Standards and Practices for Forecasting

One hundred and thirty-nine principles are used to summarize knowledge about forecasting. They cover formulating a problem, obtaining information about it, selecting and applying methods, evaluating methods, and using forecasts. Each principle is described along with its purpose, the conditions under which it is relevant, and the strength and sources of evidence. A checklist of principles is provided to assist in auditing the forecasting process. An audit can help one to find ways to improve the forecasting process and to avoid legal liability for poor forecasting

Selecting Forecasting Methods

I examined six ways of selecting forecasting methods: Convenience, “what’s easy,” is inexpensive, but risky. Market popularity, “what others do,” sounds appealing but is unlikely to be of value because popularity and success may not be related and because it overlooks some methods. Structured judgment, “what experts advise,” which is to rate methods against prespecified criteria, is promising. Statistical criteria, “what should work,” are widely used and valuable, but risky if applied narrowly. Relative track records, “what has worked in this situation,” are expensive because they depend on conducting evaluation studies. Guidelines from prior research, “what works in this type of situation,” relies on published research and offers a low-cost, effective approach to selection. Using a systematic review of prior research, I developed a flow chart to guide forecasters in selecting among ten forecasting methods. Some key findings: Given enough data, quantitative methods are more accurate than judgmental methods. When large changes are expected, causal methods are more accurate than naive methods. Simple methods are preferable to complex methods; they are easier to understand, less expensive, and seldom less accurate. To select a judgmental method, determine whether there are large changes, frequent forecasts, conflicts among decision makers, and policy considerations. To select a quantitative method, consider the level of knowledge about relationships, the amount of change involved, the type of data, the need for policy analysis, and the extent of domain knowledge. When selection is difficult, combine forecasts from different methods

Personhood, consciousness, and god : how to be a proper pantheist

© Springer Nature B.V. 2018In this paper I develop a theory of personhood which leaves open the possibility of construing the universe as a person. If successful, it removes one bar to endorsing pantheism. I do this by examining a rising school of thought on personhood, on which persons, or selves, are understood as identical to episodes of consciousness. Through a critique of this experiential approach to personhood, I develop a theory of self as constituted of qualitative mental contents, but where these contents are also capable of unconscious existence. On this theory, though we can be conscious of our selves, consciousness turns out to be inessential to personhood. This move, I then argue, provides resources for responding to the pantheist’s problem of God’s person.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Aggregation of human salivary Ca-proteinates in the presence of simple carbohydrates in vitro

The effect of 8 polyols and 14 aldoses or ketoses on the spontaneous aggregation of Ca-proteinates was followed spectrophotometrically in supernatants and filtrates of human mixed saliva. Each carbohydrate was added to the saliva samples at 37°C and the precipitated material was analyzed for protein, total carbohydrate and Ca. Based on their effect on aggregation, the carbohydrates could be divided into three groups: 1) those that showed no effect on aggregation: D-xylose, D-ribose and i-erythritol, 2) those that inhibited aggregation strongly: xylitol, Dsorbitol and D-mannitoi, and 3) those that inhibited aggregation moderately: glucose, fructose and sucrose. The inhibitory effect of the above polyols on the aggregation of Ca-proteinates varied greatly among the saliva donors, and correlated positively with the turbidity of the saliva and its protein content more than with the Ca-concentration or the pH of the saliva sample. It is suggested that inhibition of aggregation shown the most clearly for xylitol, sorbitol and mannitol manifests itself as a retardation of the final, irreversible aggregation of those glycoproteins that already exist in a precipitated form and which are responsible for the turbidity of saliva.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75574/1/j.1600-0722.1986.tb01376.x.pd

Would you be surprised if this patient died?: Preliminary exploration of first and second year residents' approach to care decisions in critically ill patients

