Contribution of Chronic Disease to the Burden of Disability

Background: Population ageing is expected to lead to strong increases in the number of persons with one or more disabilities, which may result in substantial declines in the quality of life. To reduce the burden of disability and to prevent concomitant declines in the quality of life, one of the first steps is to establish which diseases contribute most to

Modelling of Usual Nutrient Intakes: Potential Impact of the Choices Programme on Nutrient Intakes in Young Dutch Adults

Introduction The Choices Programme is an internationally applicable nutrient profiling system with nutrition criteria for trans fatty acids (TFA), saturated fatty acids, sodium, added sugar and for some product groups energy and fibre. These criteria determine whether foods are eligible to carry a “healthier option” stamp. In this paper a nutrient intake modelling method is described to evaluate these nutritional criteria by investigating the potential effect on nutrient intakes. Methods Data were combined from the 2003 Dutch food consumption survey in young adults (aged 19–30) and the Dutch food composition table into the Monte Carlo Risk Assessment model. Three scenarios were calculated: the “actual intakes” (scenario 1) were compared to scenario 2, where all foods that did not comply were replaced by similar foods that did comply with the Choices criteria. Scenario 3 was the same as scenario 2 adjusted for the difference in energy density between the original and replacement food. Additional scenarios were calculated where snacks were not or partially replaced and stratified analyses for gender, age, Body Mass Index (BMI) and education. Results Calculated intake distributions showed that median energy intake was reduced by 16% by replacing normally consumed foods with Choices compliant foods. Intakes of nutrients with a maximal intake limit were also reduced (ranging from -23% for sodium and -62% for TFA). Effects on intakes of beneficial nutrients varied from an unintentional reduction in fat soluble vitamin intakes (-15 to -28%) to an increase of 28% for fibre and 17% calcium. Stratified analyses in this homogeneous study population showed only small differences across gender, age, BMI and education. Conclusions This intake modelling method showed that with consumption of Choices compliant foods, nutrient intakes shift towards population intake goals for the nutrients for which nutrition criteria were defined, while effects on beneficial nutrients were diverse

An integrated 1D–2D hydraulic modelling approach to assess the sensitivity of a coastal region to compound flooding hazard under climate change

Coastal regions are dynamic areas that often lie at the junction of different natural hazards. Extreme events such as storm surges and high precipitation are significant sources of concern for flood management. As climatic changes and sea-level rise put further pressure on these vulnerable systems, there is a need for a better understanding of the implications of compounding hazards. Recent computational advances in hydraulic modelling offer new opportunities to support decision-making and adaptation. Our research makes use of recently released features in the HEC-RAS version 5.0 software to develop an integrated 1D–2D hydrodynamic model. Using extreme value analysis with the Peaks-Over-Threshold method to define extreme scenarios, the model was applied to the eastern coast of the UK. The sensitivity of the protected wetland known as the Broads to a combination of fluvial, tidal and coastal sources of flooding was assessed, accounting for different rates of twenty-first century sea-level rise up to the year 2100. The 1D–2D approach led to a more detailed representation of inundation in coastal urban areas, while allowing for interactions with more fluvially dominated inland areas to be captured. While flooding was primarily driven by increased sea levels, combined events exacerbated flooded area by 5–40% and average depth by 10–32%, affecting different locations depending on the scenario. The results emphasise the importance of catchment-scale strategies that account for potentially interacting sources of flooding

Depression and anxiety, an Indicated Prevention (DIP) protocol in homes for the elderly: feasibility and (cost) effectiveness of a stepped care programme

