Hybrid Equation/Agent-Based Model of Ischemia-Induced Hyperemia and Pressure Ulcer Formation Predicts Greater Propensity to Ulcerate in Subjects with Spinal Cord Injury

Pressure ulcers are costly and life-threatening complications for people with spinal cord injury (SCI). People with SCI also exhibit differential blood flow properties in non-ulcerated skin. We hypothesized that a computer simulation of the pressure ulcer formation process, informed by data regarding skin blood flow and reactive hyperemia in response to pressure, could provide insights into the pathogenesis and effective treatment of post-SCI pressure ulcers. Agent-Based Models (ABM) are useful in settings such as pressure ulcers, in which spatial realism is important. Ordinary Differential Equation-based (ODE) models are useful when modeling physiological phenomena such as reactive hyperemia. Accordingly, we constructed a hybrid model that combines ODEs related to blood flow along with an ABM of skin injury, inflammation, and ulcer formation. The relationship between pressure and the course of ulcer formation, as well as several other important characteristic patterns of pressure ulcer formation, was demonstrated in this model. The ODE portion of this model was calibrated to data related to blood flow following experimental pressure responses in non-injured human subjects or to data from people with SCI. This model predicted a higher propensity to form ulcers in response to pressure in people with SCI vs. non-injured control subjects, and thus may serve as novel diagnostic platform for post-SCI ulcer formation. © 2013 Solovyev et al

Combined In Silico, In Vivo, and In Vitro Studies Shed Insights into the Acute Inflammatory Response in Middle-Aged Mice

We combined in silico, in vivo, and in vitro studies to gain insights into age-dependent changes in acute inflammation in response to bacterial endotoxin (LPS). Time-course cytokine, chemokine, and NO2-/NO3- data from "middle-aged" (6-8 months old) C57BL/6 mice were used to re-parameterize a mechanistic mathematical model of acute inflammation originally calibrated for "young" (2-3 months old) mice. These studies suggested that macrophages from middle-aged mice are more susceptible to cell death, as well as producing higher levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines, vs. macrophages from young mice. In support of the in silico-derived hypotheses, resident peritoneal cells from endotoxemic middle-aged mice exhibited reduced viability and produced elevated levels of TNF-α, IL-6, IL-10, and KC/CXCL1 as compared to cells from young mice. Our studies demonstrate the utility of a combined in silico, in vivo, and in vitro approach to the study of acute inflammation in shock states, and suggest hypotheses with regard to the changes in the cytokine milieu that accompany aging. © 2013 Namas et al

A multiscale agent-based in silico model of liver fibrosis progression

Chronic hepatic inflammation involves a complex interplay of inflammatory and mechanical influences, ultimately manifesting in a characteristic histopathology of liver fibrosis. We created an agent-based model (ABM) of liver tissue in order to computationally examine the consequence of liver inflammation. Our liver fibrosis ABM (LFABM) is comprised of literature-derived rules describing molecular and histopathological aspects of inflammation and fibrosis in a section of chemically injured liver. Hepatocytes are modeled as agents within hexagonal lobules. Injury triggers an inflammatory reaction, which leads to activation of local Kupffer cells and recruitment of monocytes from circulation. Portal fibroblasts and hepatic stellate cells are activated locally by the products of inflammation. The various agents in the simulation are regulated by above-threshold concentrations of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines and damage-associated molecular pattern molecules. The simulation progresses from chronic inflammation to collagen deposition, exhibiting periportal fibrosis followed by bridging fibrosis, and culminating in disruption of the regular lobular structure. The ABM exhibited key histopathological features observed in liver sections from rats treated with carbon tetrachloride (CCl4). An in silico "tension test" for the hepatic lobules predicted an overall increase in tissue stiffness, in line with clinical elastography literature and published studies in CCl4-treated rats. Therapy simulations suggested differential anti-fibrotic effects of neutralizing tumor necrosis factor alpha vs. enhancing M2 Kupffer cells. We conclude that a computational model of liver inflammation on a structural skeleton of physical forces can recapitulate key histopathological and macroscopic properties of CCl4-injured liver. This multiscale approach linking molecular and chemomechanical stimuli enables a model that could be used to gain translationally relevant insights into liver fibrosis

