Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis, Part 2: GIS Methodology

Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) in geothermal exploration originates from a systematic methodology developed within the petroleum industry and is based on a geologic, geophysical, and hydrologic framework of identified geothermal systems. We tailored this methodology to study the geothermal resource potential of the Snake River Plain and surrounding region, but it can be adapted to other geothermal resource settings. We adapted the PFA approach to geothermal resource exploration by cataloging the critical elements controlling exploitable hydrothermal systems, establishing risk matrices that evaluate these elements in terms of both probability of success and level of knowledge, and building a code-based ‘processing model’ to process results. A geographic information system was used to compile a range of different data types, which we refer to as elements (e.g., faults, vents, heat flow, etc.), with distinct characteristics and measures of confidence. Discontinuous discrete data (points, lines, or polygons) for each element were transformed into continuous interpretive 2D grid surfaces called evidence layers. Because different data types have varying uncertainties, most evidence layers have an accompanying confidence layer which reflects spatial variations in these uncertainties. Risk layers, as defined here, are the product of evidence and confidence layers, and are the building blocks used to construct Common Risk Segment (CRS) maps for heat, permeability, and seal, using a weighted sum for permeability and heat, but a different approach with seal. CRS maps quantify the variable risk associated with each of these critical components. In a final step, the three CRS maps were combined into a Composite Common Risk Segment (CCRS) map, using a modified weighted sum, for results that reveal favorable areas for geothermal exploration. Additional maps are also presented that do not mix contributions from evidence and confidence (to allow an isolated view of evidence and confidence), as well as maps that calculate favorability using the product of components instead of a weighted sum (to highlight where all components are present). Our approach helped to identify areas of high geothermal favorability in the western and central Snake River Plain during the first phase of study and helped identify more precise local drilling targets during the second phase of work. By identifying favorable areas, this methodology can help to reduce uncertainty in geothermal energy exploration and development

Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis, Part 1: Example from the Snake River Plain, Idaho

The Snake River Plain (SRP) volcanic province overlies the track of the Yellowstone hotspot, a thermal anomaly that extends deep into the mantle. Most of the area is underlain by a basaltic volcanic province that overlies a mid-crustal intrusive complex, which in turn provides the long-term heat flux needed to sustain geothermal systems. Previous studies have identified several known geothermal resource areas within the SRP. For the geothermal study presented herein, our goals were to: (1) adapt the methodology of Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) for geothermal exploration to create a formal basis for its application to geothermal systems, (2) assemble relevant data for the SRP from publicly available and private sources, and (3) build a geothermal PFA model for the SRP and identify the most promising plays, using GIS-based software tools that are standard in the petroleum industry. The study focused on identifying three critical resource parameters for exploitable hydrothermal systems in the SRP: heat source, reservoir and recharge permeability, and cap or seal. Data included in the compilation for heat source were heat flow, distribution and ages of volcanic vents, groundwater temperatures, thermal springs and wells, helium isotope anomalies, and reservoir temperatures estimated using geothermometry. Reservoir and recharge permeability was inferred from the analysis of stress orientations and magnitudes, post-Miocene faults, and subsurface structural lineaments based on magnetics and gravity data. Data for cap or seal included the distribution of impermeable lake sediments and clay-seal associated with hydrothermal alteration below the regional aquifer. These data were used to compile Common Risk Segment maps for heat, permeability, and seal, which were combined to create a Composite Common Risk Segment map for all southern Idaho that reflects the risk associated with geothermal resource exploration and identifies favorable resource tracks. Our regional assessment indicated that undiscovered geothermal resources may be located in several areas of the SRP. Two of these areas, the western SRP and Camas Prairie, were selected for more detailed assessment, during which heat, permeability, and seal were evaluated using newly collected field data and smaller grid parameters to refine the location of potential resources. These higher resolution assessments illustrate the flexibility of our approach over a range of scales

Evaluation of α-amylase activity and falling number around maturity for soft white and soft red wheat varieties in Michigan

