Active normal faulting during the 1997 seismic sequence in Colfiorito, Umbria: Did slip propagate to the surface?

In order to determine whether slip during an earthquake on the 26th September 1997 propagated to the surface, structural data have been collected along a bedrock fault scarp in Umbria, Italy. These collected data are used to investigate the relationship between the throw associated with a debated surface rupture (observed as a pale unweathered stripe at the base of the bedrock fault scarp) and the strike, dip and slip-vector. Previous studies have suggested that the surface rupture was produced either by primary surface slip or secondary compaction of hangingwall sediments. Some authors favour the latter because sparse surface fault dip measurements do not match nodal plane dips at depth. It is demonstrated herein that the strike, dip and height of the surface rupture, represented by a pale unweathered stripe at the base of the bedrock scarp, shows a systematic relationship with respect to the geometry and kinematics of faulting in the bedrock. The strike and dip co-vary and the throw is greatest where the strike is oblique to the slip-vector azimuth where the highest dip values are recorded. This implies that the throw values vary to accommodate spatial variation in the strike and dip of the fault across fault plane corrugations, a feature that is predicted by theory describing conservation of strain along faults, but not by compaction. Furthermore, published earthquake locations and reported fault dips are consistent with the analysed surface scarps when natural variation for surface dips and uncertainty for nodal plane dips at depth are taken into account. This implies that the fresh stripe is indeed a primary coseismic surface rupture whose slip is connected to the seismogenic fault at depth. We discuss how this knowledge of the locations and geometry of the active faults can be used as an input for seismic hazard assessment

Developing a Bayesian species occupancy/abundance indicator for the UK National Plant Monitoring Scheme

• The National Plant Monitoring Scheme (NPMS) is a volunteer-based structured plant recording scheme. This report focuses on the development of a new statistical model for the species-level data generated by the NPMS. The aim is ultimately for this to contribute to a new indicator of UK habitat quality. • NPMS surveyors collect data on plant abundance (percentage covers) from small plots targeted at specific habitats. They can participate at different levels, with the level of participation influencing the list of species sought in the field. Typically, surveyors record around 5 small plots in a 1 km square, with each plot being visited twice a year. • NPMS data must be processed in order to accurately represent the information content of the plot surveys. Because surveyors use different lists of species depending on their level, in some cases we need to distinguish between true absences (species on a surveyor’s target list but not reported) and unknown cases (species not on a surveyor’s target list, meaning that absence from a list is not informative). • We present a novel hierarchical statistical model for NPMS species-level data. This model seeks to make maximum use of the data collected, and integrates a standard occupancy modelling approach for plot detections with a Beta distribution model for a species’ non-zero cover data. • We evaluate the proposed model using a variety of different simulated datasets. The performance of the model is assessed in relation to the bias and variance shown relative to the actual parameters used in the data simulations. • The simulations indicate that the model performs as expected under a “perfect” scenario. Smaller datasets induce various biases, many of which can be traced to the fact that, in our simulations, abundance and detectability are closely related. This biases the estimated mean of the underlying cover distribution upwards, and also impacts estimates of the intercept and regression coefficient in the detection sub-model. In real datasets this relationship would likely be less clear-cut, and we do not expect these biases to affect species’ relative annual trend estimates. • Finally, we apply the model to NPMS data collected between 2015 and 2018 for 86 grassland species. The model estimates ecologically sensible mean cover values for the species analysed. However, mean plot occupancies tended to centre on 0.5, suggesting that many species may not yet have sufficient data for mean occupancy to be well estimated. • A novel combined abundance/occupancy indicator has been developed for NPMS data in a Bayesian framework. The simulation tests and applications to real data explored in this report indicate that the model performs well in ideal scenarios; biases in less data-rich scenarios can largely be explained by relationships between abundance and detectability. These are likely to be less clear-cut in real datasets, and future work will explore how additional covariates describing a species’ detectability could be incorporated. Extending the model to create annual indices, and considering how these may be aggregated, will also be required for the future creation of a habitat quality indicator using NPMS data

Seasonal and interannual variations of HCN amounts in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere observed by MIPAS

