Endogenous Risks and Learning in Climate Change Decision Analysis

We analyze the effects of risks and learning on climate change decisions. A two-stage, dynamic, climate change stabilization problem is formulated. The explicit incorporation of ex-post learning induces risk aversion among ex-ante decisions, which is characterized in linear models by VaR- and CVaR-type risk measures. Combined with explicit introduction of "safety" constraints, it creates a "hit-or-miss" type decision-making situation and shows that, even in linear models, learning may lead to either less-or more restrictive ex-ante emission reductions. We analyze stylized elements of the model in order to identify the key factors driving outcomes, in particular, the critical role of quantiles of probability distributions characterizing key uncertainties

Mortality, morbidity and economic growth

The question of whether and how changes to population health impact on economic growth has been actively studied in the literature, albeit with mixed results. We contribute to this debate by reassessing-and extending-[1], one of the most influential studies. We include a larger set of countries (135) and cover a more recent period (1990-2014). We also account for morbidity in addition to mortality and adopt the strategy of providing bounding sets for the effects of interest rather than point estimates. We find that reducing mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALYs), a measure which combines morbidity and mortality, promotes per capita GDP growth. The magnitude of the effect is moderate, but non negligible, and it is similar for mortality and DALYs

Smoking risks in Spain: Part I- Perception of risks to the smoker

Survey evidence for the Spanish population indicates that perceptions of lung cancer risk and life expectancy loss due to smoking are similar to estimates found in the United States. This paper also presents new evidence on the relative lung cancer risk for smokers, the perceived risk of lung disease for smokers, the heart disease risk for smokers, and the relative heart disease risk for smokers, all of which indicate substantial risk perceptions. Risk beliefs are particularly high for younger respondents, but are lower for better educated respondents

Smoking Risks in Spain: Part III - Determinants of Smoking Behavior

Using original survey data from Spain, this paper assesses the determinants of smoking behavior. This study examines the effect on smoking of the most diverse set of risk measures ever considered: lung cancer, relative lung cancer risks, lung disease, heart disease, relative heart disease risks, lost life expectancy to smokers, and various risk measures for passive smoking. Smoking measures include cigarette smoking, the number of cigarettes smoked, and pipe and cigar smoking. Primary smoking risks have a more consistent negative effect on smoking than perceived passive smoking risks