The diurnal nature of future extreme precipitation intensification

Short‐duration, high‐impact precipitation events in the extratropics are invariably convective in nature, typically occur during the summer, and are projected to intensify under climate change. The occurrence of convective precipitation is strongly regulated by the diurnal convective cycle, peaking in the late afternoon. Here we perform very high resolution (convection‐permitting) regional climate model simulations to study the scaling of extreme precipitation under climate change across the diurnal cycle. We show that the future intensification of extreme precipitation has a strong diurnal signal and that intraday scaling far in excess of overall scaling, and indeed thermodynamic expectations, is possible. We additionally show that, under a strong climate change scenario, the probability maximum for the occurrence of heavy to extreme precipitation may shift from late afternoon to the overnight/morning period. We further identify the thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms which modify future extreme environments, explaining both the future scaling's diurnal signal and departure from thermodynamic expectations

The multi-parameter remote measurement of rainfall

The measurement of rainfall by remote sensors is investigated. One parameter radar rainfall measurement is limited because both reflectivity and rain rate are dependent on at least two parameters of the drop size distribution (DSD), i.e., representative raindrop size and number concentration. A generalized rain parameter diagram is developed which includes a third distribution parameter, the breadth of the DSD, to better specify rain rate and all possible remote variables. Simulations show the improvement in accuracy attainable through the use of combinations of two and three remote measurables. The spectrum of remote measurables is reviewed. These include path integrated techniques of radiometry and of microwave and optical attenuation

Broad-line region structure and kinematics in the radio galaxy 3C 120

Broad emission lines originate in the surroundings of supermassive black holes in the centers of active galactic nuclei (AGN). One method to investigate the extent, structure, and kinematics of the BLR is to study the continuum and line profile variability in AGN. We selected the radio-loud Seyfert 1 galaxy 3C 120 as a target for this study. We took spectra with a high signal-to-noise ratio of 3C 120 with the 9.2m Hobby-Eberly Telescope between Sept. 2008 and March 2009. In parallel, we photometrically monitored the continuum flux at the Wise observatory. We analyzed the continuum and line profile variations in detail (1D and 2D reverberation mapping) and modeled the geometry of the line-emitting regions based on the line profiles. We show that the BLR in 3C 120 is stratified with respect to the distance of the line-emitting regions from the center with respect to the line widths (FWHM) of the rms profiles and with respect to the variability amplitude of the emission lines. The emission line wings of H{\alpha} and H{\beta} respond much faster than their central region. This is explained by accretion disk models. In addition, these lines show a stronger response in the red wings. However, the velocity-delay maps of the helium lines show a stronger response in the blue wing. Furthermore, the HeII{\lambda}4686 line responds faster in the blue wing in contradiction to observations made one and a half years later when the galaxy was in a lower state. The faster response in the blue wing is an indication for central outflow motions when this galaxy was in a bright state during our observations. The vertical BLR structure in 3C 120 coincides with that of other AGN. We confirm the general trend: the emission lines of narrow line AGN originate at larger distances from the midplane than AGN with broader emission lines.Comment: 18 pages, 25 figures, Astronomy & Astrophysics in pres

UHF and VHF radar observations of thunderstorms

A study of thunderstorms was made in the Summer of 1985 with the 430-MHz and 50-MHz radars at the Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico. Both radars use the 300-meter dish, which gives a beam width of less than 2 degrees even at these long wavelengths. Though the radars are steerable, only vertical beams were used in this experiment. The height resolution was 300 and 150 meters for the UHF and VHF, respectively. Lightning echoes, as well as returns from precipitation and clear-air turbulence were detected with both wavelengths. Large increases in the returned power were found to be coincident with increasing downward vertical velocities at UHF, whereas at VHF the total power returned was relatively constant during the life of a storm. This was attributed to the fact that the VHF is more sensitive to scattering from the turbulence-induced inhomogeneities in the refractive index and less sensitive to scatter from precipitation particles. On occasion, the shape of the Doppler spectra was observed to change with the occurrence of a lightning discharge in the pulse volume. Though the total power and mean reflectivity weighted Doppler velocity changed little during these events, the power is Doppler frequency bins near that corresponding to the updraft did increase substantially within a fraction of a second after a discharge was detected in the beam. This suggests some interaction between precipitation and lightning