BACKGROUND: Depressive and anxiety disorders are a very common, serious and underdetected problem in homes for the elderly. Elderly persons in residential homes are at high risk for developing major depressive and anxiety disorders, and, therefore, deserve attention with regard to prevention. METHODS/DESIGN: This protocol describes a randomised trial on the feasibility and (cost) effectiveness of a stepped-care programme for prevention of depressive and anxiety disorders in homes for the elderly. The main outcome measure is the incidence of depressive and anxiety disorder in one year with a two years follow up. Secondary outcomes are symptoms of depression and anxiety, quality of life, direct health care costs and satisfaction with treatment. DISCUSSION: The number of studies examining the effects of preventive interventions on the incidence of mental disorders in the elderly population is very small. However, indicated prevention by means of a stepped-care programme seems to be an important option for decreasing the burden of illness for residents and their caregivers. This study contributes to the body of knowledge in this field. Positive effects may contribute to further use and development of tailored, (cost-) effective and easy to use interventions in a preventive stepped-care programme. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The Dutch Cochrane Centre, ISRCTN2754073

Obesity, smoking, alcohol consumption and years lived with disability: A Sullivan life table approach

Background: To avoid strong declines in the quality of life due to population ageing, and to ensure sustainability of the health care system, reductions in the burden of disability among elderly populations are urgently needed. Life style interventions may help to reduce the years lived with one or more disabilities, but it is not fully understood which life style factor has the largest potential for such reductions. Therefore, the primary aim of this paper is to compare the effect of BMI, smoking and alcohol consumption on life expectancy with disability, using the Sullivan life table method. A secondary aim is to assess potential improvement of the Sullivan method by using information on the association of disability with time to death. Methods. Data from the Dutch Permanent Survey of the Living Situation (POLS) 1997-1999 with mortality follow-up until 2006 (n = 6,446) were used. Using estimated relative mortality risks by risk factor exposure, separate life tables were constructed for groups defined in terms of BMI, smoking status and alcohol consumption. Logistic regression models were fitted to predict the prevalence of ADL and mobility disabilities in relationship to age and risk factor exposure. Using the Sullivan method, predicted age-specific prevalence rates were included in the life table to calculate years lived with disability at age 55. In further analysis we assessed whether adding information on time to death in both the regression models and the life table estimates would lead to substantive changes in the results. Results: Life expectancy at age 55 differed by 1.4 years among groups defined in terms of BMI, 4.0 years by smoking status, and 3.0 years by alcohol consumption. Years lived with disability differed by 2.8 years according to BMI, 0.2 years by smoking and 1.6 by alcohol consumption. Obese persons could expect to live more years with disability (5.9 years) than smokers (3.8 years) and drinkers (3.1 years). Employing information on time to death led to lower estimates of years lived with disability, and to smaller differences in these years according to BMI (2.1 years), alcohol (1.2 years), and smoking (0.1 years). Conclusions: Compared with smoking and drinking alcohol, obesity is most strongly associated with an increased risk of spending many years of life with disability. Although employing information on the relation of disability with time to death improves the precision of Sullivan life table estimates, the relative importance of risk factors remained unchanged

Deagrarianisation and forest revegetation in a biodiversity hotspot on the Wild Coast, South Africa

Deagraianisation is a worldwide phenomenon with widespread social, ecological and economic effects yet with little consensus on the local or higher level causes. There have been contested views on the causes and consequences of deagrarianisation on South Africa’s Wild Coast, which is an international biodiversity hotspot. Using GIS, household interviews and ecological sampling, we compared the perspectives of current and former cultivators as to why some have abandoned farming, whilst also tracking the uses and woody plant cover and composition of fields abandoned at different periods. The GIS analysis showed that field abandonment had been ongoing over several decades, with a decline from 12.5 % field cover in 1961 to 2.7 % in 2009. The area of forests and woodlands almost doubled in the corresponding period. There was a distinct peak in field abandonment during the time of political transition at the national level in the early 1990s. This political change led to a decrease in government support for livestock farming, which in turn resulted in reduced animal draught power at the household and community level, and hence reduced cropping. The study showed it is largely the wealthier households that have remained in arable agriculture and that the poorer households have abandoned farming. The abandoned fields show a distinct trend of increasing woody biomass and species richness with length of time since abandonment, with approximately three woody plant species added per decade. Most local respondents dislike the increases in forest and woodland extent and density because of anxiety about wild animals causing harm to crops and even humans, and the loss of an agricultural identity to livelihoods and the landscape

