Transiting exoplanets from the CoRoT space mission. XV. CoRoT-15b: a brown dwarf transiting companion

We report the discovery by the CoRoT space mission of a transiting brown dwarf orbiting a F7V star with an orbital period of 3.06 days. CoRoT-15b has a radius of 1.12 +0.30 -0.15 Rjup, a mass of 63.3 +- 4.1 Mjup, and is thus the second transiting companion lying in the theoretical mass domain of brown dwarfs. CoRoT-15b is either very young or inflated compared to standard evolution models, a situation similar to that of M-dwarfs stars orbiting close to solar-type stars. Spectroscopic constraints and an analysis of the lightcurve favors a spin period between 2.9 and 3.1 days for the central star, compatible with a double-synchronisation of the system.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures, accepted in A&

Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges

Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this paper, we review recent efforts to include heterogeneities and interactions in models of decision. We argue that the Random Field Ising model (RFIM) indeed provides a unifying framework to account for many collective socio-economic phenomena that lead to sudden ruptures and crises. We discuss different models that can capture potentially destabilising self-referential feedback loops, induced either by herding, i.e. reference to peers, or trending, i.e. reference to the past, and account for some of the phenomenology missing in the standard models. We discuss some empirically testable predictions of these models, for example robust signatures of RFIM-like herding effects, or the logarithmic decay of spatial correlations of voting patterns. One of the most striking result, inspired by statistical physics methods, is that Adam Smith's invisible hand can badly fail at solving simple coordination problems. We also insist on the issue of time-scales, that can be extremely long in some cases, and prevent socially optimal equilibria to be reached. As a theoretical challenge, the study of so-called "detailed-balance" violating decision rules is needed to decide whether conclusions based on current models (that all assume detailed-balance) are indeed robust and generic.Comment: Review paper accepted for a special issue of J Stat Phys; several minor improvements along reviewers' comment

A fast Monte Carlo algorithm for site or bond percolation

We describe in detail a new and highly efficient algorithm for studying site or bond percolation on any lattice. The algorithm can measure an observable quantity in a percolation system for all values of the site or bond occupation probability from zero to one in an amount of time which scales linearly with the size of the system. We demonstrate our algorithm by using it to investigate a number of issues in percolation theory, including the position of the percolation transition for site percolation on the square lattice, the stretched exponential behavior of spanning probabilities away from the critical point, and the size of the giant component for site percolation on random graphs.Comment: 17 pages, 13 figures. Corrections and some additional material in this version. Accompanying material can be found on the web at http://www.santafe.edu/~mark/percolation

Informational Efficiency in Futures Markets for Crude Oil

This paper develops a methodology to test whether recent developments on world oil markets are in line with the hypothesis of efficient markets. We treat the joint hypothesis problem as stated by Fama (1970), Fama (1991), that market efficiency can only be assessed in conjunction with a price model of market equilibrium. Data on spot and futures prices for Brent crude oil in the period 2002-2008 are used in combination with a multi factor model to investigate whether futures prices are efficient forecasts of future spot prices. The hypothesis of market efficiency is assessed by comparing the observed developments of crude oil spot prices to the ex-ante expected distributions of spot prices using the Rosenblatt transform. For the Brent crude oil futures market, the results are in line with the hypothesis of market efficiency in the short-term but during our sample period the hypothesis is refuted when forecast horizons of one year are considered. Our findings suggest that it can lead to rather wrong investment decisions when relying on longer-term crude oil futures prices and the information contained therein

JAK2 V617F Constitutive Activation Requires JH2 Residue F595: A Pseudokinase Domain Target for Specific Inhibitors

The JAK2 V617F mutation present in over 95% of Polycythemia Vera patients and in 50% of Essential Thrombocythemia and Primary Myelofibrosis patients renders the kinase constitutively active. In the absence of a three-dimensional structure for the full-length protein, the mechanism of activation of JAK2 V617F has remained elusive. In this study, we used functional mutagenesis to investigate the involvement of the JH2 αC helix in the constitutive activation of JAK2 V617F. We show that residue F595, located in the middle of the αC helix of JH2, is indispensable for the constitutive activity of JAK2 V617F. Mutation of F595 to Ala, Lys, Val or Ile significantly decreases the constitutive activity of JAK2 V617F, but F595W and F595Y are able to restore it, implying an aromaticity requirement at position 595. Substitution of F595 to Ala was also able to decrease the constitutive activity of two other JAK2 mutants, T875N and R683G, as well as JAK2 K539L, albeit to a lower extent. In contrast, the F595 mutants are activated by erythropoietin-bound EpoR. We also explored the relationship between the dimeric conformation of EpoR and several JAK2 mutants. Since residue F595 is crucial to the constitutive activation of JAK2 V617F but not to initiation of JAK2 activation by cytokines, we suggest that small molecules that target the region around this residue might specifically block oncogenic JAK2 and spare JAK2 wild-type

Predicting Inactive Conformations of Protein Kinases Using Active Structures: Conformational Selection of Type-II Inhibitors

Protein kinases have been found to possess two characteristic conformations in their activation-loops: the active DFG-in conformation and the inactive DFG-out conformation. Recently, it has been very interesting to develop type-II inhibitors which target the DFG-out conformation and are more specific than the type-I inhibitors binding to the active DFG-in conformation. However, solving crystal structures of kinases with the DFG-out conformation remains a challenge, and this seriously hampers the application of the structure-based approaches in development of novel type-II inhibitors. To overcome this limitation, here we present a computational approach for predicting the DFG-out inactive conformation using the DFG-in active structures, and develop related conformational selection protocols for the uses of the predicted DFG-out models in the binding pose prediction and virtual screening of type-II ligands. With the DFG-out models, we predicted the binding poses for known type-II inhibitors, and the results were found in good agreement with the X-ray crystal structures. We also tested the abilities of the DFG-out models to recognize their specific type-II inhibitors by screening a database of small molecules. The AUC (area under curve) results indicated that the predicted DFG-out models were selective toward their specific type-II inhibitors. Therefore, the computational approach and protocols presented in this study are very promising for the structure-based design and screening of novel type-II kinase inhibitors

Term structure information and bond strategies

We examine term structure theories by using a novel approach. We form bond investment strategies based on different theories of the term structure in order to determine which strategy performs best. When using a manipulation-proof performance measure, we find that consistent with prior literature, an active strategy that is based on time varying term premiums can indeed form the basis of a successful bond strategy that outperforms an unbiased expectation inspired passive bond buy and hold strategy. This is true, however, for an earlier time period when the literature first made this claim. In a later time period, we find that the passive buy and hold strategy is significantly superior to all active strategies. This result is confirmed by statistical tests and it suggests that once it became known that an active strategy based on time varying term premiums could outperform a passive buy and hold strategy, the markets adjusted and arbitraged away this opportunity. Overall, it appears that the unbiased expectation hypothesis is the most likely explanation of the behaviour of the term structure during more recent times. This is because economically and statistically significant superior performance cannot be achieved if one uses information from the forward curve or the term structure as a guide to adjusting bond portfolios in response to changes in the term premium.This work was supported by Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha [grant number PEII11-0031-6939]; Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación [grant number ECO2011-28134] and partially supported by Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER) funds.