2-Deoxy-2[F-18]FDG-PET for Detection of Recurrent Laryngeal Carcinoma after Radiotherapy: Interobserver Variability in Reporting

Purpose: To evaluate accuracy and interobserver variability in the assessment of 2-deoxy-2[F-18]fluoro-d-glucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) for detection of recurrent laryngeal carcinoma after radiotherapy. Procedures: Eleven experienced nuclear physicians from eight centres assessed 30 FDG-PET scans on the appearance of local recurrence (negative/equivocal/positive). Conservative (equivocal analysed as negative) and sensitive (equivocal analysed as positive) assessment strategies were compared to the reference standard (recurrence within 6months after PET). Results: Seven patients had proven recurrences. For the conservative and sensitive strategy, the mean sensitivity was 87% and 97%, specificity 81% and 63%, positive predictive values 61% and 46% and negative predictive values 96% and 99%, respectively. Interobserver variability showed a reasonable relation in comparison to the reference standard (kappa = 0.55). Conclusions: FDG-PET has acceptable interobserver agreement and yields good negative predictive value for detection of recurrent laryngeal carcinoma. It could therefore be used as first diagnostic step and may reduce futile invasive diagnostics

Glacial Refugia in Pathogens: European Genetic Structure of Anther Smut Pathogens on Silene latifolia and Silene dioica

Climate warming is predicted to increase the frequency of invasions by pathogens and to cause the large-scale redistribution of native host species, with dramatic consequences on the health of domesticated and wild populations of plants and animals. The study of historic range shifts in response to climate change, such as during interglacial cycles, can help in the prediction of the routes and dynamics of infectious diseases during the impending ecosystem changes. Here we studied the population structure in Europe of two Microbotryum species causing anther smut disease on the plants Silene latifolia and Silene dioica. Clustering analyses revealed the existence of genetically distinct groups for the pathogen on S. latifolia, providing a clear-cut example of European phylogeography reflecting recolonization from southern refugia after glaciation. The pathogen genetic structure was congruent with the genetic structure of its host species S. latifolia, suggesting dependence of the migration pathway of the anther smut fungus on its host. The fungus, however, appeared to have persisted in more numerous and smaller refugia than its host and to have experienced fewer events of large-scale dispersal. The anther smut pathogen on S. dioica also showed a strong phylogeographic structure that might be related to more northern glacial refugia. Differences in host ecology probably played a role in these differences in the pathogen population structure. Very high selfing rates were inferred in both fungal species, explaining the low levels of admixture between the genetic clusters. The systems studied here indicate that migration patterns caused by climate change can be expected to include pathogen invasions that follow the redistribution of their host species at continental scales, but also that the recolonization by pathogens is not simply a mirror of their hosts, even for obligate biotrophs, and that the ecology of hosts and pathogen mating systems likely affects recolonization patterns

A922 Sequential measurement of 1 hour creatinine clearance (1-CRCL) in critically ill patients at risk of acute kidney injury (AKI)

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Peak loads and network investments in sustainable energy transitions

Current energy distribution networks are often not equipped for facilitating expected sustainable transitions. Major concerns for future electricity networks are the possibility of peak load increases and the expected growth of decentralized energy generation. In this article, we focus on peak load increases; the effects of possible future developments on peak loads are studied, together with the consequences for the network. The city of Eindhoven (the Netherlands) is used as reference city, for which a scenario is developed in which the assumed future developments adversely influence the maximum peak loads on the network. In this scenario, the total electricity peak load in Eindhoven is expected to increase from 198 MVA in 2009 to 591–633 MVA in 2040. The necessary investments for facilitating the expected increased peak loads are estimated at 305–375 million Euros. Based upon these projections, it is advocated that – contrary to current Dutch policy – choices regarding sustainable transitions should be made from the viewpoint of integral energy systems, evaluating economic implications of changes to generation, grid development, and consumption. Recently applied and finished policies on energy demand reduction showed to be effective; however, additional and connecting policies on energy generation and distribution should be considered on short term