Autonomous decision-making against induced seismicity in deep fluid injections

The rise in the frequency of anthropogenic earthquakes due to deep fluid injections is posing serious economic, societal, and legal challenges to geo-energy and waste-disposal projects. We propose an actuarial approach to mitigate this risk, first by defining an autonomous decision-making process based on an adaptive traffic light system (ATLS) to stop risky injections, and second by quantifying a "cost of public safety" based on the probability of an injection-well being abandoned. The ATLS underlying statistical model is first confirmed to be representative of injection-induced seismicity, with examples taken from past reservoir stimulation experiments (mostly from Enhanced Geothermal Systems, EGS). Then the decision strategy is formalized: Being integrable, the model yields a closed-form ATLS solution that maps a risk-based safety standard or norm to an earthquake magnitude not to exceed during stimulation. Finally, the EGS levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is reformulated in terms of null expectation, with the cost of abandoned injection-well implemented. We find that the price increase to mitigate the increased seismic risk in populated areas can counterbalance the heat credit. However this "public safety cost" disappears if buildings are based on earthquake-resistant designs or if a more relaxed risk safety standard or norm is chosen.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, conference (International Symposium on Energy Geotechnics, 26-28 September 2018, Lausanne, Switzerland

Costs of shoulder pain in primary care consulters: a prospective cohort study in The Netherlands

BACKGROUND: Shoulder pain is common in primary care, and has an unfavourable outcome in many patients. Information on the costs associated with health care use and loss of productivity in patients with shoulder pain is very scarce. The objective of this study was to determine shoulder pain related costs during the 6 months after first consultation in general practice METHODS: A prospective cohort study consisting of 587 patients with a new episode of shoulder pain was conducted with a follow-up period of 6 months. Data on costs were collected by means of a cost diary during 6 months. RESULTS: 84% of the patients completed all cost diaries. The mean consumption of direct health care and non-health related care was low. During 6 months after first consultation for shoulder pain, the mean total costs a patient generated were €689. Almost 50% of this total concerned indirect costs, caused by sick leave from paid work. A small proportion (12%) of the population generated 74% of the total costs. CONCLUSION: The total costs in the 6 months after first consultation for shoulder pain in primary care, mostly generated by a small part of the population, are not alarmingly high

Improved ventricular function during inhalation of PGI(2) aerosol partly relies on enhanced myocardial contractility

Inhaled prostacyclin (PGI(2)) aerosol induces selective pulmonary vasodilation. Further, it improves right ventricular ( RV) function, which may largely rely on pulmonary vasodilation, but also on enhanced myocardial contractility. We investigated the effects of the inhaled PGI(2) analogs epoprostenol (EPO) and iloprost (ILO) on RV function and myocardial contractility in 9 anesthetized pigs receiving aerosolized EPO (25 and 50 ng center dot kg(-1) center dot min(-1)) and, consecutively, ILO (60 ng center dot kg(-1) center dot min(-1)) for 20 min each. We measured pulmonary artery pressure ( PAP), RV ejection fraction (RVEF) and RV end-diastolic-volume (RV-EDV), and left ventricular end-systolic pressure-volume-relation (end-systolic elastance, E-es). EPO and ILO reduced PAP, increased RVEF and reduced RVEDV. E-es was enhanced during all doses tested, which reached statistical significance during EPO25ng and ILO, but not during EPO50ng. PGI(2) aerosol enhances myocardial contractility in healthy pigs, contributing to improve RV function. Copyright (C) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel

Curves on Heisenberg invariant quartic surfaces in projective 3-space

This paper is about the family of smooth quartic surfaces $X \subset \mathbb{P}^3$ that are invariant under the Heisenberg group $H_{2,2}$. For a very general such surface $X$, we show that the Picard number of $X$ is 16 and determine its Picard group. It turns out that the general Heisenberg invariant quartic contains 320 smooth conics and that in the very general case, this collection of conics generates the Picard group.Comment: Updated references, corrected typo

Urinary ATP as an indicator of infection and inflammation of the urinary tract in patients with lower urinary tract symptoms

BACKGROUND: Adenosine-5'-triphosphate (ATP) is a neurotransmitter and inflammatory cytokine implicated in the pathophysiology of lower urinary tract disease. ATP additionally reflects microbial biomass thus has potential as a surrogate marker of urinary tract infection (UTI). The optimum clinical sampling method for ATP urinalysis has not been established. We tested the potential of urinary ATP in the assessment of lower urinary tract symptoms, infection and inflammation, and validated sampling methods for clinical practice. METHODS: A prospective, blinded, cross-sectional observational study of adult patients presenting with lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) and asymptomatic controls, was conducted between October 2009 and October 2012. Urinary ATP was assayed by a luciferin-luciferase method, pyuria counted by microscopy of fresh unspun urine and symptoms assessed using validated questionnaires. The sample collection, storage and processing methods were also validated. RESULTS: 75 controls and 340 patients with LUTS were grouped as without pyuria (n = 100), pyuria 1-9 wbc ?l(-1) (n = 120) and pyuria ?10 wbc ?l(-1) (n = 120). Urinary ATP was higher in association with female gender, voiding symptoms, pyuria greater than 10 wbc ?l(-1) and negative MSU culture. ROC curve analysis showed no evidence of diagnostic test potential. The urinary ATP signal decayed with storage at 23°C but was prevented by immediate freezing at ??-20°C, without boric acid preservative and without the need to centrifuge urine prior to freezing. CONCLUSIONS: Urinary ATP may have a role as a research tool but is unconvincing as a surrogate, clinical diagnostic marker

