Urban Land Use Land Cover Changes and Their Effect on Urban Thermal Pattern: Case Study of Nigeria’s Federal Capital City

Since the official movement of the seat of government from Lagos to Abuja in 1991, the Federal Capital City being the most habitable area in the entire Federal Capital Territory has continued to experience rising urban population growth; this has resulted in a significant modification of its natural landscape. Such modifications often affect the microclimate of cities. This study investigates the effect of changing urban land use/cover on urban thermal pattern through the application of remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS) and statistical methods. Land use land cover (LULC) and land surface temperature (LST) were extracted from Landsat 4 TM (1987) and Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS (2014). The result of LULC show that while built-up area and wasteland classes increased by 19.93% (from 23.57% in 1987 to 43.50% in 2014) and 15.87% (from 14.88% in 1987 to 30.75% in 2014) respectively, vegetation cover decreased by 35.63% (from 60.63% in 1987 to 25% in 2014). This significant vegetation cover loss to both built-up area and wasteland is an indication of man’s dominance of the landscape of the city.  The study revealed that the lowest values for minimum, maximum and mean temperature occurred in 1987 (17.03, 31.16 and 24.3°C respectively) while the highest values for minimum, maximum and mean temperature occurred in 2014 (25.01, 37.38 and 32.54°C respectively). In 1987, relatively lower LST values (23-26°C) were dominant occupying about 84.38% of the total land area while, in 2014; higher LST values (31-34°C) were dominant occupying approximately 84.14% of the total land area. These results show that a significant portion of the natural landscape elements of the FCC has been removed due to rapid urbanization and this has resulted in the formation of hotspots across the city. The results of this research bring to fore the need for urban planners in the FCC to put in place temperature-mitigation strategies so as to ensure the sustainability of the city. Keywords: LULC; LST; classification; FCC; SUHI

Progress and challenges of demand-led co-produced sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts in Nigeria

This paper identifies fundamental issues which prevent the effective uptake of climate information services in Nigeria. We propose solutions which involve the extension of short-range (1 to 5 days) forecasts beyond that of medium-range (7 to 15 days) timescales through the operational use of current forecast data as well as improve collaboration and communication with forecast users. Using newly available data to provide seamless operational forecasts from short-term to sub-seasonal timescales, we examine evidence to determine if effective demand-led sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts can be co-produced. This evidence involves: itemization of forecast products delivered to stakeholders, with their development methodology; enumeration of inferences of forecast products and their influences on decisions taken by stakeholders; user-focused discussions of improvements on co-produced products; and the methods of evaluating the performance of the forecast products. We find that extending the production pipeline of short-range forecast timescales beyond the medium-range, such that the medium-range forecast timescales can be fed into existing tools for applying short-range forecasts, assisted in mitigating the risks of sub-seasonal climate variability on socio-economic activities in Nigeria. We also find that enhancing of collaboration and communication channels between the producers and the forecast product users helps to: enhance the development of user-tailored impact-based forecasts; increases users’ trusts in the forecasts; and, seamlessly improves forecast evaluations. In general, these measures lead to more smooth delivery and increase in uptake of climate information services in Nigeria

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patients with paediatric cancer in low-income, middle-income and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, observational cohort study

