Desemprego sob restrição de demanda agregada em Keynes: o que dizer do longo prazo?

J.M.Keynes em sua notória “Teoria Geral” trabalha dentro de um horizonte temporal / analítico de “curto prazo”, na medida em que o estoque de capital da economia é mantido constante. Alternativamente, dentro de um horizonte no qual o estoque de capital pode variar, este ensaio repensa o quadro de “armadilha da liquidez”, observando suas consequências sobre o nível de emprego, bem como sobre o nível de utilização da capacidade produtiva da economia. Pautando-se na lógica interna da “Teoria Geral”, conclui-se que a restrição keynesiana de demanda será mantida no “longo prazo”, porém através da redução do estoque de capital e não através do desemprego, recuperando assim a possibilidade de pleno-emprego, mesmo num cenário de incerteza keynesiana

Clonal chromosomal mosaicism and loss of chromosome Y in elderly men increase vulnerability for SARS-CoV-2

The pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19) had an estimated overall case fatality ratio of 1.38% (pre-vaccination), being 53% higher in males and increasing exponentially with age. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, we found 133 cases (1.42%) with detectable clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations (mCA) and 226 males (5.08%) with acquired loss of chromosome Y (LOY). Individuals with clonal mosaic events (mCA and/or LOY) showed a 54% increase in the risk of COVID-19 lethality. LOY is associated with transcriptomic biomarkers of immune dysfunction, pro-coagulation activity and cardiovascular risk. Interferon-induced genes involved in the initial immune response to SARS-CoV-2 are also down-regulated in LOY. Thus, mCA and LOY underlie at least part of the sex-biased severity and mortality of COVID-19 in aging patients. Given its potential therapeutic and prognostic relevance, evaluation of clonal mosaicism should be implemented as biomarker of COVID-19 severity in elderly people. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, individuals with clonal mosaic events (clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations and/or loss of chromosome Y) showed an increased risk of COVID-19 lethality

Robust estimation of bacterial cell count from optical density

Optical density (OD) is widely used to estimate the density of cells in liquid culture, but cannot be compared between instruments without a standardized calibration protocol and is challenging to relate to actual cell count. We address this with an interlaboratory study comparing three simple, low-cost, and highly accessible OD calibration protocols across 244 laboratories, applied to eight strains of constitutive GFP-expressing E. coli. Based on our results, we recommend calibrating OD to estimated cell count using serial dilution of silica microspheres, which produces highly precise calibration (95.5% of residuals <1.2-fold), is easily assessed for quality control, also assesses instrument effective linear range, and can be combined with fluorescence calibration to obtain units of Molecules of Equivalent Fluorescein (MEFL) per cell, allowing direct comparison and data fusion with flow cytometry measurements: in our study, fluorescence per cell measurements showed only a 1.07-fold mean difference between plate reader and flow cytometry data

Income distribution and economic growth: an analysis based on Brazilian financialization