The Acute Inflammatory Response in Trauma / Hemorrhage and Traumatic Brain Injury: Current State and Emerging Prospects

Traumatic injury/hemorrhagic shock (T/HS) elicits an acute inflammatory response that may result in death. Inflammation describes a coordinated series of molecular, cellular, tissue, organ, and systemic responses that drive the pathology of various diseases including T/HS and traumatic brain injury (TBI). Inflammation is a finely tuned, dynamic, highly-regulated process that is not inherently detrimental, but rather required for immune surveillance, optimal post-injury tissue repair, and regeneration. The inflammatory response is driven by cytokines and chemokines and is partially propagated by damaged tissue-derived products (Damage-associated Molecular Patterns; DAMP's). DAMPs perpetuate inflammation through the release of pro-inflammatory cytokines, but may also inhibit anti-inflammatory cytokines. Various animal models of T/HS in mice, rats, pigs, dogs, and non-human primates have been utilized in an attempt to move from bench to bedside. Novel approaches, including those from the field of systems biology, may yield therapeutic breakthroughs in T/HS and TBI in the near future

Automated parameter estimation for biological models using Bayesian statistical model checking

Background: Probabilistic models have gained widespread acceptance in the systems biology community as a useful way to represent complex biological systems. Such models are developed using existing knowledge of the structure and dynamics of the system, experimental observations, and inferences drawn from statistical analysis of empirical data. A key bottleneck in building such models is that some system variables cannot be measured experimentally. These variables are incorporated into the model as numerical parameters. Determining values of these parameters that justify existing experiments and provide reliable predictions when model simulations are performed is a key research problem. Domain experts usually estimate the values of these parameters by fitting the model to experimental data. Model fitting is usually expressed as an optimization problem that requires minimizing a cost-function which measures some notion of distance between the model and the data. This optimization problem is often solved by combining local and global search methods that tend to perform well for the specific application domain. When some prior information about parameters is available, methods such as Bayesian inference are commonly used for parameter learning. Choosing the appropriate parameter search technique requires detailed domain knowledge and insight into the underlying system. Results: Using an agent-based model of the dynamics of acute inflammation, we demonstrate a novel parameter estimation algorithm by discovering the amount and schedule of doses of bacterial lipopolysaccharide that guarantee a set of observed clinical outcomes with high probability. We synthesized values of twenty-eight unknown parameters such that the parameterized model instantiated with these parameter values satisfies four specifications describing the dynamic behavior of the model. Conclusions: We have developed a new algorithmic technique for discovering parameters in complex stochastic models of biological systems given behavioral specifications written in a formal mathematical logic. Our algorithm uses Bayesian model checking, sequential hypothesis testing, and stochastic optimization to automatically synthesize parameters of probabilistic biological models

A Systems Model for Immune Cell Interactions Unravels the Mechanism of Inflammation in Human Skin

Inflammation is characterized by altered cytokine levels produced by cell populations in a highly interdependent manner. To elucidate the mechanism of an inflammatory reaction, we have developed a mathematical model for immune cell interactions via the specific, dose-dependent cytokine production rates of cell populations. The model describes the criteria required for normal and pathological immune system responses and suggests that alterations in the cytokine production rates can lead to various stable levels which manifest themselves in different disease phenotypes. The model predicts that pairs of interacting immune cell populations can maintain homeostatic and elevated extracellular cytokine concentration levels, enabling them to operate as an immune system switch. The concept described here is developed in the context of psoriasis, an immune-mediated disease, but it can also offer mechanistic insights into other inflammatory pathologies as it explains how interactions between immune cell populations can lead to disease phenotypes

Analysis of serum inflammatory mediators identifies unique dynamic networks associated with death and spontaneous survival in pediatric acute liver failure