We present a HCN climatology of the years 2002-2012, derived from FTIR limb emission spectra measured with the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on the ENVISAT satellite, with the main focus on biomass burning signatures in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. HCN is an almost unambiguous tracer of biomass burning with a tropospheric lifetime of 5-6 months and a stratospheric lifetime of about 2 years. The MIPAS climatology is in good agreement with the HCN distribution obtained by the spaceborne ACE-FTS experiment and with airborne in situ measurements performed during the INTEX-B campaign. The HCN amounts observed by MIPAS in the southern tropical and subtropical upper troposphere have an annual cycle peaking in October-November, i.e. 1-2 months after the maximum of southern hemispheric fire emissions. The probable reason for the time shift is the delayed onset of deep convection towards austral summer. Because of overlap of varying biomass burning emissions from South America and southern Africa with sporadically strong contributions from Indonesia, the size and strength of the southern hemispheric plume have considerable interannual variations, with monthly mean maxima at, for example, 14 km between 400 and more than 700 pptv. Within 1-2 months after appearance of the plume, a considerable portion of the enhanced HCN is transported southward to as far as Antarctic latitudes. The fundamental period of HCN variability in the northern upper troposphere is also an annual cycle with varying amplitude, which in the tropics peaks in May after and during the biomass burning seasons in northern tropical Africa and southern Asia, and in the subtropics peaks in July due to trapping of pollutants in the Asian monsoon anticyclone (AMA). However, caused by extensive biomass burning in Indonesia and by northward transport of part of the southern hemispheric plume, northern HCN maxima also occur around October/November in several years, which leads to semi-annual cycles. There is also a temporal shift between enhanced HCN in northern low and mid- to high latitudes, indicating northward transport of pollutants. Due to additional biomass burning at mid- and high latitudes, this meridional transport pattern is not as clear as in the Southern Hemisphere. Upper tropospheric HCN volume mixing ratios (VMRs) above the tropical oceans decrease to below 200 pptv, presumably caused by ocean uptake, especially during boreal winter and spring. The tropical stratospheric tape recorder signal with an apparently biennial period, which was detected in MLS and ACE-FTS data from mid-2004 to mid-2007, is corroborated by MIPAS HCN data. The tape recorder signal in the whole MIPAS data set exhibits periodicities of 2 and 4 years, which are generated by interannual variations in biomass burning. The positive anomalies of the years 2003, 2007 and 2011 are caused by succession of strongly enhanced HCN from southern hemispheric and Indonesian biomass burning in boreal autumn and of elevated HCN from northern tropical Africa and the AMA in subsequent spring and summer. The anomaly of 2005 seems to be due to springtime emissions from tropical Africa followed by release from the summertime AMA. The vertical transport time of the anomalies is 1 month or less between 14 and 17 km in the upper troposphere and 8-11 months between 17 and 25 km in the lower stratosphere

A reassessment of the discrepancies in the annual variation of δD-H₂O in the tropical lower stratosphere between the MIPAS and ACE-FTS satellite data sets

The annual variation of δD in the tropical lower stratosphere is a critical indicator for the relative importance of different processes contributing to the transport of water vapour through the cold tropical tropopause region into the stratosphere. Distinct observational discrepancies of the δD annual variation were visible in the works of Steinwagner et al. (2010) and Randel et al. (2012). Steinwagner et al. (2010) analysed MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) observations retrieved with the IMK/IAA (Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung in Karlsruhe, Germany, in collaboration with the Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía in Granada, Spain) processor, while Randel et al. (2012) focused on ACE-FTS (Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer) observations. Here we reassess the discrepancies based on newer MIPAS (IMK/IAA) and ACE-FTS data sets, also showing for completeness results from SMR (Sub-Millimetre Radiometer) observations and a ECHAM/MESSy (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Hamburg and Modular Earth Submodel System) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) simulation (Eichinger et al., 2015b). Similar to the old analyses, the MIPAS data set yields a pronounced annual variation (maximum about 75 ‰), while that derived from the ACE-FTS data set is rather weak (maximum about 25 ‰). While all data sets exhibit the phase progression typical for the tape recorder, the annual maximum in the ACE-FTS data set precedes that in the MIPAS data set by 2 to 3 months. We critically consider several possible reasons for the observed discrepancies, focusing primarily on the MIPAS data set. We show that the δD annual variation in the MIPAS data up to an altitude of 40 hPa is substantially impacted by a “start altitude effect”, i.e. dependency between the lowermost altitude where MIPAS retrievals are possible and retrieved data at higher altitudes. In itself this effect does not explain the differences with the ACE-FTS data. In addition, there is a mismatch in the vertical resolution of the MIPAS HDO and H2O data (being consistently better for HDO), which actually results in an artificial tape-recorder-like signal in δD. Considering these MIPAS characteristics largely removes any discrepancies between the MIPAS and ACE-FTS data sets and shows that the MIPAS data are consistent with a δD tape recorder signal with an amplitude of about 25 ‰ in the lowermost stratosphere