Este trabalho se compõe de duas principais frentes de investigação, abordadas por meio de duas vias metodológicas. São investigados os impactos das instituições, especialmente das instituições financeiras, sobre a distribuição de renda no Brasil e os impactos subsequentes da distribuição de renda sobre o crescimento econômico brasileiro, ambos desde a abertura econômica e financeira dos anos 90, até os dias atuais. E são utilizadas como metodologias de abordagem, uma via histórico-institucional num primeiro momento e uma via analítico-teórica, num segundo momento. As principais categorias estudadas incluem os condicionantes históricos de uma estrutura distributiva desigual, a consolidação do setor financeiro no Brasil, as relações entre este último, o Estado e a sociedade, a hipótese de uma nova classe média e a proposta de um modelo que contempla parte desses aspectos, procurando contribuir para melhor lidar com eles. Conclui-se pela existência de uma desigualdade estrutural na distribuição de renda (apesar de recentemente atenuada), pela permanência cultural de um elemento de orientação pelo status e emulação de padrões de consumo, pelos riscos significativos de uma trajetória de endividamento dos trabalhadores e pelos privilégios assegurados ao setor financeiro através de sua adequação ao conceito sociológico de \"campo\". Finalmente, constatou-se que o movimento de melhoria do salário mínimo e formalização da mão-de-obra, nos últimos anos, constitui condição necessária, mas ainda não suficiente para assegurar a sustentação do crescimento econômico com progressivo avanço na estrutura funcional de distribuição de renda no país.This work is composed by two main fronts of investigation, which are approached by means of two methodological perspectives. It investigates the impact of the institutions, especially the financial institutions, on income distribution in Brazil, as well as the subsequent impact of income distribution on Brazilian economic growth, from the economic and financial opening in 1990\'s up to the present time. The methodological perspectives used to address these questions are, first, historical-institutional, and then, analytic-theoretical. The main issues studied are: the historical restrictions of an unequal income distribution, the consolidation of a financial sector in Brazil, the relationship between the latter and the Estate and society and the hypothesis that a new middle class emerged in Brazil recently. Finally, I construct a theoretical model to help us analyse aspects of these issues. This model also allows us to derive policy prescriptions aimed at improving the negative aspects of income inequality and low economic growth. The conclusion we reached points to the existence of a structural income inequality (although recently mitigated), to the cultural persistence of a status orientation element and the emulation of consumption patterns, to the considerable risk of adebt path of the working-class and to the privileges secured to the financial sector (through its adequation to the sociological concept of \"field\" ). Finally we note that the recent improvement in minimum wage and in the formalization of employment constitute a necessary yet not sufficient condition to ensure long lasting economic growth combined with gradual advance in the functional structure of income distribution in the country

Demanda efetiva no longo prazo e no processo de acumulação: o debate sraffiano a partir do projeto de Garegnani (1962)

Resumo O artigo discute a evolução do projeto sraffiano, iniciado em 1962 por Garegnani, de desenvolver uma teoria da demanda efetiva de longo prazo. Tratamos tanto dos aspectos metodológicos quanto analíticos, começando com a questão da compatibilidade entre o princípio da demanda efetiva e a abordagem clássica do excedente. Discutimos as relações entre os graus efetivo e normal da utilização da capacidade e o problema do caráter dual do investimento. A seguir relacionamos estes conceitos com a noção de posições de longo prazo e a análise do processo de ajustamento da capacidade à demanda no processo de acumulação de capital

Evaluation of a quality improvement intervention to reduce anastomotic leak following right colectomy (EAGLE): pragmatic, batched stepped-wedge, cluster-randomized trial in 64 countries

Background Anastomotic leak affects 8 per cent of patients after right colectomy with a 10-fold increased risk of postoperative death. The EAGLE study aimed to develop and test whether an international, standardized quality improvement intervention could reduce anastomotic leaks. Methods The internationally intended protocol, iteratively co-developed by a multistage Delphi process, comprised an online educational module introducing risk stratification, an intraoperative checklist, and harmonized surgical techniques. Clusters (hospital teams) were randomized to one of three arms with varied sequences of intervention/data collection by a derived stepped-wedge batch design (at least 18 hospital teams per batch). Patients were blinded to the study allocation. Low- and middle-income country enrolment was encouraged. The primary outcome (assessed by intention to treat) was anastomotic leak rate, and subgroup analyses by module completion (at least 80 per cent of surgeons, high engagement; less than 50 per cent, low engagement) were preplanned. Results A total 355 hospital teams registered, with 332 from 64 countries (39.2 per cent low and middle income) included in the final analysis. The online modules were completed by half of the surgeons (2143 of 4411). The primary analysis included 3039 of the 3268 patients recruited (206 patients had no anastomosis and 23 were lost to follow-up), with anastomotic leaks arising before and after the intervention in 10.1 and 9.6 per cent respectively (adjusted OR 0.87, 95 per cent c.i. 0.59 to 1.30; P = 0.498). The proportion of surgeons completing the educational modules was an influence: the leak rate decreased from 12.2 per cent (61 of 500) before intervention to 5.1 per cent (24 of 473) after intervention in high-engagement centres (adjusted OR 0.36, 0.20 to 0.64; P < 0.001), but this was not observed in low-engagement hospitals (8.3 per cent (59 of 714) and 13.8 per cent (61 of 443) respectively; adjusted OR 2.09, 1.31 to 3.31). Conclusion Completion of globally available digital training by engaged teams can alter anastomotic leak rates. Registration number: NCT04270721 (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov)