Interaction effects on common measures of sensitivity:Choice of measure, type I error, and power

Here we use simulation to assess previously unaddressed problems in the assessment of statistical interactions in detection and recognition tasks. The proportion of hits and false-alarms made by an observer on such tasks is affected by both their sensitivity and bias, and numerous measures have been developed to separate out these two factors. Each of these measures makes different assumptions regarding the underlying process and different predictions as to how false-alarm and hit rates should covary. Previous simulations have shown that choice of an inappropriate measure can lead to inflated type I error rates, or reduced power, for main effects, provided there are differences in response bias between the conditions being compared. Interaction effects pose a particular problem in this context. We show that spurious interaction effects in analysis of variance can be produced, or true interactions missed, even in the absence of variation in bias. Additional simulations show that variation in bias complicates patterns of type I error and power further. This under-appreciated fact has the potential to greatly distort the assessment of interactions in detection and recognition experiments. We discuss steps researchers can take to mitigate their chances of making an error

Multisensory Oddity Detection as Bayesian Inference

A key goal for the perceptual system is to optimally combine information from all the senses that may be available in order to develop the most accurate and unified picture possible of the outside world. The contemporary theoretical framework of ideal observer maximum likelihood integration (MLI) has been highly successful in modelling how the human brain combines information from a variety of different sensory modalities. However, in various recent experiments involving multisensory stimuli of uncertain correspondence, MLI breaks down as a successful model of sensory combination. Within the paradigm of direct stimulus estimation, perceptual models which use Bayesian inference to resolve correspondence have recently been shown to generalize successfully to these cases where MLI fails. This approach has been known variously as model inference, causal inference or structure inference. In this paper, we examine causal uncertainty in another important class of multi-sensory perception paradigm – that of oddity detection and demonstrate how a Bayesian ideal observer also treats oddity detection as a structure inference problem. We validate this approach by showing that it provides an intuitive and quantitative explanation of an important pair of multi-sensory oddity detection experiments – involving cues across and within modalities – for which MLI previously failed dramatically, allowing a novel unifying treatment of within and cross modal multisensory perception. Our successful application of structure inference models to the new ‘oddity detection’ paradigm, and the resultant unified explanation of across and within modality cases provide further evidence to suggest that structure inference may be a commonly evolved principle for combining perceptual information in the brain

Increased Activity Imbalance in Fronto-Subcortical Circuits in Adolescents with Major Depression

BACKGROUND: A functional discrepancy exists in adolescents between frontal and subcortical regions due to differential regional maturational trajectories. It remains unknown how this functional discrepancy alters and whether the influence from the subcortical to the frontal system plays a primacy role in medication naïve adolescent with major depressive disorder (MDD). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Eighteen MDD and 18 healthy adolescents were enrolled. Depression and anxiety severity was assessed by the Short Mood and Feeling Questionnaire (SMFQ) and Screen for Child Anxiety Related Emotional Disorders (SCARED) respectively. The functional discrepancy was measured by the amplitude of low-frequency fluctuations (ALFF) of resting-state functional MRI signal. Correlation analysis was carried out between ALFF values and SMFQ and SCARED scores. Resting brain activity levels measured by ALFF was higher in the frontal cortex than that in the subcortical system involving mainly (para) limbic-striatal regions in both HC and MDD adolescents. The difference of ALFF values between frontal and subcortical systems was increased in MDD adolescents as compared with the controls. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The present study identified an increased imbalance of resting-state brain activity between the frontal cognitive control system and the (para) limbic-striatal emotional processing system in MDD adolescents. The findings may provide insights into the neural correlates of adolescent MDD

Endoscopic diagnosis of acute intestinal GVHD following allogeneic hematopoietic SCT: a retrospective analysis in 175 patients

Diagnosis of acute intestinal GVHD (aGVHD) following allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation is based on clinical symptoms and histological lesions. This retrospective analysis aimed to validate the ‘Freiburg Criteria' for the endoscopic grading of intestinal aGVHD. Grade 1: no clear-cut criteria; grade 2: spotted erythema; grade 3: aphthous lesions; and grade 4: confluent defects, ulcers, denudation of the mucosa. Having excluded patients with infectious diarrhea, we evaluated 175 consecutive patients between January 2001 and June 2009. Setting a cutoff between grade 1 (no change in therapy) and grade 2 (intensification of immunosuppression), macroscopy had a sensitivity of 89.2% (95% confidence interval (CI): 80.4–94.9%), a specificity of 79.4% (95% CI: 69.6–87.1%), a positive-predictive value of 79.6% (95% CI: 70.0–87.2%) and a negative-predictive value of 89.0% (95% CI: 80.2–94.9%). In all, 20% of patients with aGVHD in the lower gastrointestinal tract (GIT) had lesions only in the terminal ileum. In all patients with aGVHD ⩾2 of the upper GIT, typical lesions were also found in the lower GIT. Ileo-colonoscopy showed the highest diagnostic yield for aGVHD. In conclusion, the ‘Freiburg Criteria' for macroscopic diagnosis of intestinal aGVHD provide high accuracy for identifying aGVHD ⩾2

Quantifying the Spatial Ecology of Wide-Ranging Marine Species in the Gulf of California: Implications for Marine Conservation Planning