An eclipsing binary distance to the Large Magellanic Cloud accurate to 2 per cent

In the era of precision cosmology it is essential to determine the Hubble Constant with an accuracy of 3% or better. Currently, its uncertainty is dominated by the uncertainty in the distance to the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) which as the second nearest galaxy serves as the best anchor point of the cosmic distance scale. Observations of eclipsing binaries offer a unique opportunity to precisely and accurately measure stellar parameters and distances. The eclipsing binary method was previously applied to the LMC but the accuracy of the distance results was hampered by the need to model the bright, early-type systems used in these studies. Here, we present distance determinations to eight long-period, late- type eclipsing systems in the LMC composed of cool giant stars. For such systems we can accurately measure both the linear and angular sizes of their components and avoid the most important problems related to the hot early-type systems. Our LMC distance derived from these systems is demonstrably accurate to 2.2 % (49.97 +/- 0.19 (statistical) +/- 1.11 (systematic) kpc) providing a firm base for a 3 % determination of the Hubble Constant, with prospects for improvement to 2 % in the future.Comment: 34 pages, 5 figures, 13 tables, published in the Nature, a part of our data comes from new unpublished OGLE-IV photometric dat

Electrocardiogram-based mortality prediction in patients with COVID-19 using machine learning

Background and purpose: The electrocardiogram (ECG) is frequently obtained in the work-up of COVID-19 patients. So far, no study has evaluated whether ECG-based machine learning models have added value to predict in-hospital mortality specifically in COVID-19 patients. / Methods: Using data from the CAPACITY-COVID registry, we studied 882 patients admitted with COVID-19 across seven hospitals in the Netherlands. Raw format 12-lead ECGs recorded within 72 h of admission were studied. With data from five hospitals (n = 634), three models were developed: (a) a logistic regression baseline model using age and sex, (b) a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) model using age, sex and human annotated ECG features, and (c) a pre-trained deep neural network (DNN) using age, sex and the raw ECG waveforms. Data from two hospitals (n = 248) was used for external validation. / Results: Performances for models a, b and c were comparable with an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65–0.79), 0.76 (95% CI 0.68–0.82) and 0.77 (95% CI 0.70–0.83) respectively. Predictors of mortality in the LASSO model were age, low QRS voltage, ST depression, premature atrial complexes, sex, increased ventricular rate, and right bundle branch block. / Conclusion: This study shows that the ECG-based prediction models could be helpful for the initial risk stratification of patients diagnosed with COVID-19, and that several ECG abnormalities are associated with in-hospital all-cause mortality of COVID-19 patients. Moreover, this proof-of-principle study shows that the use of pre-trained DNNs for ECG analysis does not underperform compared with time-consuming manual annotation of ECG features

Primary hemiarthroplasty versus conservative treatment for comminuted fractures of the proximal humerus in the elderly (ProCon): A Multicenter Randomized Controlled trial

Background. Fractures of the proximal humerus are associated with a profound temporary and sometimes permanent, impairment of function and quality of life. The treatment of comminuted fractures of the proximal humerus like selected three-or four-part fractures and split fractures of the humeral head is a demanding and unresolved problem, especially in the elderly. Locking plates appear to offer improved fixation; however, screw cut-out rates ranges due to fracture collapse are high. As this may lead to higher rates of revision surgery, it may be preferable to treat comminuted fractures in the elderly primarily with a prosthesis or non-operatively. Results from case series and a small-sample randomized controlled trial (RCT) suggest improved function and less pain after primary hemiarthroplasty (HA); however these studies had some limitations and a RCT is needed. The primary aim of this study is to compare the Constant scores (reflecting functional outcome and pain) at one year after primary HA versus non-operative treatment in elderly patients who sustained a comminuted proximal humeral fracture. Secondary aims include effects on functional outcome, pain, complications, quality of life, and cost-effectiveness. Methods/Design. A prospective, multi-center RCT will be conducted in nine centers in the Netherlands and Belgium. Eighty patients over 65 years of age, who have sustained a three-or four part, or split head proximal humeral fracture will be randomized between primary hemiarthroplasty and conservative treatment. The primary outcome is the Constant score, which indicates pain and function. Secondary outcomes include the Disability of the Arm and Shoulder (DASH) score, Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) for pain, radiographic healing, health-related quality of life (Short-form-36, EuroQol-5D) and healthcare consumption. Cost-effectiveness ratios wi

Long-term follow-up of patients with type 2 and non-ambulant type 3 spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) treated with olesoxime in the OLEOS trial

In a previous Phase 2 study, olesoxime had a favorable safety profile. Although the primary endpoint was not met, analyses suggested that olesoxime might help in the maintenance of motor function in patients with Types 2/3 SMA. This open-label extension study (OLEOS) further characterizes the safety, tolerability and efficacy of olesoxime over longer therapy durations. In OLEOS, no new safety risks were identified. Compared to matched natural history data, patients treated with olesoxime demonstrated small, non-significant changes in motor function over 52 weeks. Motor function scores were stable for 52 weeks but declined over the remainder of the study. The greatest decline in motor function was seen in patients ≤15 years old, and those with Type 2 SMA had faster motor function decline versus those with Type 3 SMA. Previous treatment with olesoxime in the Phase 2 study was not protective of motor function in OLEOS. Respiratory outcomes were stable in patients with Type 3 SMA >15 years old but declined in patients with Type 2 SMA and in patients with Type 3 SMA ≤15 years old. Overall, with no stabilization of functional measures observed over 130 weeks, OLEOS did not support significant benefit of olesoxime in patients with SMA