Variability of dense water formation in the Ross Sea

The paper presents results from a model study of the interannual variability of High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) properties in the Ross Sea.Salinity, potential temperature and volume of HSSW formed in the western Ross Sea show oscillatory behaviour at periods of 5-6 and 9 years superimposed on long-term fluctuations.While the shorter oscillations are induced by wind variability, variability on the scale of decades appears to be related to air temperature fluctuations.At least part of the strong decrease of HSSW salinities deduced from observations for the period 1963-2000 is shown to be an aliasing artefact due to an undersampling of the periodic signal.While sea ice formation is responsible for the yearly salinity increase that triggers the formation of High Salinity Shelf Water, interannual variability of net freezing rates hardly affects changes in the properties of the resulting water mass.Instead, results from model experiments indicate that the interannual variability of dense water characteristics is predominantly controlled by variations in the shelf inflow through a sub-surface salinity and a deep temperature signal.The origin of the variability of inflow characteristics to the Ross Sea continental shelf can be traced into the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas.The temperature anomalies are induced at the continental shelf break in the western Bellingshausen Sea by fluctuations of the meridional transport of Circumpolar Deep Water with the eastern cell of the Ross Gyre.Upwelling in the centre of this gyre carries the signal into the surface layer where it causes anomalies of brine release near the sea ice edge in the Amundsen Sea, which results in a sub-surface salinity anomaly.With the westward flowing coastal current, both the sub-surface salinity and deep temperature signals are advected onto the Ross Sea continental shelf.Convection carries the signal of salinity variability into the deep ocean, where it interacts with Modified Circumpolar Deep Water upwelled onto the continental shelf as the second source water mass of HSSW.Sea ice formation on the Ross Sea continental shelf thus drives the vertical propagation of the signal rather than determining the signal itself

Sea Ice Modelling

Peer reviewe

Predictability of large interannual Arctic sea-ice anomalies

In projections of twenty-first century climate, Arctic sea ice declines and at the same time exhibits strong interannual anomalies. Here, we investigate the potential to predict these strong sea-ice anomalies under a perfect-model assumption, using the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model in the same setup as in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We study two cases of strong negative sea-ice anomalies: a 5-year-long anomaly for present-day conditions, and a 10-year-long anomaly for conditions projected for the middle of the twenty-first century. We treat these anomalies in the CMIP5 projections as the truth, and use exactly the same model configuration for predictions of this synthetic truth. We start ensemble predictions at different times during the anomalies, considering lagged-perfect and sea-ice-assimilated initial conditions. We find that the onset and amplitude of the interannual anomalies are not predictable. However, the further deepening of the anomaly can be predicted for typically 1 year lead time if predictions start after the onset but before the maximal amplitude of the anomaly. The magnitude of an extremely low summer sea-ice minimum is hard to predict: the skill of the prediction ensemble is not better than a damped-persistence forecast for lead times of more than a few months, and is not better than a climatology forecast for lead times of two or more years. Predictions of the present-day anomaly are more skillful than predictions of the mid-century anomaly. Predictions using sea-ice-assimilated initial conditions are competitive with those using lagged-perfect initial conditions for lead times of a year or less, but yield degraded skill for longer lead times. The results presented here suggest that there is limited prospect of predicting the large interannual sea-ice anomalies expected to occur throughout the twenty-first century

On the flow through Bering Strait: a synthesis of model results and observations

The article of record as published may be found at https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-017-8863-2_7Bering Strait is the only ocean connection between the Pacific and the Arctic. The flow through this narrow and shallow strait links the Pacific and Arctic oceans and impacts oceanic conditions downstream in the Chukchi Sea and the Western Arctic. We present a model synthesis of exchanges through Bering Strait at monthly to decadal time scales, including results from coupled ice-ocean models and observations. Significant quantities of heat and freshwater are delivered annually into the southern Chukchi Sea via Bering Strait. We quantify seasonal signals, along with interannual variability, over the course of 26 years of multiple model integrations. Volume transport and property fluxes are evaluated among several high- resolution model runs and compared with available moored observations. High-resolution models represent the bathymetry better, and may have a more realistic representation of the flow through the strait, although in terms of fluxes and mean properties, this is not always the case. We conclude that, (i) while some of the models used for Arctic studies achieve the correct order of magnitude for fluxes of volume, heat and freshwater, and have significant correlations with observational results, there is still a need for improvement and (ii) higher spatial resolution is needed to resolve features such as the Alaska Coastal Current (ACC). At the same time, additional measurements with better spatial coverage are needed to minimize uncertainties in observed estimates and to constrain models. Bering Strait is the only ocean connection between the Pacific and the Arctic. The flow through this narrow and shallow strait links the Pacific and Arctic oceans and impacts oceanic conditions downstream in the Chukchi Sea and the Western Arctic. We present a model synthesis of exchanges through Bering Strait at monthly to decadal time scales, including results from coupled ice-ocean models and observations. Significant quantities of heat and freshwater are delivered annually into the southern Chukchi Sea via Bering Strait. We quantify seasonal signals, along with interannual variability, over the course of 26 years of multiple model integrations. Volume transport and property fluxes are evaluated among several high- resolution model runs and compared with available moored observations. High-resolution models represent the bathymetry better, and may have a more realistic representation of the flow through the strait, although in terms of fluxes and mean properties, this is not always the case. We conclude that, (i) while some of the models used for Arctic studies achieve the correct order of magnitude for fluxes of volume, heat and freshwater, and have significant correlations with observational results, there is still a need for improvement and (ii) higher spatial resolution is needed to resolve features such as the Alaska Coastal Current (ACC). At the same time, additional measurements with better spatial coverage are needed to minimize uncertainties in observed estimates and to constrain models.Department of Energy Earth System Modeling program (J. C. K and W. M.), National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs (J. C. K, W. M., M. S., and J. Z.), and the Office of Naval Research (J. C. K and W. M.) for support of this research. We also thank the Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (J. C. K. and W. M.). At the National Oceanography Centre Southampton (Y.A. and B. d C.) the study was supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council as a contribution to the Marine Centres’ Strategic Research Programme Oceans 2025.Support for this work was provided (in part) by NSF grants ARC-0632154, ARC-0855748, and the NOAA-RUSALCA program (R. W.). The mooring data used in this study was collected under funding from ONR, NSF, MMS, AOOS and NOAA-RUSALCA (R. W)