White wheat is, categorically, more susceptible to pre-harvest sprouting (PHS) than red wheat. Physiological maturity (PM), defined as when the seeds reach their maximum dry weight, is a critical time before harvesting. The objective of this study was to determine a reference level of α-amylase activity and the corresponding Falling Number (FN) value near the time of PM of selected red and white cultivars in the absence of PHS inducing conditions. Twenty-four soft winter wheat genotypes (12 red and 12 white) adapted to Michigan with varying historic levels of susceptibility to PHS were planted in an α-lattice design in two locations from 2008 to 2010. Spikes were collected three days before PM, at PM, and three days post PM. Samples were freeze-dried, threshed, milled and evaluated for α-amylase activity and FN value using high throughput method. Within genotype, clear trends were observed in the reduction of α-amylase activity and the increase of FN value during the physiological maturation. A nonlinear relationship between α-amylase activity and FN value was fit with an r2 of 0.801. Significant differences were observed for genotype for both α-amylase activity and FN value for all collection time points. No significant differences were found between red and white wheat, categorically, at any of the three time-points in the absence of PHS. The evaluation results provide a critical reference prior to induction of PHS. The α-amylase activity and FN tests show different advantages in analyzing PHS samples as the relationship between α-amylase activity and FN value is not linear over wide-ranging results

A Comparative Study of Defeasible Argumentation and Non-monotonic Fuzzy Reasoning for Elderly Survival Prediction Using Biomarkers

Computational argumentation has been gaining momentum as a solid theoretical research discipline for inference under uncertainty with incomplete and contradicting knowledge. However, its practical counterpart is underdeveloped, with a lack of studies focused on the investigation of its impact in real-world settings and with real knowledge. In this study, computational argumentation is compared against non-monotonic fuzzy reasoning and evaluated in the domain of biological markers for the prediction of mortality in an elderly population. Different non-monotonic argument-based models and fuzzy reasoning models have been designed using an extensive knowledge base gathered from an expert in the field. An analysis of the true positive and false positive rate of the inferences of such models has been performed. Findings indicate a superior inferential capacity of the designed argument-based models

Cryogenic Optical Performance of a Lightweighted Mirror Assembly for Future Space Astronomical Telescopes: Correlating Optical Test Results and Thermal Optical Model

A 43cm diameter stacked core mirror demonstrator was interferometrically tested at room temperature down to 250 degrees Kelvin for thermal deformation. The 2.5m radius of curvature spherical mirror assembly was constructed by low temperature fusing three abrasive waterjet core sections between two CNC pocket milled face sheets. The 93% lightweighted Corning ULE mirror assembly represents the current state of the art for future UV, optical, near IR space telescopes. During the multiple thermal test cycles, test results of interferometric test, thermal IR images of the front face were recorded in order to validate thermal optical model

Efficacy and safety of indacaterol 150 μg once-daily in COPD: a double-blind, randomised, 12-week study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Indacaterol is a novel, once-daily (o.d.) inhaled, long-acting <it>β</it>₂-agonist in development for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This 12-week, double-blind study compared the efficacy, safety, and tolerability of indacaterol to that of placebo in patients with moderate-to-severe COPD.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Efficacy variables included 24-h trough FEV₁(mean of 23 h 10 min and 23 h 45 min post-dose) at Week 12 (primary endpoint) and after Day 1, and the percentage of COPD days with poor control (i.e., worsening symptoms). Safety was assessed by adverse events (AEs), mean serum potassium and blood glucose, QTc (Fridericia), and vital signs.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Patients were randomised (n = 416, mean age 63 years) to receive either indacaterol 150 <it>μ</it>g o.d. (n = 211) or placebo (n = 205) via a single-dose dry-powder inhaler; 87.5% completed the study. Trough FEV₁(LSM ± SEM) at Week 12 was 1.48 ± 0.018 L for indacaterol and 1.35 ± 0.019 L for placebo, a clinically relevant difference of 130 ± 24 mL (p < 0.001). Trough FEV₁after one dose was significantly higher with indacaterol than placebo (p < 0.001). Indacaterol demonstrated significantly higher peak FEV₁than placebo, both on Day 1 and at Week 12, with indacaterol-placebo differences (LSM ± SEM) of 190 ± 28 (p < 0.001) and 160 ± 28 mL (p < 0.001), respectively. Standardised AUC measurements for FEV₁(between 5 min and 4 h, 5 min and 1 h, and 1 and 4 h post-dose) at Week 12 were all significantly greater with indacaterol than placebo (p < 0.001), with LSM (± SEM) differences of 170 ± 24, 180 ± 24, and 170 ± 24 mL, respectively. Indacaterol significantly reduced the percentage of days of poor control versus placebo by 22.5% (p < 0.001) and was also associated with significantly reduced use of rescue medication (p < 0.001). The overall rates of AEs were comparable between the groups (indacaterol 49.3%, placebo 46.8%), with the most common AEs being COPD worsening (indacaterol 8.5%, placebo 12.2%) and cough (indacaterol 6.2%, placebo 7.3%). One patient died in the placebo group. Serum potassium and blood glucose levels did not differ significantly between the two groups, and no patient had QTc >500 ms.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Indacaterol 150 <it>μ</it>g o.d. provided clinically significant and sustained bronchodilation, reduced rescue medication use, and had a safety and tolerability profile similar to placebo.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>NCT00624286</p

