Environmental Prospects for the Next Century: Implications for Long-Term Policy and Research Strategies

This report examines environmental prospects for the twenty-first century, and then suggests some appropriate long-term management strategies and research priorities. A few current global trends (e.g., increasing concentrations of atmospheric trace gases, population, agricultural production) are practically irreversible over the next couple of decades due to inertias in the systems involved. However, there are bound to be nonlinearities, discontinuities, and surprises in the behavior of many environmental and socioeconomic systems. In fact, the main challenge for managers, policy analysts, and politicians is to develop strategies that are robust in response to these surprises, exploiting the opportunities as well as softening the shocks that may arise. The main characteristics of such strategies are that they be adaptive, interdisciplinary, and cross-sectoral. As pointed out by Harvey Brooks (1986), we must avoid partial solutions that may be optimal for a particular sector or decade, but which are far from optimal for the biosphere as a whole over the long term

Improving the Creation of Hot Spot Policing Patrol Routes: Comparing Cognitive Heuristic Performance to an Automated Spatial Computation Approach

Hot spot policing involves the deployment of police patrols to places where high levels of crime have previously concentrated. The creation of patrol routes in these hot spots is mainly a manual process that involves using the results from an analysis of spatial patterns of crime to identify the areas and draw the routes that police officers are required to patrol. In this article we introduce a computational approach for automating the creation of hot spot policing patrol routes. The computational techniques we introduce created patrol routes that covered areas of higher levels of crime than an equivalent manual approach for creating hot spot policing patrol routes, and were more efficient in how they covered crime hot spots. Although the evidence on hot spot policing interventions shows they are effective in decreasing crime, the findings from the current research suggest that the impact of these interventions can potentially be greater when using the computational approaches that we introduce for creating hot spot policing patrol routes

Metanephric adenofibroma: Report of a case and review of the literature

The recent recognition of a variety of pediatric renal tumors of different biologic behavior places an ever-increasing demand on the surgical pathologist for an accurate diagnosis. Although metanephric adenofibroma is one of the rarest benign renal tumors, the clinical importance of correctly diagnosing it cannot be overemphasized because it can potentially be mistaken as Wilms' tumor. We describe the clinical, radiologic, and pathologic features of a case of metanephric adenofibroma and discuss its differential diagnosis. The neoplasm was composed of two discrete components: a major fibroblastic element and a minor immature epithelial element. The latter formed a small nodule beneath the renal capsule, which could barely be detected by magnetic resonance imaging. This subcapsular nodule, however, was slightly soft and tan and was distinctly different from the white, whorled cut surface of the main tumor. It was formed by closely packed small immature epithelial cells in a slightly edematous background, which was histologically identical to metanephric adenoma and closely resembled epithelial Wilms' tumor. Unlike Wilms' tumor, however, the epithelial cells were very bland with no mitoses. The main bulk of the tumor was formed by spindle fibroblastic cells that were cytologically similar to the spindle cells in congenital mesoblastic nephroma. The tumor, however, was well demarcated without the irregular infiltrating edges of congenital mesoblastic nephroma. In contrast to the randomly distributed epithelial element throughout the stromal component in previous reported cases of metanephric adenofibroma, our finding of the exceedingly small and discrete epithelial component expands the known histologic spectrum of the disease. In addition, the presence of such minute epithelial nodule underscores the importance of diligent pathologic examination and careful sampling of tissue for histologic examination.link_to_subscribed_fulltex