A wall interference assessment/correction system

A Wall Signature method, the Hackett method, has been selected to be adapted for the 12-ft Wind Tunnel wall interference assessment/correction (WIAC) system in the present phase. This method uses limited measurements of the static pressure at the wall, in conjunction with the solid wall boundary condition, to determine the strength and distribution of singularities representing the test article. The singularities are used in turn for estimating wall interferences at the model location. The Wall Signature method will be formulated for application to the unique geometry of the 12-ft Tunnel. The development and implementation of a working prototype will be completed, delivered and documented with a software manual. The WIAC code will be validated by conducting numerically simulated experiments rather than actual wind tunnel experiments. The simulations will be used to generate both free-air and confined wind-tunnel flow fields for each of the test articles over a range of test configurations. Specifically, the pressure signature at the test section wall will be computed for the tunnel case to provide the simulated 'measured' data. These data will serve as the input for the WIAC method-Wall Signature method. The performance of the WIAC method then may be evaluated by comparing the corrected parameters with those for the free-air simulation. Each set of wind tunnel/test article numerical simulations provides data to validate the WIAC method. A numerical wind tunnel test simulation is initiated to validate the WIAC methods developed in the project. In the present reported period, the blockage correction has been developed and implemented for a rectangular tunnel as well as the 12-ft Pressure Tunnel. An improved wall interference assessment and correction method for three-dimensional wind tunnel testing is presented in the appendix

A wall interference assessment/correction system

A Wall Signature method originally developed by Hackett has been selected to be adapted for the Ames 12-ft Wind Tunnel WIAC system in the project. This method uses limited measurements of the static pressure at the wall, in conjunction with the solid wall boundary condition, to determine the strength and distribution of singularities representing the test article. The singularities are used in turn for estimating blockage wall interference. The lifting interference will be treated separately by representing in a horseshoe vortex system for the model's lifting effects. The development and implementation of a working prototype will be completed, delivered and documented with a software manual. The WIAC code will be validated by conducting numerically simulated experiments rather than actual wind tunnel experiments. The simulations will be used to generate both free-air and confined wind-tunnel flow fields for each of the test articles over a range of test configurations. Specifically, the pressure signature at the test section wall will be computed for the tunnel case to provide the simulated 'measured' data. These data will serve as the input for the WIAC method--Wall Signature method. The performance of the WIAC method then may be evaluated by comparing the corrected data with those of the free-air simulation

Weather impacts on various types of road crashes: a quantitative analysis using generalized additive models

Adverse weather conditions can have different effects on different types of road crashes. We quantify the combined effects of traffic volume and meteorological parameters on hourly probabilities of 78 different crash types using generalized additive models. Using tensor product bases, we model non-linear relationships and combined effects of different meteorological parameters. We evaluate the increase in relative risk of different crash types in case of precipitation, sun glare and high wind speeds. The largest effect of snow is found in case of single-truck crashes, while rain has a larger effect on single-car crashes. Sun glare increases the probability of multi-car crashes, in particular at higher speed limits and in case of rear-end crashes. High wind speeds increase the probability of single-truck crashes and, for all vehicle types, the risk of crashes with objects blown on the road. A comparison of the predictive power of models with and without meteorological variables shows an improvement of scores of up to 24%, which makes the models suitable for applications in real-time traffic management or impact-based warning systems. These could be used by authorities to issue weather-dependent driving restrictions or situation-specific on-board warnings to improve road safety

Modeling hourly weather-related road traffic variations for different vehicle types in Germany

