The effect of sub-national borrowing control on fiscal sustainability: how to regulate?

This article examines effectiveness of sub-national borrowing control regimes in maintaining overall fiscal sustainability. The results suggest that regulating sub-national borrowing based on fiscal rules performs most efficiently in maintaining fiscal consolidation. Furthermore, sole reliance on financial markets seems to lead to faster end of fiscal consolidation episodes, which may be explained by not fully developed financial markets in many countries that dominantly apply this approach, Finally, strong central government control, as in case of administrative and cooperative regimes, in presence of high fiscal dependence on central government financing seem to increase the probability of ending consolidation episodes

Sub-National Borrowing, Is It Really a Danger?

Due to widespread decentralization of spending responsibilities, increasing revenue power and borrowing capacity of sub-national governments, sub-national borrowing has become an increasingly important source of sub-national finance. While there are arguments for and against giving sub-national authorities room for raising their own financial resources, appropriate sub-national borrowing regulatory framework can reduce chances of defaults and fiscal crises. This dissertation investigates the effectiveness of sub-national borrowing regulations in maintaining fiscal sustainability. More precisely, it tests the hypothesis that is sub-national borrowing is restricted to financing capital investments (the “golden rule”), and if the sub-national governments are provided with some measure of revenue autonomy, then the sub-national borrowing should not endanger fiscal sustainability. Based on the sub-national government panel data for 57 countries between 1990 and 2008 and applying the system GMM estimator and the survival analysis, this dissertation provides support for this hypothesis. The results suggest that the “golden rule” is effective in maintaining fiscal sustainability at both general and sub-national government level. Sub-national tax autonomy, however, seems to have positive but very small marginal effect on fiscal sustainability. The obtained results also emphasize the risk of the soft budget constraint and the moral hazard. Significant central government financing may give encouraging signs to the sub-national governments to over-borrow and to expect being bailed out by the central government. The results obtained in this dissertation imply following policy recommendations. First, sub-national government borrowing does not have to endanger fiscal sustainability if the borrowing regulation framework is well designed and according to specific country circumstances. Second, reducing fiscal dependence on central government financing reduces the risk of moral hazard and improves the effectiveness of borrowing control in maintaining fiscal balance at the sustainable level

Government Fiscal Policies and Redistribution in Asian Countries

This paper assesses the impact of government fiscal policies on income inequality in Asia. It discusses the role and effectiveness of redistributive fiscal policies and quantifies the effects of taxation and government expenditure on income distributions. Panel estimation for 150 countries with data between 1970 and 2009 confirms international empirical findings for Asia. Tax systems tend to be progressive but government expenditures are a more effective tool for redistributing income. Moreover, the results suggest some distinctive differential distributive effect for government expenditure on social protection in Asia. Social protection spending appears to increase income inequality, whereas it reduces it in the rest of the world. Also, adversely affecting the distribution of income in Asia is government expenditure on housing. Some options for improving the effectiveness of fiscal policies in Asia are discussed. (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.

Measuring tax effort: Does the estimation approach matter and should effort be linked to expenditure goals?

In this paper we attempt to take a fresh look at the classical question of the determinants of tax effort. Our goal is to better understand the fundamental economic logic of the different approaches that have been used in the previous literature, consider alternative measurements which may provide a more direct intuition of what the concept of tax effort attempts to measure, and to compare quantitatively the rankings of tax effort produced by all these different approaches. As we see it, the fundamental issue is how to move forward toward a definition of tax effort that has a higher relevance to the developmental needs and budgetary ambitions of a country and as an indicator of potential tax reform needs. Fundamentally, all tax effort indicators are calculated by comparing actual collection performance against a measure of potential collections. This definitional choice lays out several dimensions for the conduct of tax policy in a country. These include the need for reform to raise revenues with reference to some potential, the desirable timing and urgency of those reforms, and the extent of the gains in national welfare that are achievable with these reforms. While the first two dimensions have been examined in different ways in the previous literature, in this paper, for the first time in this literature, we will examine how much the two different approaches to estimation of tax effort matter as compared to those conventionally used. In addition, and also for the first time in this literature, in this paper we argue for the need to explicitly link the adequacy of tax effort with the specific expenditure goals of government and their associated gains in national welfare

Coping with Rising Inequality in Asia: How Effective Are Fiscal Policies

This paper discusses the role and effectiveness of redistributive fiscal policies and provides estimates of the effects of taxation and government expenditure on income inequality in Asia. Tax systems around the world tend to be progressive, but government expenditure is generally found to be a more effective tool for redistributing income. In Asia, government spending on social protection has a distinctive differential distributive impact. Social protection spending appears to increase income inequality in Asia, whereas it reduces it in the rest of the world. Government expenditure on housing is also adversely affecting the distribution of income in Asia. Policy options for improving the redistributional effectiveness of fiscal policies in Asia are discussed

Government Fiscal Policies and Redistribution in Asian Countries

This paper assesses the impact of government fiscal policies on income inequality in Asia. It discusses the role and effectiveness of redistributive fiscal policies and quantifies the effects of taxation and government expenditure on income distributions. Panel estimation for 150 countries with data between 1970 and 2009 confirms international empirical findings for Asia. Tax systems tend to be progressive but government expenditures are a more effective tool for redistributing income. Moreover, the results suggest some distinctive differential distributive effect for government expenditure on social protection in Asia. Social protection spending appears to increase income inequality, whereas it reduces it in the rest of the world. Also, adversely affecting the distribution of income in Asia is government expenditure on housing. Some options for improving the effectiveness of fiscal policies in Asia are discussed

The Impact of Tax and Expenditure Policies on Income Disttribution: Evidence from a Large Panel of Countries

This paper focuses is on the potential role that taxation and public expenditure policies play in general in affecting income distribution. We find that progressive personal income taxes and corporate in-come taxes reduce income inequality. However, the effect of corporate income taxes seems to be eroded away in open or globalized economies. We also find that general consumption taxes, excise taxes and customs duties have a negative impact on income distribution. On the expenditure side, we find that higher shares of GDP on social welfare, education, health and housing public expenditures have a positive impact on income distribution

The Impact of Tax and Expenditure Policies on Income Distribution: Evidence from a Large Panel of Countries

The main focus of this paper is on the potential role that taxation and public expenditure policies play in general in affecting income distribution. We find that progressive personal income taxes and corporate income taxes reduce income inequality. The effect of corporate income taxes seems to be eroded away in open or globalized economies. We also generally find that general consumption taxes, excise taxes and customs duties have a negative impact on income distribution. On the expenditure side, we find that higher shares of GDP on social welfare, education, health and housing public expenditures have a positive impact on income distribution

Tax Structure in Latin American: Its Impact on the Real Economy

In this paper we review the structure of tax systems in Latin America and analyze their impact on the real economy - economic growth, macro-economic stability, and income redistribution. We find that in Latin America relatively higher reliance on direct taxes slows economic growth, although this effect is smaller than in the ‘Rest of the World.’ However, unlike in most other countries, higher reliance on direct taxes in Latin America does not appear to play a sig-nificant role in dampening economic volatility or in reducing income inequality in the region