Understanding rural outmigration and agricultural land use change in the Gandaki Basin, Nepal

This study investigates agricultural land use change in Chitwan, Nuwakot and Lamjung districts of Nepal (1990-2017) in relation to rural outmigration, which has steadily increased. A remittance economy has fuelled urbanization processes as well as transformations in the rural economy. Results of the study show that agricultural land abandonment is higher in mountain areas than in the plains (Terai). When men out-migrate women continue to farm, leading to the feminization of agriculture. But when significant numbers of women out-migrate, farms are abandoned as older people are often unable to do the work. Increased commercialization and competitiveness of agriculture may reduce land abandonment.UK Government's Department for International Development (DFID

A systematic review of participatory scenario planning to envision mountain social-ecological systems futures

Mountain social-ecological systems (MtSES) provide crucial ecosystem services to over half of humanity. However, populations living in these highly varied regions are now confronted by global change. It is critical that they are able to anticipate change to strategically manage resources and avoid potential conflict. Yet, planning for sustainable, equitable transitions for the future is a daunting task, considering the range of uncertainties and the unique character of MtSES. Participatory scenario planning (PSP) can help MtSES communities by critically reflecting on a wider array of innovative pathways for adaptive transformation. Although the design of effective approaches has been widely discussed, how PSP has been employed in MtSES has yet to be examined. Here, we present the first systematic global review of single- and multiscalar, multisectoral PSP undertaken in MtSES, in which we characterize the process, identify strengths and gaps, and suggest effective ways to apply PSP in MtSES. We used a nine-step process to help guide the analysis of 42 studies from 1989 screened articles. Our results indicate a steady increase in relevant studies since 2006, with 43% published between 2015 and 2017. These studies encompass 39 countries, with over 50% in Europe. PSP in MtSES is used predominantly to build cooperation, social learning, collaboration, and decision support, yet meeting these objectives is hindered by insufficient engagement with intended end users. MtSES PSP has focused largely on envisioning themes of governance, economy, land use change, and biodiversity, but has overlooked themes such as gender equality, public health, and sanitation. There are many avenues to expand and improve PSP in MtSES: to other regions, sectors, across a greater diversity of stakeholders, and with a specific focus on MtSES paradoxes. Communicating uncertainty, monitoring and evaluating impacts, and engendering more comparative approaches can further increase the utility of PSP for addressing MtSES challenges, with lessons for other complex social-ecological systems

A systematic review of participatory scenario planning to envision mountain social-ecological systems futures

Mountain social-ecological systems (MtSES) provide crucial ecosystem services to over half of humanity. However, populations living in these highly varied regions are now confronted by global change. It is critical that they are able to anticipate change to strategically manage resources and avoid potential conflict. Yet, planning for sustainable, equitable transitions for the future is a daunting task, considering the range of uncertainties and the unique character of MtSES. Participatory scenario planning (PSP) can help MtSES communities by critically reflecting on a wider array of innovative pathways for adaptive transformation. Although the design of effective approaches has been widely discussed, how PSP has been employed in MtSES has yet to be examined. Here, we present the first systematic global review of single- and multiscalar, multisectoral PSP undertaken in MtSES, in which we characterize the process, identify strengths and gaps, and suggest effective ways to apply PSP in MtSES. We used a nine-step process to help guide the analysis of 42 studies from 1989 screened articles. Our results indicate a steady increase in relevant studies since 2006, with 43% published between 2015 and 2017. These studies encompass 39 countries, with over 50% in Europe. PSP in MtSES is used predominantly to build cooperation, social learning, collaboration, and decision support, yet meeting these objectives is hindered by insufficient engagement with intended end users. MtSES PSP has focused largely on envisioning themes of governance, economy, land use change, and biodiversity, but has overlooked themes such as gender equality, public health, and sanitation. There are many avenues to expand and improve PSP in MtSES: to other regions, sectors, across a greater diversity of stakeholders, and with a specific focus on MtSES paradoxes. Communicating uncertainty, monitoring and evaluating impacts, and engendering more comparative approaches can further increase the utility of PSP for addressing MtSES challenges, with lessons for other complex social-ecological systems. © 2020 by the author(s)

Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Distribution of Major Non-Timber Forest Plants in Chitwan Annapurna Landscape, Nepal

For many decades, non-timber forest products (NTFPs) have been an important livelihood commodity in Nepal as a traditional source of food, fiber, and medicines. However, the importance of NTFPs have been recognized only recently. NTFPs form more than 5% of Nepal’s national gross domestic product and are facing threat due to anthropogenic drivers and changing climate. Understanding of the current distribution and future dynamics of NTFPs is essential for effective conservation planning and management. In the maiden attempt, we used the Maxent model to understand the current and predict the future distribution by 2050 of 10 major NTFPs in Chitwan Annapurna Landscape, Nepal. The prediction accuracy of the models calculated based on the area under curve was high (>90%) and the prediction by 2050 highlights potential increase in distribution range of seven NTFPs and potential decrease in that of three NTFPs in the study area. The results from our study could play an important role in planning and management of these NTFPs considering their high economic and ecological significance and sensitivity to predicted climate change