Weather has a substantial influence on people’s travel behavior. In this study we analyze if meteorological variables can improve predictions of hourly traffic counts at 1400 stations on federal roads and highways in Germany. Motorbikes, cars, vans and trucks are distinguished. It is evaluated in how far the mean squared error of Poisson regression models for hourly traffic counts is reduced by using precipitation, temperature, cloud cover and wind speed data. It is shown that in particular motorbike counts are strongly weather-dependent. On federal roads the mean squared error is reduced by up to 60% in models with meteorological predictor variables, when compared to models without meteorological variables. A detailed analysis of the models for motorbike counts reveals non-linear relationships between the meteorological variables and motorbike counts. Car counts are shown to be specifically sensitive to weather in touristic regions like seaside resorts and nature parks. The findings allow for several potential applications like improvements of route planning in navigation systems, implementations in traffic management systems, day-ahead planning of visitor numbers in touristic areas or the usage in road crash modelling

Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change

Annual maxima of daily precipitation sums can be typically described well with a stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In many regions of the world, such a description does also work well for monthly maxima for a given month of the year. However, the description of seasonal and interannual variations requires the use of non-stationary models. Therefore, in this paper we propose a non-stationary modeling strategy applied to long time series from rain gauges in Germany. Seasonal variations in the GEV parameters are modeled with a series of harmonic functions and interannual variations with higher-order orthogonal polynomials. By including interactions between the terms, we allow for the seasonal cycle to change with time. Frequently, the shape parameter ξ of the GEV is estimated as a constant value also in otherwise instationary models. Here, we allow for seasonal–interannual variations and find that this is beneficial. A suitable model for each time series is selected with a stepwise forward regression method using the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). A cross-validated verification with the quantile skill score (QSS) and its decomposition reveals a performance gain of seasonally–interannually varying return levels with respect to a model allowing for seasonal variations only. Some evidence can be found that the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Germany can be detected, whereas changes are regionally very different. In general, an increase in return levels is more prevalent than a decrease. The median of the extreme precipitation distribution (2-year return level) generally increases during spring and autumn and is shifted to later times in the year; heavy precipitation (100-year return level) rises mainly in summer and occurs earlier in the year

A classification algorithm for selective dynamical downscaling of precipitation extremes

High-resolution climate data O(1km) at the catchment scale can be of great value to both hydrological modellers and end users, in particular for the study of extreme precipitation. While dynamical downscaling with convection-permitting models is a valuable approach for producing quality high-resolution O(1km) data, its added value can often not be realized due to the prohibitive computational expense. Here we present a novel and flexible classification algorithm for discriminating between days with an elevated potential for extreme precipitation over a catchment and days without, so that dynamical downscaling to convection-permitting resolution can be selectively performed on high-risk days only, drastically reducing total computational expense compared to continuous simulations; the classification method can be applied to climate model data or reanalyses. Using observed precipitation and the corresponding synoptic-scale circulation patterns from reanalysis, characteristic extremal circulation patterns are identified for the catchment via a clustering algorithm. These extremal patterns serve as references against which days can be classified as potentially extreme, subject to additional tests of relevant meteorological predictors in the vicinity of the catchment. Applying the classification algorithm to reanalysis, the set of potential extreme days (PEDs) contains well below 10% of all days, though it includes essentially all extreme days; applying the algorithm to reanalysis-driven regional climate simulations over Europe (12km resolution) shows similar performance, and the subsequently dynamically downscaled simulations (2km resolution) well reproduce the observed precipitation statistics of the PEDs from the training period. Additional tests on continuous 12km resolution historical and future (RCP8.5) climate simulations, downscaled in 2km resolution time slices, show the algorithm again reducing the number of days to simulate by over 90% and performing consistently across climate regimes. The downscaling framework we propose represents a computationally inexpensive means of producing high-resolution climate data, focused on extreme precipitation, at the catchment scale, while still retaining the advantages of convection-permitting dynamical downscaling