Awais, M.

Byers, E.

Harmsen, M.

Krey, V.

Riahi, K.

Tagomori, I.S.

Vinca, A.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Combining climate action with sustainabledevelopment objectives requires accessingmultiple crises simultaneously.Representation of the United Nation’sSustainable Development Goals (SDGs)indicators and proxies along with climateimpacts have been less explored in theglobal scenarios. Developing thesescenarios requires quantitative coverage ofthe SDGs and translating complex sectoralinteractions using spatial and temporallyresolved multi-sectoral systems. This studycompares two Integrated AssessmentModels; MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM & IMAGEscenarios and compares the results inorder to identify challenges and limitationsof scenarios in integrating multi-sectoralimpacts and SDG dimensions. Moreover,the preliminary results provides insights inidentifying model limitations as well as thechallenges of these complex synergies.SummaryPreliminary ResultsScenario DesignFigure A: Examples of some of the biophysical impact indicators used within the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM model. Both model use different assumptions. We found more significant variability of hydrology related parameters. I)  Hydrological variability from LPjML model across different climate scenarios for 2050. II) Climate impacts on water withdrawals for 2050 III) AC cooling demand gap and how climate impact affects the cooling demand gap (Mastrucci et al. 2021)Achieving a balance between SDGs & Climate impacts across Energy, Water Land nexusMuhammad Awais, Adriano Vinca, Edward Byers, Isabela Schmidt Tagomori, Mathjis Harmsen, Volker Krey, Keywan RiahiNovember 29,2022•Hydrological variation​•Crop Yield changes•Renewable energy•Cooling/heating demand•Desalination potential​•Power plant cooling capacity​Heathy (EAT-Lancet) diet, food waste reductionEfficiency improvements, environmental flows, access to water, wastewater​ treatmentProtected natural land (>30%)Maximized electrification, phase-out traditional bio, cooling gap2.6 W/m2 targetSDGs [1]Climate Impacts [2]Climate Policy[1] Based on: Doelman et al. 2022, MESSAGE-ACCESS, Van Vuuren et al., 2019, Parkinson et al., 2019, Frank et al., 2021, Hasegawa et al., 2015, Pastor et al., 2019[2] Based on various literature sources and methodologies for different impact indicators from ISIMIP 2b (Frieler et al. 2017 ), Byers et al., 2018, Gernaat et al., 2021 etc.)III) Cooling Demand GapThe scenarios are based on the SSP2 scenario. The scenarios are set up using different assumptionsalong three dimensions: Climate policy, SDG measures and climate impacts/feedbacks. All assumptionshave been, as much as possible, aligned between the two models, to allow for a scenario comparisonthat mostly reflects model differences.Figure B: Key indicators relatedto Impacts & SDGs from bothmodels are reported. The barsshow the percentage differenceincrease or decrease from abaseline scenario (no SDG & noclimate feedbacks) .CF & noCFhere represents the differencebetween only SDG and thecombined effect of SDG andclimate feedbacks. Thepercentage difference is averagedfrom 2030 onwards till the end ofcentury to include short term SDGimpacts and long term climateimpacts in the results.• Vulnerable regions show moresensitivity to climate impacts.• SDG targets in land sector reduces theoverall SDG policy costs and impactsenergy & water expenditures.• Reductions in irrigation withdrawalsfrom land sector helps balancing out thelimited water in vulnerable regions.• Identifying causality between climateimpacts and SDGs is complicated due tolarge number of variables and sectoraldimensionsKey Insights• Multi-sector climate feedbacks inIntegrated Assessment Model scenarioscan be included in various sectoralprocesses.• It increases complexity, but improvesreliability of climate and SDG policyanalysis and helps to derive• It is still to be discussed how biophysicalapproaches to CI assessment compareto macro-economic assessments​​II) Water WithdrawalTake-awaysI) Water ResourcesThe authors acknowledge the fundingrom the NAVIGATE project of theEuropean Union’s Horizon 2020research and innovation program.AcknowledgmentKey indicator results

Achieving a balance between SDGs & Climate impacts across Energy, Water Land nexus

https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/18489/1/Poster_IAMC_2022_Awais.pdf

Achieving a balance between SDGs & Climate impacts across Energy, Water Land nexus

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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)