Phase randomisation: a convergence diagnostic test for MCMC

Most MCMC users address the convergence problem by applying diagnostic tools to the output produced by running their samplers. Potentially useful diagnostics may be borrowed from diverse areas such as time series. One such method is phase randomisation. The aim of this paper is to describe this method in the context of MCMC, summarise its characteristics, and contrast its performance with those of the more common diagnostic tests for MCMC. It is observed that the new tool contributes information about third and higher order cumulant behaviour which is important in characterising certain forms of nonlinearity and nonstationarity.Convergence diagnostics; higher cumulants; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; non-linear time series; stationarity; surrogate series

Jaleco Embrapa de proteção em apicultura.

bitstream/item/31356/1/comunicado-177.pd

New Ultraviolet Extinction Curves for Interstellar Dust in M31

New low-resolution UV spectra of a sample of reddened OB stars in M31 were obtained with HST/STIS to study the wavelength dependence of interstellar extinction and the nature of the underlying dust grain populations. Extinction curves were constructed for four reddened sightlines in M31 paired with closely matching stellar atmosphere models. The new curves have a much higher S/N than previous studies. Direct measurements of N(H I) were made using the Ly$\alpha$ absorption lines enabling gas-to-dust ratios to be calculated. The sightlines have a range in galactocentric distance of 5 to 14 kpc and represent dust from regions of different metallicities and gas-to-dust ratios. The metallicities sampled range from Solar to 1.5 Solar. The measured curves show similarity to those seen in the Milky Way and the Large Magellanic Cloud. The Maximum Entropy Method was used to investigate the dust composition and size distribution for the sightlines observed in this program finding that the extinction curves can be produced with the available carbon and silicon abundances if the metallicity is super-Solar.Comment: ApJ, in press, 9 pages, 5 figure

Comments on Sweeny and Gliozzi dynamics for simulations of Potts models in the Fortuin-Kasteleyn representation

We compare the correlation times of the Sweeny and Gliozzi dynamics for two-dimensional Ising and three-state Potts models, and the three-dimensional Ising model for the simulations in the percolation prepresentation. The results are also compared with Swendsen-Wang and Wolff cluster dynamics. It is found that Sweeny and Gliozzi dynamics have essentially the same dynamical critical behavior. Contrary to Gliozzi's claim (cond-mat/0201285), the Gliozzi dynamics has critical slowing down comparable to that of other cluster methods. For the two-dimensional Ising model, both Sweeny and Gliozzi dynamics give good fits to logarithmic size dependences; for two-dimensional three-state Potts model, their dynamical critical exponent z is 0.49(1); the three-dimensional Ising model has z = 0.37(2).Comment: RevTeX, 4 pages, 5 figure

Can we predict the duration of an interglacial?

Differences in the duration of interglacials have long been apparent in palaeoclimate records of the Late and Middle Pleistocene. However, a systematic evaluation of such differences has been hampered by the lack of a metric that can be applied consistently through time and by difficulties in separating the local from the global component in various proxies. This, in turn, means that a theoretical framework with predictive power for interglacial duration has remained elusive. Here we propose that the interval between the terminal oscillation of the bipolar seesaw and three thousand years (kyr) before its first major reactivation provides an estimate that approximates the length of the sea-level highstand, a measure of interglacial duration. We apply this concept to interglacials of the last 800 kyr by using a recently-constructed record of interhemispheric variability. The onset of interglacials occurs within 2 kyr of the boreal summer insolation maximum/precession minimum and is consistent with the canonical view of Milankovitch forcing pacing the broad timing of interglacials. Glacial inception always takes place when obliquity is decreasing and never after the obliquity minimum. The phasing of precession and obliquity appears to influence the persistence of interglacial conditions over one or two insolation peaks, leading to shorter (~ 13 kyr) and longer (~ 28 kyr) interglacials. Glacial inception occurs approximately 10 kyr after peak interglacial conditions in temperature and CO2, representing a characteristic timescale of interglacial decline. Second-order differences in duration may be a function of stochasticity in the climate system, or small variations in background climate state and the magnitude of feedbacks and mechanisms contributing to glacial inception, and as such, difficult to predict. On the other hand, the broad duration of an interglacial may be determined by the phasing of astronomical parameters and the history of insolation, rather than the instantaneous forcing strength at inception

Determinants of anemia and hemoglobin concentration in haitian school-aged children

Anemia diminishes oxygen transport in the body, resulting in potentially irreversible growth and developmental consequences for children. Limited evidence for determinants of anemia exists for school-aged children. We conducted a cluster randomized controlled trial in Haiti from 2012 to 2013 to test the efficacy of a fortified school snack. Children (N = 1,047) aged 3–13 years were followed longitudinally at three time points for hemoglobin (Hb) concentrations, anthropometry, and bioelectrical impedance measures. Dietary intakes, infectious disease morbidities, and socioeconomic and demographic factors were collected at baseline and endline. Longitudinal regression modeling with generalized least squares and logit models with random effects identified anemia risk factors beyond the intervention effect. At baseline, 70.6% of children were anemic and 2.6% were severely anemic. Stunting increased the odds of developing anemia (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 1.48, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05–2.08) and severe anemia (adjusted OR: 2.47, 95% CI: 1.30–4.71). Parent-reported vitamin A supplementation and deworming were positively associated with Hb concentrations, whereas fever and poultry ownership showed a negative relationship with Hb concentration and increased odds of severe anemia, respectively. Further research should explore the full spectrum of anemia etiologies in school children, including genetic causes

Magnetism in Closed-shell Quantum Dots: Emergence of Magnetic Bipolarons

Similar to atoms and nuclei, semiconductor quantum dots exhibit formation of shells. Predictions of magnetic behavior of the dots are often based on the shell occupancies. Thus, closed-shell quantum dots are assumed to be inherently nonmagnetic. Here, we propose a possibility of magnetism in such dots doped with magnetic impurities. On the example of the system of two interacting fermions, the simplest embodiment of the closed-shell structure, we demonstrate the emergence of a novel broken-symmetry ground state that is neither spin-singlet nor spin-triplet. We propose experimental tests of our predictions and the magnetic-dot structures to perform them.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures; http://link.aps.org/doi/10.1103/PhysRevLett.106.177201; minor change