Bayesian prediction of disability insurance frequencies using economic indicators

We use economic indicators to improve the prediction of the number of incurred but not recorded disability insurance claims, assuming that there is a link between the number of claims and the chosen economic indicators. We propose a Bayesian model where we model the claims development in three directions: along incurred periods, recording lag periods and calendar periods. A stochastic model of the economic indicators is incorporated into the calendar period development direction. Thus we allow for the impact of the economic environment on the number of claims. Applying the proposed model to data, we illustrate how the inclusion of economic indicators affects the prediction of the number of incurred but not recorded disability claim

Selection and parallel trends

One of the perceived advantages of difference-in-differences (DiD) methods is that they do not explicitly restrict how units select into treatment. However, when justifying DiD, researchers often argue that the treatment is "quasi-randomly" assigned. We investigate what selection mechanisms are compatible with the parallel trends assumptions underlying DiD. We derive necessary conditions for parallel trends that clarify whether and how selection can depend on time-invariant and time-varying unobservables. Motivated by these necessary conditions, we suggest a menu of interpretable sufficient conditions for parallel trends, thereby providing the formal underpinnings for justifying DiD based on contextual information about selection into treatment. We provide results for both separable and nonseparable outcome models and show that this distinction has implications for the use of covariates in DiD analyses

Monitoring invasive alien macroinvertebrate species with environmental DNA

Regular monitoring of ecosystems can be used for the early detection of invasive alien species (IAS), and provide information for management and preventing them from becoming established or advancing into new areas. Current methods of monitoring freshwater systems for IAS can be both financially costly and time-consuming, with routine monitoring often carried out at low intensity and at only a small number of sites. In this study, we evaluate how environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding for monitoring freshwater macroinvertebrate IAS compares to traditional kick-net sampling as part of a national (Switzerland) and a catchment monitoring programme. Kick-net sampling was more fruitful for the detection of several well-known target macroinvertebrate IAS. However, eDNA samples proved complementary for the detection of IAS that belong to species often being unnoticed by traditional sampling due to methodological or taxonomic reasons. Specifically, the invasive jellyfish Craspedacusta sowerbii, hardly detectable using classic kick-net sampling, was found to be widespread in both the national and the catchment-scale monitoring with the eDNA method only. Our study shows that IAS detection using eDNA is easily implemented in both national- and catchment-scale monitoring campaigns. However, successful detection of target IAS is still highly dependent on primer choice, species' biology, and availability of adequate markers. Specifically, multiple markers should be considered for detecting IAS from several different taxonomic groups, such as those under the ‘freshwater macroinvertebrate’ umbrella term. While eDNA is still developing in terms of these fundamental methodological requirements, surveillance for both target and non-target IAS using eDNA is likely to increase efficiency in early detection of IAS in freshwater systems

The structure of causal sets

More often than not, recently popular structuralist interpretations of physical theories leave the central concept of a structure insufficiently precisified. The incipient causal sets approach to quantum gravity offers a paradigmatic case of a physical theory predestined to be interpreted in structuralist terms. It is shown how employing structuralism lends itself to a natural interpretation of the physical meaning of causal sets theory. Conversely, the conceptually exceptionally clear case of causal sets is used as a foil to illustrate how a mathematically informed rigorous conceptualization of structure serves to identify structures in physical theories. Furthermore, a number of technical issues infesting structuralist interpretations of physical theories such as difficulties with grounding the identity of the places of highly symmetrical physical structures in their relational profile and what may resolve these difficulties can be vividly illustrated with causal sets.Comment: 19 pages, 4 figure

Generative Social Choice

Traditionally, social choice theory has only been applicable to choices among a few predetermined alternatives but not to more complex decisions such as collectively selecting a textual statement. We introduce generative social choice, a framework that combines the mathematical rigor of social choice theory with large language models' capability to generate text and extrapolate preferences. This framework divides the design of AI-augmented democratic processes into two components: first, proving that the process satisfies rigorous representation guarantees when given access to oracle queries; second, empirically validating that these queries can be approximately implemented using a large language model. We illustrate this framework by applying it to the problem of generating a slate of statements that is representative of opinions expressed as free-form text, for instance in an online deliberative process

Impact of Intraoperative Fluid Balance and Norepinephrine on Postoperative Acute Kidney Injury after Cystectomy and Urinary Diversion over Two Decades: A Retrospective Observational Cohort Study.