There is growing interest in systematic establishment of marine protected area (MPA) networks and representative conservation sites. This movement toward networks of no-take zones requires that reserves are deliberately and adequately spaced for connectivity. Here, we test the network functionality of an ecoregional assessment configuration of marine conservation areas by evaluating the habitat protection and connectivity offered to wide-ranging fauna in the Gulf of California (GOC, Mexico). We first use expert opinion to identify representative species of wide-ranging fauna of the GOC. These include leopard grouper, hammerhead sharks, California brown pelicans and green sea turtles. Analyzing habitat models with both structural and functional connectivity indexes, our results indicate that the configuration includes large proportions of biologically important habitat for the four species considered (25–40%), particularly, the best quality habitats (46–57%). Our results also show that connectivity levels offered by the conservation area design for these four species may be similar to connectivity levels offered by the entire Gulf of California, thus indicating that connectivity offered by the areas may resemble natural connectivity. The selected focal species comprise different life histories among marine or marine-related vertebrates and are associated with those habitats holding the most biodiversity values (i.e. coastal habitats); our results thus suggest that the proposed configuration may function as a network for connectivity and may adequately represent the marine megafauna in the GOC, including the potential connectivity among habitat patches. This work highlights the range of approaches that can be used to quantify habitat protection and connectivity for wide-ranging marine species in marine reserve networks

Scrub typhus ecology: a systematic review of Orientia in vectors and hosts

Abstract Scrub typhus, caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi, is an important and neglected vector-borne zoonotic disease with an expanding known distribution. The ecology of the disease is complex and poorly understood, impairing discussion of public health interventions. To highlight what we know and the themes of our ignorance, we conducted a systematic review of all studies investigating the pathogen in vectors and non-human hosts. A total of 276 articles in 7 languages were included, with 793 study sites across 30 countries. There was no time restriction for article inclusion, with the oldest published in 1924. Seventy-six potential vector species and 234 vertebrate host species were tested, accounting for over one million trombiculid mites (‘chiggers’) and 83,000 vertebrates. The proportion of O. tsutsugamushi positivity was recorded for different categories of laboratory test and host species. Vector and host collection sites were geocoded and mapped. Ecological data associated with these sites were summarised. A further 145 articles encompassing general themes of scrub typhus ecology were reviewed. These topics range from the life-cycle to transmission, habitats, seasonality and human risks. Important gaps in our understanding are highlighted together with possible tools to begin to unravel these. Many of the data reported are highly variable and inconsistent and minimum data reporting standards are proposed. With more recent reports of human Orientia sp. infection in the Middle East and South America and enormous advances in research technology over recent decades, this comprehensive review provides a detailed summary of work investigating this pathogen in vectors and non-human hosts and updates current understanding of the complex ecology of scrub typhus. A better understanding of scrub typhus ecology has important relevance to ongoing research into improving diagnostics, developing vaccines and identifying useful public health interventions to reduce the burden of the disease.</jats:p

Business performance and angels presence: A fresh look from France 2008–2011

Business angels enjoy a strong reputation for being more efficient than other investors among policy makers, practitioners, and scholars. However, due to the limited availability of specific financial data, previous research has barely assessed the impact of angels on companies’ performance. This paper seeks to bridge this gap by providing evidence from a unique dataset made up of 432 angel-backed French companies which are compared to two control groups, one randomly selected and another one consisting of similar enterprises. This double comparison process enables us to purge our analysis of structural effect and to demonstrate the importance of the methodology in generating the sample. Indeed, the results we obtain significantly differ depending on the control group. Our results show that the positive influence of angels depends on the condition of the comparison. The set of BA-backed companies is more likely to exhibit superior performance when it is compared to a random sample whereas the companies’ performance is either identical or worse when it is compared to a sample composed of k-nearest neighbors. In addition, using a quantile regression technique makes it possible to differentiate the effect of business angels based on the distribution of the value of the growth rate. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media New York

Viewing the body modulates both pain sensations and pain responses

Viewing the body can influence pain perception, even when vision is non-informative about the noxious stimulus. Prior studies used either continuous pain rating scales or pain detection thresholds, which cannot distinguish whether viewing the body changes the discriminability of noxious heat intensities or merely shifts reported pain levels. In Experiment 1, participants discriminated two intensities of heat-pain stimulation. Noxious stimuli were delivered to the hand in darkness immediately after participants viewed either their own hand or a non-body object appearing in the same location. The visual condition varied randomly between trials. Discriminability of the noxious heat intensities (d?) was lower after viewing the hand than after viewing the object, indicating that viewing the hand reduced the information about stimulus intensity available within the nociceptive system. In Experiment 2, the hand and the object were presented in separate blocks of trials. Viewing the hand shifted perceived pain levels irrespective of actual stimulus intensity, biasing responses toward ‘high pain’ judgments. In Experiment 3, participants saw the noxious stimulus as it approached and touched their hand or the object. Seeing the pain-inducing event counteracted the reduction in discriminability found when viewing the hand alone. These findings show that viewing the body can affect both perceptual processing of pain and responses to pain, depending on the visual context. Many factors modulate pain; our study highlights the importance of distinguishing modulations of perceptual processing from modulations of response bias