Time Series Analysis, Cointegration, and Applications

The two prize winners in Economics this year would describe themselves as "Econometricians," so I thought that I should start by explaining that term. One can begin with the ancient subject of Mathematics which is largely concerned with the discovery of relationships between deterministic variables using a rigorous argument. (A deterministic variable is one whose value is known with certainty.) However, by the middle of the last millennium it became clear that some objects were not deterministic, they had to be described with the use of probabilities, so that Mathematics grew a substantial sub-field known as "Statistics." This later became involved with the analysis of data and a number of methods have been developed for data having what may be called "standard properties."time series; cointegration

Avian lens spectrin: subunit composition compared with erythrocyte and brain spectrin

Chicken lens spectrin is composed predominantly of equimolar amounts of two polypeptides with solubility properties similar, but not identical, to erythrocyte spectrin. The larger polypeptide, Mr 240,000 (lens alpha- spectrin), co-migrates with erythrocyte and brain alpha-spectrin on one- and two-dimensional SDS polyacrylamide gels and cross-reacts with antibodies specific for chicken erythrocyte alpha-spectrin; the smaller polypeptide, Mr 235,000 (lens gamma-spectrin), co-migrates with brain gamma-spectrin and does not cross-react with either the alpha-spectrin antibodies specific for chicken erythrocyte beta-spectrin. Minor amounts of polypeptides antigenically related to erythrocyte beta- spectrin with a greater electrophoretic mobility than lens gamma- spectrin are also detected in lens. The equimolar ratio of lens alpha- and gamma-spectrin is invariantly maintained during the extraction of lens plasma membranes under different conditions, or after immunoprecipitation of whole extracts of lens with erythrocyte alpha- spectrin antibodies. Two-dimensional peptide mapping reveals that whereas alpha-spectrins from chicken erythrocytes, brain, and lens are highly homologous, the gamma-spectrins, although related, have some cell-type-specific peptides and are substantially different from erythrocyte beta-spectrin. Thus, the expression of cell-type-specific gamma- and beta-spectrins may be the basis for the assembly of a spectrin-plasma membrane complex whose molecular composition is tailored to the functional requirements of the particular cell-type

Modeling Amazon Deforestation for Policy Purposes

Brazil has long ago removed most of the perverse government incentives that stimulated massive deforestation in the Amazon in the 70s and 80s, but one highly controversial policy remains: Road building. While data is now abundantly available due to the constant satellite surveillance of the Amazon, the analytical methods typically used to analyze the impact of roads on natural vegetation cover are methodologically weak and not very helpful to guide public policy. This paper discusses the respective weaknesses of typical GIS analysis and typical municipality level regression analysis, and shows what would be needed to construct an ideal model of deforestation processes. It also presents an alternative approach that is much less demanding in terms of modeling and estimation and more useful for policy makers as well.Deforestation, Amazon, Brazil, econometric modeling

Comparing Data Quality and Cost from Three Modes of On-Board Transit Passenger Surveys

This report presents the findings from a research project investigating the relative data quality and administration costs for three different modes of surveying bus passengers that produce results generalizable to the full passenger population. The three modes, all of which used survey methods distributed or administered onboard the transit vehicle, were: self-complete paper surveys, self-complete online surveys, and interviewer-assisted tablet-based surveys. Results from this study indicate several implications for practitioners choosing a survey mode. First, and most importantly, the analysis reinforces the point that there is no single, best survey mode. The choice of mode must depend on an agency’s priorities for what questions most need to be answered, what population groups are most important to represent, and exactly how the agency chooses to define concepts like a “complete” survey or a “usable” address. Findings suggest several general recommendations for current survey practice: (1) online surveys administered via an invitation distributed on the transit vehicle are not a good option; (2) old-fashioned, low-tech paper survey may still be the best option for many bus passenger surveys; (3) changes in survey results that accompany changes in survey methods should be interpreted with caution; and (4) using a new survey method, especially one relying on more complex technologies, may create unexpected glitches

Student Veteran Success: A Grounded Theory Study

Student veterans in undergraduate post-secondary education face many challenges. Current research addresses these unique challenges and offers recommendations for further research, as well as strategies for college administrators and faculty seeking to assist student veterans. However, the research does not address the strategies student veterans use to succeed. The purpose of this grounded theory study is to start this conversation. The objective of this study is to present a theory that predicts and explains student veterans’ success, using grounded theory methodology to examine student veteran strategies to succeed in college. Thirteen student veterans from two different colleges participated in the study via semi-structured interviews and theoretical sampling. The data from the interviews and sampling sessions were coded using in-vivo and axial coding techniques until theoretical categories emerged. Study results showed that student veterans succeeded because they were adaptable and empathetic, and could prioritize their efforts based on goal setting, both on and off campus. Successful student veterans put more effort into their life outside of college, and tended to be internally motivated to succeed. Academic excellence and college degrees were secondary motivators, and fell behind broader-based life goals. The theory developed in this study offers guidance for future research on student veteran success. It also provides valuable insight that will allow post-secondary faculty, administration, and staff who work with student veterans in post-secondary education, to replicate this study’s strategies for success. Lastly, it shows that, to student veterans and their supporters, life after the military is about more than college

Uric Acid as a Potential Peripheral Biomarker for Disease Features in Huntington's Patients.

Oxidative stress has long been implicated in the pathophysiology and progression of Huntington's disease (HD). Uric acid (UA) is a naturally occurring antioxidant that is present in the brain and periphery. Growing evidence has implicated UA as a molecular biomarker for several neurodegenerative diseases, most notably Parkinson's disease (PD). In this study, we investigated UA levels in clinical samples from HD patients and normal controls (NCs) and assessed potential relationships between UA levels and disease and clinical data. UA levels were measured in plasma (n = 107) and saliva (n = 178) samples from premanifest (pre-HD) and manifest HD patients and control subjects. Gender effects of UA levels were observed in both biofluids, with male patients showing higher UA levels compared to female patients. Comparisons of UA levels across diagnostic groups, separated by gender, revealed that both plasma and salivary UA levels were significantly lower in female pre-HD and manifest HD patients compared to NCs. Salivary levels of UA were also significantly lower in male manifest HD patients versus controls, but not in plasma. Correlations of peripheral UA levels to clinical data also showed differences according to gender. In male HD patients, both plasma and salivary UA levels were significantly negatively correlated with total functional capacity (TFC), while positive correlations were observed with total motor score (TMS). Female HD patients showed a significant positive correlation between plasma UA levels and TMS, while salivary UA levels from female patients were significantly correlated to disease burden. Finally, in a separate cohort, we show that UA levels are decreased in postmortem prefrontal cortical samples (n = 20) from HD subjects compared to matched controls. These findings suggest that decreased levels of UA in the brains of HD patients can be reflected in peripheral fluids, with salivary measures of UA particularly offering significant promise as a potentially relevant, non-invasive biomarker of disease symptoms and burden. Our findings further highlight the impact of sexual dimorphism in HD pathophysiology

Feshbach Resonance Cooling of Trapped Atom Pairs

Spectroscopic studies of few-body systems at ultracold temperatures provide valuable information that often cannot be extracted in a hot environment. Considering a pair of atoms, we propose a cooling mechanism that makes use of a scattering Feshbach resonance. Application of a series of time-dependent magnetic field ramps results in the situation in which either zero, one, or two atoms remain trapped. If two atoms remain in the trap after the field ramps are completed, then they have been cooled. Application of the proposed cooling mechanism to optical traps or lattices is considered.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures; v.2: major conceptual change