Economic tools to promote transparency and comparability in the Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement culminates a six-year transition towards an international climate policy architecture based on parties submitting national pledges every five years1. An important policy task will be to assess and compare these contributions2, 3. We use four integrated assessment models to produce metrics of Paris Agreement pledges, and show differentiated effort across countries: wealthier countries pledge to undertake greater emission reductions with higher costs. The pledges fall in the lower end of the distributions of the social cost of carbon and the cost-minimizing path to limiting warming to 2 °C, suggesting insufficient global ambition in light of leaders’ climate goals. Countries’ marginal abatement costs vary by two orders of magnitude, illustrating that large efficiency gains are available through joint mitigation efforts and/or carbon price coordination. Marginal costs rise almost proportionally with income, but full policy costs reveal more complex regional patterns due to terms of trade effects

The economic impacts of UK fiscal policies and their spillover effects on the energy system

The energy system and the economy are inextricably intertwined. Whilst this interdependence is, of course, widely recognized, it has not featured prominently in assessing the likely impact of economic policies. In principle, fiscal policies are likely to have an influence on key elements of the energy system, the neglect of which may lead to inefficiencies in the design of appropriate energy and economic policies. The importance of this in practice depends on the strength of the spillover effects from fiscal policy instruments to energy policy goals. This is the focus of this chapter. We employ a multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium approach for the United Kingdom that allows us to track the impact of key fiscal policy interventions on goals of economic and energy policies. We explore whether it is possible to stimulate the economy through fiscal policy without generating an adverse impact on the energy system. Overall, our results suggest that it is unlikely that an increase in current public spending or a fall in the income tax rate will generate a simultaneous increase in GDP and fall in emissions in the United Kingdom context. Nonetheless, there are undoubted differential spillover effects on key components of the energy system from tax and public spending interventions that may prove capable of being exploited through the coordination of fiscal and energy policies. Even if it seems doubtful that fiscal policies would be formulated with a view to improved coordination with energy policies, policymakers can benefit from knowledge of the likely direction and scale of fiscal spillover effects to key elements of the energy system, since this reveals, for example, the extent of any energy policy adjustment that would be required to maintain a given level of emissions

Central Banking, Climate Change and Green Finance

Responsibility for financial and macroeconomic stability implicitly or explicitly lies with the central bank, which therefore ought to address climate-related and other environmental risks on a systemic level. Furthermore, central banks, through their regulatory oversight over money, credit, and the financial system, are in a powerful position to support the development of green finance models and enforce an adequate pricing of environmental and carbon risk by financial institutions. The central topic of this paperare the public financial governance policies through which central banks, as well as other relevant financial regulatory agencies, can address environmental risk and promote sustainable finance. The paperfirst discusses the reasons why central banks should be concerned with aligning finance with sustainable development. Second, the paperreviews the tools and instruments that can be utilized by central banks and financial regulatory agencies to address environmental risk and promote green finance and sustainable development. Third, the paperprovides a brief review of green public financial governance initiatives

Exploring Predictors of Outcome in the Psychosis Prodrome: Implications for Early Identification and Intervention

Functional disability is a key component of many psychiatric illnesses, particularly schizophrenia. Impairments in social and role functioning are linked to cognitive deficits, a core feature of psychosis. Retrospective analyses demonstrate that substantial functional decline precedes the onset of psychosis. Recent investigations reveal that individuals at clinical-high-risk (CHR) for psychosis show impairments in social relationships, work/school functioning and daily living skills. CHR youth also demonstrate a pattern of impairment across a range of cognitive domains, including social cognition, which is qualitatively similar to that of individuals with schizophrenia. While many studies have sought to elucidate predictors of clinical deterioration, specifically the development of schizophrenia, in such CHR samples, few have investigated factors relevant to psychosocial outcome. This review integrates recent findings regarding cognitive and social-cognitive predictors of outcome in CHR individuals, and proposes potential directions for future research that will contribute to targeted interventions and improved outcome for at-risk youth