The effect of moderate alcohol consumption on adiponectin oligomers and muscle oxidative capacity: a human intervention study

Aims/hypothesis The aim of this study was to investigate whether moderate alcohol consumption increases plasma high molecular weight (HMW) adiponectin and/or muscle oxidative capacity. Materials and methods Eleven lean (BMI 18 - 25 kg/m(2)) and eight overweight ( BMI >= 27 kg/m(2)) men consumed 100 ml whisky (similar to 32 g alcohol) or water daily for 4 weeks in a randomised, controlled, crossover trial. After each treatment period, muscle biopsies and fasting blood samples were collected. Results Adiponectin concentrations increased ( p <0.001) by 12.5% after 4 weeks of moderate alcohol consumption. Moderate alcohol consumption tended to increase HMW adiponectin by 57% ( p= 0.07) and medium molecular weight adiponectin by 12.5% ( p= 0.07), but not low molecular weight (LMW) adiponectin. Skeletal muscle citrate synthase, cytochrome c oxidase and beta-3-hydroxyacyl coenzyme A dehydrogenase (beta-HAD) activity were not changed after moderate alcohol consumption, but an interaction between alcohol consumption and BMI was observed for cytochrome c oxidase ( p= 0.072) and citrate synthase ( p= 0.102) activity. Among lean men, moderate alcohol consumption tended to increase cytochrome c oxidase ( p= 0.08) and citrate synthase activity ( p= 0.12) by 23 and 26%, respectively, but not among overweight men. In particular, plasma HMW adiponectin correlated positively with activities of skeletal muscle citrate synthase ( r= 0.64, p= 0.009), cytochrome c oxidase ( p= 0.59, p= 0.009) and beta-HAD ( r= 0.46, p= 0.056), while such correlation was not present for LMW adiponectin. Whole-body insulin sensitivity and intramyocellular triacylglycerol content were not affected by moderate alcohol consumption. Conclusions/interpretation Moderate alcohol consumption increases adiponectin concentrations, and in particular HMW adiponectin. Concentrations of HMW adiponectin in particular were positively associated with skeletal muscle oxidative capacity

Cryogenic Optical Performance of a Light-weight Mirror Assembly for Future Space Astronomical Telescopes: Optical Test Results and Thermal Optical Model

A 40 cm diameter mirror assembly was interferometrically tested at room temperature down to 250 degrees Kelvin for thermal deformation. The 2.5 m radius of curvature spherical mirror assembly was constructed by low temperature fusing three abrasive waterjet core sections between two face sheets. The 93% lightweighted Corning ULE mirror assembly represents the current state of the art for future UV, optical, near IR space telescopes. During the multiple thermal test cycles, test results of interferometric test, thermal IR images of the front face were recorded in order to validate thermal optical model

The impact of foreign direct investment on the productivity of China’s automotive industry

• This study contributes to the existing literature by empirically investigating the effect of FDI inflows on the aggregate labour productivity of China's automotive industry. • A production function model is developed using a panel data set at sub-sector level. Two statistical models: pooled ordinary least squares model (POLS) and fixed effects model (FES) were used to estimate the influence of foreign direct investment on aggregate labour productivity in the industry