Foraminiferal proliferations in the Alborz Basin (northern Iran): global responses to Early Carboniferous glaciations

© 2017 Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung and Springer-Verlag Berlin HeidelbergThe Tournaisian interval of the Mobarak Formation in the Alborz Basin (Iran) preserves a specific bed with Earlandiidae and three foraminiferal zones that are restricted to specific intervals within the late Tournaisian and correlate with northern Eurasian biostratigraphic units. The bed with Earlandiidae dates to the early Tournaisian and corresponds with the lower Tournaisian and lower part of the upper Tournaisian of the Russian Stratigraphic Scale. The Granuliferella latispiralis–Latiendothyranopsis zone dates back to the earliest Ivorian (MFZ4?–MFZ5) and correlates with the G. latispiralis and Spinoendothyra costifera zones of the Urals. The Eotextularia diversa zone is of earliest late Ivorian age (MFZ6) and corresponds to the lower part of the E. diversa zone of the Russian Stratigraphic Scale. The Endospiroplectammina venusta–Eoparastaffella ex gr. rotunda zone is of latest Ivorian (MFZ7–MFZ8) age and correlates with the upper part of the E. diversa zone and the E. rotunda zone of the Russian Stratigraphic Scale. The entire early Tournaisian (Hastarian) portion is devoid of recognisable foraminiferal material, which is likely linked to a faunal shift of subtropical and temperate taxa to tropical latitudes in response to the glaciations at the Devonian–Carboniferous boundary. The establishment of the G. latispiralis–Latiendothyranopsis zone coincides with the first mondial Tournaisian foraminiferal radiation. The second and third episodes of foraminiferal diversification (E. diversa and E. venusta–Eoparastaffella ex gr. rotunda) are congruent with major foraminiferal shifts from Tethyan realms to higher latitudes in response to thermal periods. The occurrence of specific foraminiferal taxa in Alborz is strongly linked to transgressions and migrations of North Palaeotethyan biotic elements. The described Tournaisian cyclic patterns in the Alborz Basin share significant similarities with those in the North American, western European and Siberian realms, indicating a link with large-scale palaeoclimatic patterns. This cyclic system correlates directly with the pacing of global eustatic sea-level fluctuations caused by climate oscillations and follows the fourth-order ocean-level fluctuations as described from other, independent proxies

The determinants of election to the United Nations Security Council

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11127-013-0096-4.The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is the foremost international body responsible for the maintenance of international peace and security. Members vote on issues of global importance and consequently receive perks—election to the UNSC predicts, for instance, World Bank and IMF loans. But who gets elected to the UNSC? Addressing this question empirically is not straightforward as it requires a model that allows for discrete choices at the regional and international levels; the former nominates candidates while the latter ratifies them. Using an original multiple discrete choice model to analyze a dataset of 180 elections from 1970 to 2005, we find that UNSC election appears to derive from a compromise between the demands of populous countries to win election more frequently and a norm of giving each country its turn. We also find evidence that richer countries from the developing world win election more often, while involvement in warfare lowers election probability. By contrast, development aid does not predict election

Sedimentologic and paleoclimatic reconstructions of carbonate factory evolution in the Alborz Basin (northern Iran) indicate a global response to Early Carboniferous (Tournaisian) glaciations

© 2016 Elsevier B.V.The Lower Carboniferous Mobarak Formation records the development of a storm-sensitive pervasive carbonate factory on the southern Paleo-Tethyan passive margin following the opening of the Paleo-Tethys Ocean into the Alborz Basin along the northern margin of Gondwana. Its depositional facies encompass inner ramp peritidal environments, peloidal to crinoidal shoals, storm to fair-weather influenced mid-ramps, proximal to distal shell beds and low energy outer ramps. Sedimentological analyses and foraminiferal biostratigraphy reveal four events affecting carbonate platform evolution in the Alborz Basin during the Lower Carboniferous: (1) A transgression following global temperature rise in the Early Tournaisian (middle Hastarian) caused the formation of thick-bedded argillaceous limestones. This interval correlates with Early Tournaisian nodular to argillaceous limestones in the Moravia Basin (Lisen Formation, Czech Republic), the Dinant Basin (Pont d'Arcole Formation, Belgium), and at the Rhenish Slate Mountains (Lower Alum shale, Germany). (2) Late Hastarian–early Ivorian glaciations previously identified in Southern Gondwana but had not yet recognized in Northern Gondwana were recorded through a sequence boundary. (3) During the Late Tournaisian–Early Visean?, a differential block faulting regime along the basin's margin caused uplift of the westernmost parts of the Alborz Basin and resulted in subsidence in the eastern part of the central basin. This tectonically controlled shift in depositional regime caused vast sub-aerial exposure and brecciation preserved in the top of the Mobarak Formation in the western portion of the Central Alborz Basin. (4) Tectonic activity coinciding with a progressive, multiphase sea level drop caused indirectly by the Viséan and Serpukhovian glaciations phases ultimately led to the stagnation of the carbonate factory. Paleothermometry proxies, the presence of foraminiferal taxa with a northern Paleo-Tethyan affinity and evidence for arid conditions in the terrestrial hinterland place the Alborz Basin at lower latitudes than the approximately 45ο–50ο southern paleolatitude reported thus far