BACKGROUND: How physicians approach decision-making when caring for critically ill patients is poorly understood. This study aims to explore how residents think about prognosis and approach care decisions when caring for seriously ill, hospitalized patients. METHODS: Qualitative study where we conducted structured discussions with first and second year internal medicine residents (n = 8) caring for critically ill patients during Medical Intensive Care Unit Ethics and Discharge Planning Rounds. Residents were asked to respond to questions beginning with "Would you be surprised if this patient died?" RESULTS: An equal number of residents responded that they would (n = 4) or would not (n = 4) be surprised if their patient died. Reasons for being surprised included the rapid onset of an acute illness, reversible disease, improving clinical course and the patient's prior survival under similar circumstances. Residents reported no surprise with worsening clinical course. Based on the realization that their patient might die, residents cited potential changes in management that included clarifying treatment goals, improving communication with families, spending more time with patients and ordering fewer laboratory tests. Perceived or implied barriers to changes in management included limited time, competing clinical priorities, "not knowing" a patient, limited knowledge and experience, presence of diagnostic or prognostic uncertainty and unclear treatment goals. CONCLUSIONS: These junior-level residents appear to rely on clinical course, among other factors, when assessing prognosis and the possibility for death in severely ill patients. Further investigation is needed to understand how these factors impact decision-making and whether perceived barriers to changes in patient management influence approaches to care

Parity-Violating Electron Scattering from 4He and the Strange Electric Form Factor of the Nucleon

We have measured the parity-violating electroweak asymmetry in the elastic scattering of polarized electrons from ^4He at an average scattering angle = 5.7 degrees and a four-momentum transfer Q^2 = 0.091 GeV^2. From these data, for the first time, the strange electric form factor of the nucleon G^s_E can be isolated. The measured asymmetry of A_PV = (6.72 +/- 0.84 (stat) +/- 0.21 (syst) parts per million yields a value of G^s_E = -0.038 +/- 0.042 (stat) +/- 0.010 (syst), consistent with zero

Predictors of Upper Extremity Discomfort: A Longitudinal Study of Industrial and Clerical Workers

Upper extremity discomfort associated with work activity is common with a prevalence of over 50% in many settings. This study followed a cohort of 501 active workers for an average of 5.4 years. Cases were defined as workers who were asymptomatic or had a low discomfort score of 1 or 2 at baseline testing and went on to report a discomfort score of 4 or above on a 10-point visual analog scale. This change is considered clinically significant. Controls had a low baseline discomfort score and continued to have a low discomfort rating throughout the study. The risk factors found to have the highest predictive value for identifying a person who is likely to develop a significant upper extremity discomfort rating included age over 40, a BMI over 28, a complaint of baseline discomfort, the severity of the baseline discomfort rating and a job that had a high hand activity level (based upon hand repetition and force). The risk profile identified both ergonomic and personal health factors as risks and both factors may be amenable to prevention strategies.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/45012/1/10926_2005_Article_871.pd

The Role of Individual Variables, Organizational Variables and Moral Intensity Dimensions in Libyan Management Accountants’ Ethical Decision Making

This study investigates the association of a broad set of variables with the ethical decision making of management accountants in Libya. Adopting a cross-sectional methodology, a questionnaire including four different ethical scenarios was used to gather data from 229 participants. For each scenario, ethical decision making was examined in terms of the recognition, judgment and intention stages of Rest’s model. A significant relationship was found between ethical recognition and ethical judgment and also between ethical judgment and ethical intention, but ethical recognition did not significantly predict ethical intention—thus providing support for Rest’s model. Organizational variables, age and educational level yielded few significant results. The lack of significance for codes of ethics might reflect their relative lack of development in Libya, in which case Libyan companies should pay attention to their content and how they are supported, especially in the light of the under-development of the accounting profession in Libya. Few significant results were also found for gender, but where they were found, males showed more ethical characteristics than females. This unusual result reinforces the dangers of gender stereotyping in business. Personal moral philosophy and moral intensity dimensions were generally found to be significant predictors of the three stages of ethical decision making studied. One implication of this is to give more attention to ethics in accounting education, making the connections between accounting practice and (in Libya) Islam. Overall, this study not only adds to the available empirical evidence on factors affecting ethical decision making, notably examining three stages of Rest’s model, but also offers rare insights into the ethical views of practising management accountants and provides a benchmark for future studies of ethical decision making in Muslim majority countries and other parts of the developing world

Learning the game: Football fandom culture and the origins of practice

Based on the partial results of a doctoral programme, this article explores the significance of Pierre Bourdieu's theory of practice for explaining the experiential processes involved in becoming a football fan. Whilst recognizing value in the theoretical construct habitus, in the sense that football cultures appear to be self perpetuating (in part) based on histories of objective social conditions and accrued experiences, the findings indicate that caution must be taken not to overemphasize the structuring power of habitus and the unopposed continuation of tradition at the expense of the reflexive nature and subtle transformation of fandom practice in late modern life