Capital Stocks and Their User Costs for West German Agriculture: A Documentation

Agricultural Finance,

The Future of European Agriculture - An Updated Outlook

This paper reports the results of a European agricultural outlook exercise that updates former studies in three ways, i.e. in terms of timeframes, spatial coverage and policy context. This updated European agricultural outlook constitutes a key component of the forthcoming 'State of the Environment and Outlook report' of the European Environment Agency (EEA). Both activity variables and environmental indicators are reported for a baseline projection and alternative scenarios. The main findings include the following: European harvested land is expected to continue to be primarily used to fodder activities and production of cereals (80% of total area); yields increase is projected to be the main source of production growth in Europe over the next 20 years; environmental pressures are expected to significantly increase in the New Member States, as a result primarily of considerable increase in fertilizers use.agricultural outlook, European agricultural policy, environment, Agribusiness, C61, Q18, Q21,

Plagiarism Without Apology--Systematic Integration of Available Information in a Long Run Agricultural Outlook

In the context of a long run agricultural outlook on behalf of the European Environmental Agency a new methodology has been developed to systematically integrate external forecasts into a quite detailed agricultural sector model. External forecasts usually provide estimates for the exogenous variables in modelling work and frequently they are also used for comparisons and potential reassessment of empirical specifications. The innovative characteristic of this study is that expert forecasts have been used to specify parameter changes expressing structural change affecting behavioural functions. The outlook was therefore set up as a simultaneous estimation and forecasting effort which permitted to integrate various, usually contradictory expert forecasts subject to the equations of the sector model.agricultural outlook, forecasting, modelling, expert information, Agricultural and Food Policy, C15, C53, Q11, Q19, Q21,

Erfahrungen mit einer Polypolversion des Pachtmarktspiels "Wachsen oder Weichen"

This paper summarises results from the well known game "Wachsen oder Weichen" which mimics characteristics of a land rental market. The original version of the game from Gottingen University has been greatly simplified to investigate the influence of planning errors on outcomes in a game played among agricultural economists at Bonn University. It turned out that players' errors continued to bias the results against the tenants even in the simplified version of the game. Other sources of bias are also discussed in the paper which concludes with suggestions for improvements. Dieses Diskussionspapier faßt Ergebnisse einer Spielrunde mit dem bekannten Pachtmarktspiel "Wachsen oder Weichen" zusammen. Die ursprungliche Version des Spiels aus Gottingen wurde stark vereinfacht, um den Einfluss von Planungsfehlern auf die Ergebnisse zu untersuchen. Planungsfehler verursachten weiterhin eine gewisse Verzerrung des Spielverlaufs zuungunsten der pachtenden Spieler. Weitere Ursachen fur derartige Verzerrungen werden zusammen mit Verbesserungsvorschlagen diskutiert.Land Economics/Use,

CAPRI long-term climate change scenario analysis: The AgMIP approach

The current paper investigates the long-term global effects of crops productivity changes under different climate scenarios and the impact of biofuels expansion using the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact (CAPRI) model. These analyses are conducted in the framework of the AgMIP project (Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project). The results indicate that globally there will be both winners and losers, with some regions benefitting from agricultural production adjustment as a result of climate change whilst most regions suffering losses in production and consumption. Biofuel expansion leads to land relocation away from crop agricultural commodity production to new energy crops which is reflected in lower production levels of agricultural commodities and higher agricultural prices.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

The Common Agricultural Policy SIMulation (CAPSIM) Model: Dairy Reform and Western Balkan Countries Accession Scenarios

The aim of this study is to provide and describe a multicommodity analysis able to focus and investigate two EU relevant agricultural policy aspects: the dairy reform and the enlargement to Western Balkan countries. The analysis is carried out using the Common Agricultural Policy SIMulation (CAPSIM) model developed in the early 1980s by EuroCARE and the University of Bonn on behalf of DG ESTAT. The model is further upgraded for this study in order to analyse the effects of the Health Check decisions on the EU dairy market as well as the impact of the EU enlargement towards Western Balkans countries. Key results of the main quota expiry scenario for 2020 are that milk production would increase by 3.1% in the EU-27 whereas milk prices would drop by 7.3%. Accession effects in the Western Balkan countries would originate in some convergence to EU prices, in technology transfer which would increase yields, and in CAP components introduced on the Western Balkan like milk quotas or decoupled payments.JRC.J.5-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

Exploring the feasibility of integrating water issues into the CAPRI model

Although numerous modelling efforts have integrated food and water considerations at the farm or river basin level, very few agro-economic models are able to jointly assess water and food policies at the global level. The present report explores the feasibility of integrating water considerations into the CAPRI model. First, a literature review of modelling approaches integrating food and water issues has been conducted. Three agro-economic models, IMPACT, WATERSIM and GLOBIOM, have been analysed in detail. In addition, biophysical and hydrological models estimating agricultural water use have also been studied, in particular the global hydrological model WATERGAP and the LISFLOOD model. Thanks to the programming approach of its supply module, CAPRI shows a high potentiality to integrate environmental indicators as well as to enter new resource constraints (land potentially irrigated, irrigation water) and input-output relationships. At least in theory, the activity-based approach of the regional programming model in CAPRI allows differentiating between rainfed and irrigated activities. The suggested approach to include water into the CAPRI model involves creating an irrigation module and a water use module. The development of the CAPRI water module will enable to provide scientific assessment on agricultural water use within the EU and to analyze agricultural pressures on water resources. The feasibility of the approach has been tested in a pilot case study including two NUTS 2 regions (Andalucia in Spain and Midi-Pyrenees in France). Preliminary results are presented, highlighting the interrelations between water and agricultural developments in Europe. As a next step, it is foreseen to further develop the CAPRI water module to account for competition between agricultural and non-agricultural water use. This will imply building a water use sub-module to compute water use balances.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

Extension of the CAPRI model with an irrigation sub-module

The study enables the CAPRI model to make simulations of the potential impact of climate change and water availability on agricultural production, as well as is looking at the sustainable use of water and the implementation of water-related policies including water pricing. To investigate the role of irrigation as adaptation strategy to climate change, we define a set of simulation scenarios that account for the likely effects on water price, crop yields, water availability and irrigation efficiency.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

Filling gaps: AgMIP scenario results from CAPRI

Climate change impacts on food production, socioeconomic changes (population and income growth  in large parts of the world) and biofuel policies affecting demand quantities have risen scientific,  political and public interest in long-term forecasts on food security. Whereas first quantitative analyses  from global economic models are starting to appear (e.g. (von Lampe et al., under review)), similar  studies on smaller regional scales are not yet available. However, acknowledging that climate change  affects crop yields differently across scales and regions (e.g. (Reidsma et al., 2007)) and considering  the specific political setting given through the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in Europe, the  MACSUR project focuses on the impact of climate change and socioeconomic changes on European  agriculture and its contribution to global food security. We present a Europe-wide analysis of the  effect of selected climate and socioeconomic scenarios on food security in terms of food prices using  the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact modelling system (CAPRI)

A DECOMPOSITION APPROACH TO ASSESS ILUC RESULTS FROM GLOBAL MODELING EFFORTS

Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,