Vertebral Pneumaticity in the Ornithomimosaur Archaeornithomimus (Dinosauria: Theropoda) Revealed by Computed Tomography Imaging and Reappraisal of Axial Pneumaticity in Ornithomimosauria

Among extant vertebrates, pneumatization of postcranial bones is unique to birds, with few known exceptions in other groups. Through reduction in bone mass, this feature is thought to benefit flight capacity in modern birds, but its prevalence in non-avian dinosaurs of variable sizes has generated competing hypotheses on the initial adaptive significance of postcranial pneumaticity. To better understand the evolutionary history of postcranial pneumaticity, studies have surveyed its distribution among non-avian dinosaurs. Nevertheless, the degree of pneumaticity in the basal coelurosaurian group Ornithomimosauria remains poorly known, despite their potential to greatly enhance our understanding of the early evolution of pneumatic bones along the lineage leading to birds. Historically, the identification of postcranial pneumaticity in non-avian dinosaurs has been based on examination of external morphology, and few studies thus far have focused on the internal architecture of pneumatic structures inside the bones. Here, we describe the vertebral pneumaticity of the ornithomimosaur Archaeornithomimus with the aid of X-ray computed tomography (CT) imaging. Complementary examination of external and internal osteology reveals (1) highly pneumatized cervical vertebrae with an elaborate configuration of interconnected chambers within the neural arch and the centrum; (2) anterior dorsal vertebrae with pneumatic chambers inside the neural arch; (3) apneumatic sacral vertebrae; and (4) a subset of proximal caudal vertebrae with limited pneumatic invasion into the neural arch. Comparisons with other theropod dinosaurs suggest that ornithomimosaurs primitively exhibited a plesiomorphic theropod condition for axial pneumaticity that was extended among later taxa, such as Archaeornithomimus and large bodied Deinocheirus. This finding corroborates the notion that evolutionary increases in vertebral pneumaticity occurred in parallel among independent lineages of bird-line archosaurs. Beyond providing a comprehensive view of vertebral pneumaticity in a non-avian coelurosaur, this study demonstrates the utility and need of CT imaging for further clarifying the early evolutionary history of postcranial pneumaticity

High diversity in the sauropod dinosaur fauna of the Early Lower Cretaceous Kirkwood Formation of South Africa: Implications for the Jurassic–Cretaceous transition

The Kirkwood Formation of South Africa has long been recognized as having the potential to fill an important gap in the Mesozoic terrestrial fossil record. As one of the few fossil-bearing deposits from the lowermost Cretaceous, the Kirkwood Formation provides critical information on terrestrial ecosystems at the local, subcontinental (southern Gondwana), and global scale during this poorly sampled time interval. However, until recently, the dinosaurian fauna of the Kirkwood Formation, especially that pertaining to Sauropoda, has remained essentially unknown. Here we present comprehensive descriptions of several relatively well-preserved sauropod vertebrae collected from exposures throughout the formation. We identify at least four taxonomically distinct groups of sauropod, comprising representatives of Diplodocidae, Dicraeosauridae, Brachiosauridae, and a eusauropod that belongs to neither Diplodocoidea nor Titanosauriformes. This represents the first unequivocal evidence of these groups having survived into the earliest Cretaceous of Africa. The taxonomic composition of the Kirkwood Formation shows strong similarities to Upper Jurassic deposits, and raises questions regarding the taxonomic decline across the Jurassic/Cretaceous boundary that has been previously inferred for Sauropoda. Investigation of the sauropod fossil record of the first three geological stages of the Cretaceous suggests that reconstruction of sauropod macroevolutionary patterns is complicated by a combination of sampling bias, an uneven and poorly dated rock record, and spatiotemporal disparity in the global disappearance of certain sauropod groups. Nonetheless, the close ecological relationship consistently observed between Brachiosauridae and Diplodocidae, as well as their approximately synchronous decline, suggests some equivalence in response to the changing faunal dynamics of the Early Cretaceous