Background: Tools to predict death or spontaneous survival are necessary to inform liver transplantation (LTx) decisions in pediatric acute liver failure (PALF), but such tools are not available. Recent data suggest that immune/inflammatory dysregulation occurs in the setting of acute liver failure. We hypothesized that specific, dynamic, and measurable patterns of immune/inflammatory dysregulation will correlate with outcomes in PALF. Methods: We assayed 26 inflammatory mediators on stored serum samples obtained from a convenience sample of 49 children in the PALF study group (PALFSG) collected within 7 days after enrollment. Outcomes were assessed within 21 days of enrollment consisting of spontaneous survivors, non-survivors, and LTx recipients. Data were subjected to statistical analysis, patient-specific Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) inference. Findings: Raw inflammatory mediator levels assessed over time did not distinguish among PALF outcomes. However, DBN analysis did reveal distinct interferon-gamma-related networks that distinguished spontaneous survivors from those who died. The network identified in LTx patients pre-transplant was more like that seen in spontaneous survivors than in those who died, a finding supported by PCA. Interpretation: The application of DBN analysis of inflammatory mediators in this small patient sample appears to differentiate survivors from non-survivors in PALF. Patterns associated with LTx pre-transplant were more like those seen in spontaneous survivors than in those who died. DBN-based analyses might lead to a better prediction of outcome in PALF, and could also have more general utility in other complex diseases with an inflammatory etiology. Copyright: © 2013 Azhar et al

Agent-Based Modeling of Endotoxin-Induced Acute Inflammatory Response in Human Blood Leukocytes

Inflammation is a highly complex biological response evoked by many stimuli. A persistent challenge in modeling this dynamic process has been the (nonlinear) nature of the response that precludes the single-variable assumption. Systems-based approaches offer a promising possibility for understanding inflammation in its homeostatic context. In order to study the underlying complexity of the acute inflammatory response, an agent-based framework is developed that models the emerging host response as the outcome of orchestrated interactions associated with intricate signaling cascades and intercellular immune system interactions.An agent-based modeling (ABM) framework is proposed to study the nonlinear dynamics of acute human inflammation. The model is implemented using NetLogo software. Interacting agents involve either inflammation-specific molecules or cells essential for the propagation of the inflammatory reaction across the system. Spatial orientation of molecule interactions involved in signaling cascades coupled with the cellular heterogeneity are further taken into account. The proposed in silico model is evaluated through its ability to successfully reproduce a self-limited inflammatory response as well as a series of scenarios indicative of the nonlinear dynamics of the response. Such scenarios involve either a persistent (non)infectious response or innate immune tolerance and potentiation effects followed by perturbations in intracellular signaling molecules and cascades.The ABM framework developed in this study provides insight on the stochastic interactions of the mediators involved in the propagation of endotoxin signaling at the cellular response level. The simulation results are in accordance with our prior research effort associated with the development of deterministic human inflammation models that include transcriptional dynamics, signaling, and physiological components. The hypothetical scenarios explored in this study would potentially improve our understanding of how manipulating the behavior of the molecular species could manifest into emergent behavior of the overall system

A Patient-Specific in silico Model of Inflammation and Healing Tested in Acute Vocal Fold Injury

The development of personalized medicine is a primary objective of the medical community and increasingly also of funding and registration agencies. Modeling is generally perceived as a key enabling tool to target this goal. Agent-Based Models (ABMs) have previously been used to simulate inflammation at various scales up to the whole-organism level. We extended this approach to the case of a novel, patient-specific ABM that we generated for vocal fold inflammation, with the ultimate goal of identifying individually optimized treatments. ABM simulations reproduced trajectories of inflammatory mediators in laryngeal secretions of individuals subjected to experimental phonotrauma up to 4 hrs post-injury, and predicted the levels of inflammatory mediators 24 hrs post-injury. Subject-specific simulations also predicted different outcomes from behavioral treatment regimens to which subjects had not been exposed. We propose that this translational application of computational modeling could be used to design patient-specific therapies for the larynx, and will serve as a paradigm for future extension to other clinical domains