Reliability of regional climate model simulations of extremes and of long-term climate

We present two case studies that demonstrate how a common evaluation methodology can be used to assess the reliability of regional climate model simulations from different fields of research. In Case I, we focused on the agricultural yield loss risk for maize in Northeastern Brazil during a drought linked to an El-Niño event. In Case II, the present-day regional climatic conditions in Europe for a 10-year period are simulated. To comprehensively evaluate the model results for both kinds of investigations, we developed a general methodology. On its basis, we elaborated and implemented modules to assess the quality of model results using both advanced visualization techniques and statistical algorithms. Besides univariate approaches for individual near-surface parameters, we used multivariate statistics to investigate multiple near-surface parameters of interest together. For the latter case, we defined generalized quality measures to quantify the model's accuracy. Furthermore, we elaborated a diagnosis tool applicable for atmospheric variables to assess the model's accuracy in representing the physical processes above the surface under various aspects. By means of this evaluation approach, it could be demonstrated in Case Study I that the accuracy of the applied regional climate model resides at the same level as that we found for another regional model and a global model. Excessive precipitation during the rainy season in coastal regions could be identified as a major contribution leading to this result. In Case Study II, we also identified the accuracy of the investigated mean characteristics for near-surface temperature and precipitation to be comparable to another regional model. In this case, an artificial modulation of the used initial and boundary data during preprocessing could be identified as the major source of error in the simulation. Altogether, the achieved results for the presented investigations indicate the potential of our methodology to be applied as a common test bed to different fields of research in regional climate modeling

Matched Filters, Mate Choice and the Evolution of Sexually Selected Traits

Background Fundamental for understanding the evolution of communication systems is both the variation in a signal and how this affects the behavior of receivers, as well as variation in preference functions of receivers, and how this affects the variability of the signal. However, individual differences in female preference functions and their proximate causation have rarely been studied. Methodology/Principal Findings Calling songs of male field crickets represent secondary sexual characters and are subject to sexual selection by female choice. Following predictions from the “matched filter hypothesis” we studied the tuning of an identified interneuron in a field cricket, known for its function in phonotaxis, and correlated this with the preference of the same females in two-choice trials. Females vary in their neuronal frequency tuning, which strongly predicts the preference in a choice situation between two songs differing in carrier frequency. A second “matched filter” exists in directional hearing, where reliable cues for sound localization occur only in a narrow frequency range. There is a strong correlation between the directional tuning and the behavioural preference in no-choice tests. This second “matched filter” also varies widely in females, and surprisingly, differs on average by 400 Hz from the neuronal frequency tuning. Conclusions/Significance Our findings on the mismatch of the two “matched filters” would suggest that the difference in these two filters appears to be caused by their evolutionary history, and the different trade-offs which exist between sound emission, transmission and detection, as well as directional hearing under specific ecological settings. The mismatched filter situation may ultimately explain the maintenance of considerable variation in the carrier frequency of the male signal despite stabilizing selection

Falsely Low Results in CA 125 Determination Due to Anti-Idiotypic Antibodies Induced by Infusion of [131I]F(ab′)2 Fragments of the OC125 Antibody

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