Transfer Problem Dynamics: Macroeconomics of the Franco-Prussian War Indemnity

We study the classic transfer problem of predicting the effects of an international transfer on the terms of trade and the current account. A two-country model with debt and capital allows for realistic features of historical transfers: they follow wartime increases in government spending and are financed partly by borrowing. The model is applied to the largest historical transfer, the Franco-Prussian War indemnity of 1871-1873. In these three years, France transferred to Germany an amount equal to 22 percent of a year's GDP. When the transfer is combined with measured shocks to fiscal policy and a proxy for productivity shocks over the period, the model provides a very close fit to the historical sample paths of French GDP, terms of trade, net exports, and aggregate consumption. This makes a strong case for the dynamic general equilibrium approach to studying the transfer problem.transfer problem, current account, terms of trade

Apostasy, usurpation, and biblical genealogies: The question of sovereignty in Iberian encounters in the tropics (15th-16th centuries).

Aquest article examina diversos escenaris de trobada entre ibèrics i locals no abrahàmics, concretament a Amèrica, les Illes Canàries i l’Àfrica occidental. Basat en escrits dels segles XV i XVI, aquest treball analitza les diferents visions dels ibèrics d’època moderna sobre la capacitat dels no cristians de mantenir el dominium; sobre la comprensió dels ibèrics de l’abast geogràfic del cristianisme primerenc i les implicacions que té per a les reivindicacions polítiques en època moderna, i sobre les lectures dels ibèrics relatives a genealogies bíbliques i el pes que comportaven els arguments legals sobre sobirania i esclavitud.This article examines several theaters of encounter between Iberians and non-Abrahamic Gentiles, specifically the Americas, the Canary Islands, and West Africa. Drawing on fifteenth- and sixteenth-century writings, the piece addresses early modern Iberians’ disparate views on the capacity of non-Christians to hold dominium; on Iberians’ understanding of the geographical reach of early Christianity and the implications that held for early modern political claims, and on Iberians’ readings of biblical genealogies and what weight those carried in legal arguments concerning sovereignty and slavery.Este artículo examina varios escenarios de encuentro entre ibéricos y locales no abrahámicos, concretamente en América, las Islas Canarias y África occidental. Basado en escritos de los siglos XV y XVI, este trabajo analiza las diferentes visiones de los ibéricos de época moderna sobre la capacidad de los no cristianos de mantener el dominium; sobre la comprensión de los ibéricos del alcance geográfico del cristianismo temprano y las implicaciones que tiene para las reivindicaciones políticas en época moderna; y sobre las lecturas de los ibéricos relativas a genealogías bíblicas y el peso que conllevaban los argumentos legales sobre soberanía y esclavitud

Prenatal diagnosis of trisomy 6q25.3-qter and monosomy 10q26.12-qter by array CGH in a fetus with an apparently normal karyotype.

We present the prenatal case of a 12.5-Mb duplication involving 6q25-qter and a 12.2-Mb deletion encompassing 10q26-qter diagnosed by aCGH, while conventional karyotype showed normal results. The genotype-phenotype correlation between individual microarray and clinical findings adds to the emerging atlas of chromosomal abnormalities associated with specific prenatal ultrasound abnormalities

Culture of airway epithelial cells from neonates sampled within 48-hours of birth

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Professional Forecasts

Standard models of international risk sharing with complete asset markets predict a positive association between relative consumption growth and real exchange-rate depreciation across countries. The striking lack of evidence for this link the consumption/real-exchange-rate anomaly or Backus-Smith puzzle - has prompted research on risk-sharing indicators with incomplete asset markets. That research generally implies that the association holds in forecasts, rather than realizations. Using professional forecasts for 28 countries for 1990-2008 we find no such association, thus deepening the puzzle. Independent evidence on the weak link between forecasts for consumption and real interest rates suggests that the presence of 'hand-to-mouth' consumers may help to resolve the anomaly.

Occupational health and safety in aquaculture: organisation of work and employment in small seaweed farms in North West Europe

There is evidence that seaweed production can involve a variety of physical risks, but there has been little study of how wider contextual factors — such as enterprise size, economic and business relations and forms of employment arrangements — may affect workers’ safety. This study explores the impact of such aspects on workers’ experiences of OSH risks and their management in the developing seaweed industry, in North West Europe. Based on qualitative findings from a survey and discussions with owners/managers, workers and stakeholders in the industry, the study identified a number of issues relating to occupational safety and health in seaweed production. These include the predominance of micro small enterprises, the presence of significant risks to health and safety and limitations in the capacity of owner/managers to address them, as well as structural and economic factors in the sector that promote precarious work, and the low visibility and inaccessibility of micro and small enterprises to both public and private regulation. The paper discusses experiences of these issues in the emergent industry, and relates them to the wider literature about work health and safety in micro and small firms and precarious and non-standard forms of work, typically found in agriculture and food production. Findings point to the need for better orchestration of public and private regulatory influences and further research to determine if strategies that are seen as successful in other sectors could be transferred to the emergent European seaweed industry