Quantifying relative fishing impact on fish populations based on spatio-temporal overlap of fishing effort and stock density

Evaluations of the effects of management measures on fish populations are usually based on the analyses of population dynamics and estimates of fishing mortality from stock assessments. However, this approach may not be applicable in all cases, in particular for data limited stocks, which may suffer from uncertain catch information and consequently lack reliable estimates of fishing mortality. In this study we develop an approach to obtain proxies for changes in fishing mortality based on effort information and predicted stock distribution. Cod in the Kattegat is used as an example. We use GAM analyses to predict local cod densities and combine this with spatio-temporal data of fishing effort based on VMS (Vessel Monitoring System). To quantify local fishing impact on the stock, retention probability of the gears is taken into account. The results indicate a substantial decline in the impact of Danish demersal trawl fleet on cod in the Kattegat in recent years, due to a combination of closed areas, introduction of selective gears and changes in overall effort

Digitale læremidler som bro mellem de samfundsfaglige vidensfelter?

Digitale læremidler som bro mellem de samfundsfaglige vidensfelter

A failure-rate model for the Danish corporate sector

This paper presents an accounting-based model developed in Dan-marks Nationalbank to predict failure rates in the Danish corporate sector. The model serves as a tool in analysing the Danish corporate sector in relation to financial stability. The main purpose is to assess the banks' credit risk on the corporate sector. By using logistic regression the model is estimated on 300,000 ac-counts of the Danish corporate sector published in the period from 1995 to 1999. Nine indicators from the accounts, including more qualitative information about the company, are significant in predict-ing the failure rates of Danish companies. Besides the basic model, models at sector level and by number of employees in the company are estimated

Emergence of a new predator in the North Sea: evaluation of potential trophic impacts focused on hake, saithe, and Norway pout

During the last 15 years, northern European hake (Merluccius merluccius) has increased in abundance, and its spatial distribution has expanded in the North Sea region in correlation with temperature. In a context of global warming, this spatial shift could impact local trophic interactions: direct impacts may affect forage fish through modified predator–prey interactions, and indirect impacts may materialize through competition with other resident predators. For instance, North Sea saithe (Pollachius virens) spatial overlap with hake has increased while saithe spawning-stock biomass has decreased recently notwithstanding a sustainable exploitation. In this context, we investigated the range of potential impacts resulting from most recent hake emergence in the North Sea, with a particular focus on saithe. We carried out a multispecies assessment of North Sea saithe, using the Stochastic MultiSpecies (SMS) model. In addition to top-down processes already implemented in SMS, we built in the model bottom-up processes, relating Norway pout (Trisopterus esmarkii) abundance and saithe weight-at-age. We simulated the effects, on all North Sea species being considered but focusing on Norway pout and saithe, of combining different hake abundance trends scenarios with the inclusion of bottom-up processes in SMS. North Sea saithe FMSY was then evaluated in a multispecies context and contrasted with single-species value. The different scenarios tested revealed a negative impact of hake emergence on saithe biomass, resulting from an increase of predation pressure on Norway pout. These results confirm the competition assumption between saithe and hake in the North Sea and might partially explain the most recent decrease of saithe biomass. This study also highlighted that taking into account bottom-up processes in the stock assessment had a limited effect on the estimation of saithe FMSY which was consistent with single-species value