Bearing the Cost of Stored Carbon Leakage

Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is considered a key technology for stabilizing climate change. However, leakage of CO2 from stored carbon can potentially undermine the value of carbon storage as a mitigation option. Thus, monitoring and verifiability of CO2 storage should be encouraged through policy provisions such as accounting and pricing of leaked emissions. Here we assess different institutional and economic mechanisms for accounting for carbon leakage. Using an integrated assessment model we quantify the impacts on the climate, the economy and the mitigation strategies. Results show that carbon leakage can reduce the share of fossil based CCS by up to 35%, if it is controlled and correctly priced. Biomass based CCS is less affected. Accounting for leakage leads to an increase of climate policy costs of up to 0.4 percentage points due to increased emissions

The role of carbon capture and storage electricity in attaining 1.5 and 2 °C

The climate targets defined under the Paris agreement of limiting global temperature increase below 1.5 or 2 °C require massive deployment of low-carbon options in the energy mix, which is currently dominated by fossil fuels. Scenarios suggest that Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) might play a central role in this transformation, but CCS deployment is stagnating and doubts remain about its techno-economic feasibility. In this article, we carry out a throughout assessment of the role of CCS electricity for a variety of temperature targets, from 1.5 to above 4 °C, with particular attention to the lower end of this range. We collect the latest data on CCS economic and technological future prospects to accurately represent several types of CCS plants in the WITCH energy-economy model, We capture uncertainties by means of extensive sensitivity analysis in parameters regarding plants technical aspects, as well as costs and technological progress. Our research suggests that stringent temperature scenarios constrain fossil fuel CCS based deployment, which is maximum for medium policy targets. On the other hand, Biomass CCS, along with renewables, increases with the temperature stringency. Moreover, the relative importance of cost and performance parameters change with the climate target. Cost uncertainty matters in less stringent policy cases, whereas performance matters for lower temperature targets

The MESSAGEix Integrated Assessment Model and the ix modeling platform (ixmp)

The MESSAGE Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) developed by IIASA has been a central tool of energy-environment-economy systems analysis in the global scientific and policy arena. It played a major role in the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); it provided marker scenarios of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs); and it underpinned the analysis of the Global Energy Assessment (GEA). Alas, to provide relevant analysis for current and future challenges, numerical models of human and earth systems need to support higher spatial and temporal resolution, facilitate integration of data sources and methodologies across disciplines, and become open and transparent regarding the underlying data, methods, and the scientific workflow. In this manuscript, we present the building blocks of a new framework for an integrated assessment modeling platform; the \ecosystem" comprises: i) an open-source GAMS implementation of the MESSAGE energy++ system model integrated with the MACRO economic model; ii) a Java/database backend for version-controlled data management, iii) interfaces for the scientific programming languages Python & R for efficient input data and results processing workflows; and iv) a web-browser-based user interface for model/scenario management and intuitive \drag-and-drop" visualization of results. The framework aims to facilitate the highest level of openness for scientific analysis, bridging the need for transparency with efficient data processing and powerful numerical solvers. The platform is geared towards easy integration of data sources and models across disciplines, spatial scales and temporal disaggregation levels. All tools apply best-practice in collaborative software development, and comprehensive documentation of all building blocks and scripts is generated directly from the GAMS equations and the Java/Python/R source code

Cooperation and joint investments are key to sustainable development in the Indus basin

Achieving sustainable development in the Indus basin will strongly depend on the capacity of riparian countries to realize the opportunities that arise when cooperation and joint investments across sectors and countries are embraced

Achieving renewable energy-centered sustainable development futures for rural Africa

Multi-dimensional and overlapping Nexus challenges affect many parts of rural sub-Saharan Africa. More than 90% of cropland is rainfed, less than one third of households have electricity at home, more than 15% of people report insufficient food intake and more than 40% of people live below the poverty line. Climate change impacts on vulnerable systems with limited adaptive capacity and strong population growth are increasing the magnitude of the challenge. As a result, there is a strong need for multi-level, multi-sector interventions (from national policies to regional/river basin-scale planning, to local planning and investment). To implement such actions, it is key to assess solutions (technology and investment) and appraise their feasibility and implementation potential (from both a policy and a financial point of view). In this study, we soft-link bottom-up process-based water and energy demand and techno-economic infrastructure assessment models into a multi-node, national Nexus-extended Integrated Assessment Model (MESSAGEix-Nexus) for supply and investment assessment. Based on the integrated modelling, we obtain an understanding of the role of an explicit consideration of (productive) energy access jointly with Water-Agriculture-Food interlinkages for rural Nexus infrastructure requirements, investment, and sustainable development objectives. This demonstrates how climate impacts and water and energy needs affect each other and jointly shape infrastructure and investment pathways. Then, by linking technical models with business models analysis, we are able to assess feasibility of implementation and appraise which are the key micro and macro determinants to ensure feasibility, investment, and uptake of small-scale Nexus infrastructure, crucial for rural development and adaptation to changing climate conditions. Altogether, our research demonstrates how national-scale integrated modelling with an explicit focus on Nexus interlinkages allows for assessing locally-relevant demand sources and investment needs, and their implications for sustainable development. In turn, this allows for deriving policy and investment-relevant insights