Public preferences for vaccination programmes during pandemics caused by pathogens transmitted through respiratory droplets - a discrete choice experiment in four European countries, 2013

This study aims to quantify and compare preferences of citizens from different European countries for vaccination programme characteristics during pandemics, caused by pathogens which are transmitted through respiratory droplets. Internet panel members, nationally representative based on age, sex, educational level and region, of four European Union Member States (Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and Sweden, n = 2,068) completed an online discrete choice experiment. These countries, from different geographical areas of Europe, were chosen because of the availability of high-quality Internet panels and because of the cooperation between members of the project entitled Effective Communication in Outbreak Management: development of an evidence-based tool for Europe (ECOM). Data were analysed using panel latent class regression models. In the case of a severe pandemic scenario, vaccine effectiveness was the most important characteristic determining vaccination preference in all countries, followed by the body that advises on vaccination. In Sweden, the advice of family and/or friends and the advice of physicians strongly affected vaccine preferences, in contrast to Poland and Spain, where the advice of (international) health authorities was more decisive. Irrespective of pandemic scenario or vaccination programme characteristics, the predicted vaccination uptakes were lowest in Sweden, and highest in Poland. To increase vaccination uptake during future pandemics, the responsible authorities should align with other important stakeholders in the country and communicate in a coordinated manner

Canalization of the evolutionary trajectory of the human influenza virus

Since its emergence in 1968, influenza A (H3N2) has evolved extensively in genotype and antigenic phenotype. Antigenic evolution occurs in the context of a two-dimensional 'antigenic map', while genetic evolution shows a characteristic ladder-like genealogical tree. Here, we use a large-scale individual-based model to show that evolution in a Euclidean antigenic space provides a remarkable correspondence between model behavior and the epidemiological, antigenic, genealogical and geographic patterns observed in influenza virus. We find that evolution away from existing human immunity results in rapid population turnover in the influenza virus and that this population turnover occurs primarily along a single antigenic axis. Thus, selective dynamics induce a canalized evolutionary trajectory, in which the evolutionary fate of the influenza population is surprisingly repeatable and hence, in theory, predictable.Comment: 29 pages, 5 figures, 10 supporting figure

Judicial disagreement need not be political: dissent on the Estonian Supreme Court

I investigate the non-unanimous decisions of judges on the Estonian Supreme Court. I argue that since judges on the court enjoy high de jure independence, dissent frequently, and are integrated in the normal judicial hierarchy, the Estonian Supreme Court is a crucial case for the presumption that judicial disagreement reveals policy preferences. I analyse dissenting opinions using an ideal point response model. Examining the characteristics of cases which discriminated with respect to the recovered dimension, I show that this dimension cannot be interpreted as a meaningful policy dimension, but instead reflects disagreement about the proper scope of constitutional redress

The impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) on HIV epidemics in Africa and India: A simulation study

Background: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a promising new HIV prevention method, especially for women. An urgent demand for implementation of PrEP is expected at the moment efficacy has been demonstrated in clinical trials. We explored the long-term impact of PrEP on HIV transmission in different HIV epidemics. Methodology/Principal Findings: We used a mathematical model that distinguishes the general population, sex workers and their clients. PrEP scenarios varying in effectiveness, coverage and target group were modeled in the epidemiological settings of Botswana, Nyanza Province in Kenya, and Southern India. We also studied the effect of condom addition or condom substitution during PrEP use. Main outcome was number of HIV infections averted over ten years of PrEP use. PrEP strategies with high effectiveness and high coverage can have a substantial impact in African settings. In Southern India, by contrast, the number of averted HIV infections in different PrEP scenarios would be much lower. The impact of PrEP may be strongly diminished or even reversed by behavioral disinhibition, especially in scenarios with low coverage and low effectiveness. However, additional condom use during low coverage and low effective PrEP doubled the amount of averted HIV infections. Conclusions/Significance: The public health impact of PrEP can be substantial. However, this impact may be diminished, or even reversed, by changes in risk behavior. Implementation of PrEP strategies should therefore come on top of current condom campaigns, not as a substitution

Predictors of linkage to care following community-based HIV counseling and testing in rural Kenya

Despite innovations in HIV counseling and testing (HCT), important gaps remain in understanding linkage to care. We followed a cohort diagnosed with HIV through a community-based HCT campaign that trained persons living with HIV/AIDS (PLHA) as navigators. Individual, interpersonal, and institutional predictors of linkage were assessed using survival analysis of self-reported time to enrollment. Of 483 persons consenting to follow-up, 305 (63.2%) enrolled in HIV care within 3 months. Proportions linking to care were similar across sexes, barring a sub-sample of men aged 18–25 years who were highly unlikely to enroll. Men were more likely to enroll if they had disclosed to their spouse, and women if they had disclosed to family. Women who anticipated violence or relationship breakup were less likely to link to care. Enrolment rates were significantly higher among participants receiving a PLHA visit, suggesting that a navigator approach may improve linkage from community-based HCT campaigns.Vestergaard Frandse