) and increased engagement in health-risk behaviors, poorer sleep, and poorer physiological health outcomes. Method Using a daily diary design, this study investigated the within- and between-person relationships between state and trait perseverative cognition and health behaviors (eating behavior, physical activity, alcohol consumption, and sleep) both crosssectionally and prospectively. Participants (n = 273, 93% students, Mage = 20.2, SD = 4.11, 93% female) completed morning and evening diaries across 7 consecutive days. Results Multilevel modeling analyses revealed that, cross-sectionally, higher levels of state worry were associated with more time spent sitting and higher levels of state brooding predicted less daily walking. Conclusion Worry and brooding may represent useful intervention targets for improving inactivity and walking levels, respectively