The use of norepinephrine and the restriction of intraoperative hydration have gained increasing acceptance over the last few decades. Recently, there have been concerns regarding the impact of this approach on renal function. The objective of this study was to examine the influence of norepinephrine, intraoperative fluid administration and their interaction on acute kidney injury (AKI) after cystectomy. In our cohort of 1488 consecutive patients scheduled for cystectomies and urinary diversions, the overall incidence of AKI was 21.6% (95%-CI: 19.6% to 23.8%) and increased by an average of 0.6% (95%-CI: 0.1% to 1.1%, p = 0.025) per year since 2000. The fluid and vasopressor regimes were characterized by an annual decrease in fluid balance (-0.24 mL·kg-1·h-1, 95%-CI: -0.26 to -0.22, p < 0.001) and an annual increase in the amount of norepinephrine of 0.002 µg·kg-1·min-1 (95%-CI: 0.0016 to 0.0024, p < 0.001). The interaction between the fluid balance and norepinephrine levels resulted in a U-shaped association with the risk of AKI; however, the magnitude and shape depended on the reference categories of confounders (age and BMI). We conclude that decreased intraoperative fluid balance combined with increased norepinephrine administration was associated with an increased risk of AKI. However, other potential drivers of the observed increase in AKI incidence need to be further investigated in the future

Sirolimus ameliorates the enhanced expression of metalloproteinases in a rat model of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease

Background. Remodelling of matrix and tubular basement membranes (TBM) is a characteristic of polycystic kidney disease. We hypothesized that matrix and TBM degradation by metalloproteinases (MMPs) could promote cyst formation. We therefore investigated the renal expression of MMPs in the Han:SPRD rat model of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) and examined the effect of sirolimus treatment on MMPs. Methods. 5-week-old male heterozygous (Cy/+) and wild-type normal (+/+) rats were treated with sirolimus (2 mg/kg/day) through drinking water for 3 months. Results. The mRNA and protein levels of MMP-2 and MMP-14 were markedly increased in the kidneys of heterozygous Cy/+ animals compared to wild-type +/+ as shown by RT-PCR and Western blot analyses for MMP-2 and MMP-14, and by zymography for MMP-2. Strong MMP-2 expression was detected by immunoperoxidase staining in cystic epithelial cells that also displayed an altered, thickened TBM. Tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases-2 (TIMP-2) expression was not changed in Cy/+ kidneys. Sirolimus treatment leads to decreased protein expression of MMP-2 and MMP-14 in Cy/+, whereas MMP-2 and MMP-14 mRNA levels and TIMP-2 protein levels were not affected by sirolimus. Conclusion. In summary, in kidneys of the Han:SPRD rat model of ADPKD, there is a marked upregulation of MMP-2 and MMP-14. Sirolimus treatment was associated with a marked improvement of MMP-2 and MMP-14 overexpression, and this correlated also with less matrix and TBM alterations and milder cystic diseas

Variations in the in vivo P-31 MR spectra of the developing human brain during postnatal life. Work in progress

With use of a modified surface coil technique, the authors recorded phosphorus-31 magnetic resonance (MR) spectra of the brains of 40 neonates and infants (48 examinations) ranging from 33 weeks postconceptional age to 6 years of age. Signals of phosphorus metabolites were collected in the frontotemporal region of the brain, and various P-31 MR spectral variables were compared at different times during postnatal life. The ratio of the phosphomonoester signal to the phosphodiester signal, which is related to phospholipid synthesis, decreases within the first 6 months of life; during the same time period, the ratio of the phosphocreatine (PCr) signal to the beta-adenosine triphosphate (ATP) signal increases. In addition, a difference was observed between the areas under the alpha- and beta-ATP peaks. This difference increases with age and correlates with the PCr/beta-ATP signal ratio. The variation of the alpha-ATP peak with age might be explained by overlap of the signals of nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD) and alpha-ATP