OBJECTIVES: Paediatric cancer is a leading cause of death for children. Children in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) were four times more likely to die than children in high-income countries (HICs). This study aimed to test the hypothesis that the COVID-19 pandemic had affected the delivery of healthcare services worldwide, and exacerbated the disparity in paediatric cancer outcomes between LMICs and HICs. DESIGN: A multicentre, international, collaborative cohort study. SETTING: 91 hospitals and cancer centres in 39 countries providing cancer treatment to paediatric patients between March and December 2020. PARTICIPANTS: Patients were included if they were under the age of 18 years, and newly diagnosed with or undergoing active cancer treatment for Acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, Hodgkin lymphoma, Wilms' tumour, sarcoma, retinoblastoma, gliomas, medulloblastomas or neuroblastomas, in keeping with the WHO Global Initiative for Childhood Cancer. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: All-cause mortality at 30 days and 90 days. RESULTS: 1660 patients were recruited. 219 children had changes to their treatment due to the pandemic. Patients in LMICs were primarily affected (n=182/219, 83.1%). Relative to patients with paediatric cancer in HICs, patients with paediatric cancer in LMICs had 12.1 (95% CI 2.93 to 50.3) and 7.9 (95% CI 3.2 to 19.7) times the odds of death at 30 days and 90 days, respectively, after presentation during the COVID-19 pandemic (p<0.001). After adjusting for confounders, patients with paediatric cancer in LMICs had 15.6 (95% CI 3.7 to 65.8) times the odds of death at 30 days (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected paediatric oncology service provision. It has disproportionately affected patients in LMICs, highlighting and compounding existing disparities in healthcare systems globally that need addressing urgently. However, many patients with paediatric cancer continued to receive their normal standard of care. This speaks to the adaptability and resilience of healthcare systems and healthcare workers globally

Research capacity. Enabling the genomic revolution in Africa.

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Adaptation of the Wound Healing Questionnaire universal-reporter outcome measure for use in global surgery trials (TALON-1 study): mixed-methods study and Rasch analysis

BackgroundThe Bluebelle Wound Healing Questionnaire (WHQ) is a universal-reporter outcome measure developed in the UK for remote detection of surgical-site infection after abdominal surgery. This study aimed to explore cross-cultural equivalence, acceptability, and content validity of the WHQ for use across low- and middle-income countries, and to make recommendations for its adaptation.MethodsThis was a mixed-methods study within a trial (SWAT) embedded in an international randomized trial, conducted according to best practice guidelines, and co-produced with community and patient partners (TALON-1). Structured interviews and focus groups were used to gather data regarding cross-cultural, cross-contextual equivalence of the individual items and scale, and conduct a translatability assessment. Translation was completed into five languages in accordance with Mapi recommendations. Next, data from a prospective cohort (SWAT) were interpreted using Rasch analysis to explore scaling and measurement properties of the WHQ. Finally, qualitative and quantitative data were triangulated using a modified, exploratory, instrumental design model.ResultsIn the qualitative phase, 10 structured interviews and six focus groups took place with a total of 47 investigators across six countries. Themes related to comprehension, response mapping, retrieval, and judgement were identified with rich cross-cultural insights. In the quantitative phase, an exploratory Rasch model was fitted to data from 537 patients (369 excluding extremes). Owing to the number of extreme (floor) values, the overall level of power was low. The single WHQ scale satisfied tests of unidimensionality, indicating validity of the ordinal total WHQ score. There was significant overall model misfit of five items (5, 9, 14, 15, 16) and local dependency in 11 item pairs. The person separation index was estimated as 0.48 suggesting weak discrimination between classes, whereas Cronbach's α was high at 0.86. Triangulation of qualitative data with the Rasch analysis supported recommendations for cross-cultural adaptation of the WHQ items 1 (redness), 3 (clear fluid), 7 (deep wound opening), 10 (pain), 11 (fever), 15 (antibiotics), 16 (debridement), 18 (drainage), and 19 (reoperation). Changes to three item response categories (1, not at all; 2, a little; 3, a lot) were adopted for symptom items 1 to 10, and two categories (0, no; 1, yes) for item 11 (fever).ConclusionThis study made recommendations for cross-cultural adaptation of the WHQ for use in global surgical research and practice, using co-produced mixed-methods data from three continents. Translations are now available for implementation into remote wound assessment pathways

Twelve-month observational study of children with cancer in 41 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

Childhood cancer is a leading cause of death. It is unclear whether the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted childhood cancer mortality. In this study, we aimed to establish all-cause mortality rates for childhood cancers during the COVID-19 pandemic and determine the factors associated with mortality