Perceived Changes in Ecosystem Services in the Panchase Mountain Ecological Region, Nepal

Ecosystem services (ES) are increasingly recognized as a means to facilitate adaption to environmental change. However, the provisions of ES are likely to be impacted by changes in climate and/or changes in land use. In developing countries, where people are typically dependent on these services for their livelihoods, these impacts are of concern; however, very little is known about the changes in provisioning of ES over time. In this study, we assess the perceived changes on ES in the Panchase Mountain Ecological Region of western Nepal. The study area accommodates three distinct ecoregions, ranging from lowland to upland ecosystems and communities. Focus group discussions and key informant interviews were used to collect information on how ES may have changed in the landscape over time. This approach was supported by transect walks, field observations, and secondary sources of information, such as climatic and remote sensing data. Perceived changes on ES in the study region include reduced availability of water, reduced food production, degradation of forest ecosystems, and changes in species compositions. These changes are thought to have impacted other ES, and, in turn, local livelihoods. Management actions that can help local communities foster ES are recommended

Future of Endemic Flora of Biodiversity Hotspots in India

<div><p>India is one of the 12 mega biodiversity countries of the world, which represents 11% of world's flora in about 2.4% of global land mass. Approximately 28% of the total Indian flora and 33% of angiosperms occurring in India are endemic. Higher human population density in biodiversity hotspots in India puts undue pressure on these sensitive eco-regions. In the present study, we predict the future distribution of 637 endemic plant species from three biodiversity hotspots in India; Himalaya, Western Ghats, Indo-Burma, based on A1B scenario for year 2050 and 2080. We develop individual variable based models as well as mixed models in MaxEnt by combining ten least co-related bioclimatic variables, two disturbance variables and one physiography variable as predictor variables. The projected changes suggest that the endemic flora will be adversely impacted, even under such a moderate climate scenario. The future distribution is predicted to shift in northern and north-eastern direction in Himalaya and Indo-Burma, while in southern and south-western direction in Western Ghats, due to cooler climatic conditions in these regions. In the future distribution of endemic plants, we observe a significant shift and reduction in the distribution range compared to the present distribution. The model predicts a 23.99% range reduction and a 7.70% range expansion in future distribution by 2050, while a 41.34% range reduction and a 24.10% range expansion by 2080. Integration of disturbance and physiography variables along with bioclimatic variables in the models improved the prediction accuracy. Mixed models provide most accurate results for most of the combinations of climatic and non-climatic variables as compared to individual variable based models. We conclude that a) regions with cooler climates and higher moisture availability could serve as refugia for endemic plants in future climatic conditions; b) mixed models provide more accurate results, compared to single variable based models.</p></div

Future distribution of endemic plants in Indian biodiversity hotspots under A1B scenario with contribution of predictor variables, a) for year 2050, b) 2080; change in distribution range during c) year 2050, d) 2080.

<p>Venn diagrams indicate the model performance of individual variable based models and mixed models for individual hotspot (Bio4: Temperature seasonality, Bio7: Temperature annual range, Bio15: Precipitation seasonality, Bio20: Annual mean radiation, Bio28: Annual mean moisture index, Bio32: Mean moisture index of wettest quarter, PDensity: Human population density, TerCom: Terrain complexity).</p

Understanding the dynamics in distribution of invasive alien plant species under predicted climate change in Western Himalaya

<div><p>Invasive alien plant species (IAPS) can pose severe threats to biodiversity and stability of native ecosystems, therefore, predicting the distribution of the IAPS plays a crucial role in effective planning and management of ecosystems. In the present study, we use Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling approach to predict the potential of distribution of eleven IAPS under future climatic conditions under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 in part of Kailash sacred landscape region in Western Himalaya. Based on the model predictions, distribution of most of these invasive plants is expected to expand under future climatic scenarios, which might pose a serious threat to the native ecosystems through competition for resources in the study area. Native scrublands and subtropical needle-leaved forests will be the most affected ecosystems by the expansion of these IAPS. The present study is first of its kind in the Kailash Sacred Landscape in the field of invasive plants and the predictions of potential distribution under future climatic conditions from our study could help decision makers in planning and managing these forest ecosystems effectively.</p></div

Overall relative importance of predictor variables for invasive species from Jackknife test.

<p>Overall relative importance of predictor variables for invasive species from Jackknife test.</p

Highly susceptible areas of KSL Nepal to invasion by IAPS.

<p>Highly susceptible areas of KSL Nepal to invasion by IAPS.</p