Spatial migration of temporal earthquake clusters driven by the transfer of differential stress between neighbouring fault/shear-zone structures

Uncertainty concerning the processes responsible for slip-rate fluctuations associated with temporal clustering of surface faulting earthquakes is a fundamental, unresolved issue in tectonics, because strain-rates accommodated by fault/shear-zone structures are the key to understanding the viscosity structure of the crust and seismic hazard. We constrain the timing and amplitude of slip-rate fluctuations that occurred on three active normal faults in central Italy over a time period of 20–30 kyrs, using in situ 36Cl cosmogenic dating of fault planes. We identify five periods of rapid slip on individual faults lasting a few millennia, separated time periods of up to 10 millennia with low or zero slip-rate. The rapid slip pulses migrated across the strike between the faults in two waves from SW to NE. We replicate this migration with a model where rapid slip induces changes in differential stress that drive changes in strain-rate on viscous shear zones that drive slip-rate variability on overlying brittle faults. Earthquakes increase the differential stress and strain-rate on underlying shear zones, which in turn accumulate strain, re-loading stress onto the overlying brittle fault. This positive feedback produces high strain-rate episodes containing several large magnitude surface faulting earthquakes (earthquake clusters), but also reduce the differential stress on the viscous portions of neighbouring fault/shear-zones slowing the occurrence of large-magnitude surface faulting earthquakes (earthquake anticlusters). Shear-zones on faults experiencing anticlusters continue to accumulate viscous strain at a lowered rate, and eventually this loads the overlying brittle fault to failure, initiating a period of rapid slip through the positive feedback process described above, and inducing lowered strain-rates onto neighbouring fault/shear-zones. We show that these patterns of differential stress change can replicate the measured earthquake clustering implied by the 36Cl data. The stress changes are related to the fault geometry in terms of distance and azimuth from the slipping structure, implying that (a) strain-rate and viscosity fluctuations for studies of continental rheology, and (b) slip-rates for seismic hazard purposes are to an extent predictable given knowledge of the fault system geometry

Octet-Baryon Form Factors in the Diquark Model

We present an alternative parameterization of the quark-diquark model of baryons which particularly takes care of the most recent proton electric form-factor data from the E136 experiment at SLAC. In addition to electromagnetic form factors of the nucleon, for which good agreement with data is achieved, we discuss the weak axial vector form factor of the nucleon as well as electromagnetic form factors of $\Lambda$ and $\Sigma$ hyperons. Technical advance in calculating the pertinent analytic expressions within perturbative quantum chromodynamics is gained by formulating the wave function of the quark-diquark system in a covariant way. Finally, we also comment on the influence of Sudakov corrections within the scope of the diquark model.Comment: 16 pages, WU-B 93-07, latex, uuencoded postscript files of 7 figures appended at the end of the latex fil

The Large Magellanic Cloud and the Distance Scale

The Magellanic Clouds, especially the Large Magellanic Cloud, are places where multiple distance indicators can be compared with each other in a straight-forward manner at considerable precision. We here review the distances derived from Cepheids, Red Variables, RR Lyraes, Red Clump Stars and Eclipsing Binaries, and show that the results from these distance indicators generally agree to within their errors, and the distance modulus to the Large Magellanic Cloud appears to be defined to 3% with a mean value of 18.48 mag, corresponding to 49.7 Kpc. The utility of the Magellanic Clouds in constructing and testing the distance scale will remain as we move into the era of Gaia.Comment: 23 pages, accepted for publication in Astrophysics and Space Science. From a presentation at the conference The Fundamental Cosmic Distance Scale: State of the Art and the Gaia Perspective, Naples, May 201

Out of phase Quaternary uplift-rate changes reveal normal fault interaction, implied by deformed marine palaeoshorelines

We have mapped and constrained the timing of tectonically deformed uplifted Late Quaternary palaeoshorelines in the Messina Strait, southern Italy, an area above a subduction zone containing active normal faults. The palaeoshorelines are preserved from up to thirteen Late Quaternary sea-level highstands, providing a record of the deformation over this timescale (~500 ka) for the Messina-Taormina Fault, the Reggio Calabria Fault and the Armo Fault. The palaeoshorelines reveal spatial patterns of uplift through time along the strike of these normal faults, and, given the across strike arrangement of the faults, also reveal how the contribution of each fault to the regional strain-rate progressed through time. The results reveal that the uplift rates mapped within the fault hangingwalls and footwalls were not constant through time, with a marked change in the location of strain accumulation at ~50 ka. The uplift rates, once converted into throw-rates, imply that the three faults comprised similar throw-rates prior to ~50 ka (in the range 0.77–0.96 mm/yr), with the Armo and Reggio Calabria faults then switching to lower rates (0.32 mm/yr and 0.33 mm/yr respectively), whilst the Messina-Taormina Fault accelerated to 2.34 mm/yr. The regional extension rate, gained by summing the implied heave rates across the three faults, was maintained through time despite this re-organisation of local strain accumulation at ~50 ka. We explain these out-of-phase fault throw-rate changes during the constant-rate regional extension conditions as due to interactions between these upper plate normal faults. We finally discuss how fault throw-rates changing through time may affect a long-term seismic hazard assessment within active normal fault systems

Nucleon Charge and Magnetization Densities from Sachs Form Factors

Relativistic prescriptions relating Sachs form factors to nucleon charge and magnetization densities are used to fit recent data for both the proton and the neutron. The analysis uses expansions in complete radial bases to minimize model dependence and to estimate the uncertainties in radial densities due to limitation of the range of momentum transfer. We find that the charge distribution for the proton is significantly broad than its magnetization density and that the magnetization density is slightly broader for the neutron than the proton. The neutron charge form factor is consistent with the Galster parametrization over the available range of Q^2, but relativistic inversion produces a softer radial density. Discrete ambiguities in the inversion method are analyzed in detail. The method of Mitra and Kumari ensures compatibility with pQCD and is most useful for extrapolating form factors to large Q^2.Comment: To appear in Phys. Rev. C. Two new figures and accompanying text have been added and several discussions have been clarified with no significant changes to the conclusions. Now contains 47 pages including 21 figures and 2 table

Seasonal and interannual variations of HCN amounts in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere observed by MIPAS

We present a HCN climatology of the years 2002-2012, derived from FTIR limb emission spectra measured with the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on the ENVISAT satellite, with the main focus on biomass burning signatures in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. HCN is an almost unambiguous tracer of biomass burning with a tropospheric lifetime of 5-6 months and a stratospheric lifetime of about 2 years. The MIPAS climatology is in good agreement with the HCN distribution obtained by the spaceborne ACE-FTS experiment and with airborne in situ measurements performed during the INTEX-B campaign. The HCN amounts observed by MIPAS in the southern tropical and subtropical upper troposphere have an annual cycle peaking in October-November, i.e. 1-2 months after the maximum of southern hemispheric fire emissions. The probable reason for the time shift is the delayed onset of deep convection towards austral summer. Because of overlap of varying biomass burning emissions from South America and southern Africa with sporadically strong contributions from Indonesia, the size and strength of the southern hemispheric plume have considerable interannual variations, with monthly mean maxima at, for example, 14 km between 400 and more than 700 pptv. Within 1-2 months after appearance of the plume, a considerable portion of the enhanced HCN is transported southward to as far as Antarctic latitudes. The fundamental period of HCN variability in the northern upper troposphere is also an annual cycle with varying amplitude, which in the tropics peaks in May after and during the biomass burning seasons in northern tropical Africa and southern Asia, and in the subtropics peaks in July due to trapping of pollutants in the Asian monsoon anticyclone (AMA). However, caused by extensive biomass burning in Indonesia and by northward transport of part of the southern hemispheric plume, northern HCN maxima also occur around October/November in several years, which leads to semi-annual cycles. There is also a temporal shift between enhanced HCN in northern low and mid- to high latitudes, indicating northward transport of pollutants. Due to additional biomass burning at mid- and high latitudes, this meridional transport pattern is not as clear as in the Southern Hemisphere. Upper tropospheric HCN volume mixing ratios (VMRs) above the tropical oceans decrease to below 200 pptv, presumably caused by ocean uptake, especially during boreal winter and spring. The tropical stratospheric tape recorder signal with an apparently biennial period, which was detected in MLS and ACE-FTS data from mid-2004 to mid-2007, is corroborated by MIPAS HCN data. The tape recorder signal in the whole MIPAS data set exhibits periodicities of 2 and 4 years, which are generated by interannual variations in biomass burning. The positive anomalies of the years 2003, 2007 and 2011 are caused by succession of strongly enhanced HCN from southern hemispheric and Indonesian biomass burning in boreal autumn and of elevated HCN from northern tropical Africa and the AMA in subsequent spring and summer. The anomaly of 2005 seems to be due to springtime emissions from tropical Africa followed by release from the summertime AMA. The vertical transport time of the anomalies is 1 month or less between 14 and 17 km in the upper troposphere and 8-11 months between 17 and 25 km in the lower stratosphere