Awais, M.

Falchetta, G.

Giordano, V.

Ireland, G.

Semeria, F.

Tuninetti, M.

Vinca, A.

Zulu, A.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Soft-linking climate-land-water-energy assessment and planning models for sustainable development in rural Africa: preliminary results from the LEAP-RE RE4AFAGRI projectGiacomo Falchetta1,2 , M. Awais 1, E. Byers 1, V. Giordano 3, G. Ireland4, F. Semeria3, M. Tuninetti3, A. Vinca, 1, and A. Zulu51. IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria2. CMCC, Venice, Italy3. DIATI, Politecnico di Torino, Turin, Italy4. University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa5. University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia26th April 2023EGU 2023Session HS5.7Background: rural SSA – WEFE Nexus challenges10.1016/j.esr.2022.100922• Rainfed agriculture and scarce electricity access• Low productivity and raw crops to wholesale• Poverty and inequality trap​sFigures: Falchetta (2021)Data: World Bank, FAOUnder baseline trends, most development gaps still open (or even larger) by 2030, together with a rapidly growing population (900+ million people by 2050, UN 2019 prospects)Study objectives• Multi-sectoral assessment and planning oftechnologies and policies to promote integratedclimate-water-renewable energy-agriculture sustainabledevelopment in rural areas• To inform policymakers• To support the creation of robust business modelsfor private companies• Multi-scale focus: local access to electricity andirrigation water; local system configuration andinvestment costs; up to macro consequences forfinancing energy and water supply technologies.• Pilot implementation in Zambia, open modellingframework to scale and replicate in other countries /basins10.1016/j.esr.2022.100922The RE4AFAGRI modelling platform10.1016/j.esr.2022.100922Tuninetti et al. (2015)Falchetta et al. (2021)Mentis et al. (2017)Vinca et al.(2020)Four models representing land-water-crop-food-energy requirements and dynamics (WaterCROP, M-LED, OnSSETand MESSAGE-NEST) are calibrated and soft-linked through the RE4AFAGRI platform.Scenarios and dataStory/question RCP National goals SSP“Baseline” RCP 7.0Current policiesAgriculture: historical trend of productionSSP2Improved access RCP 7.0Electricity access: halving the gap in 2030 water access & sanitation: halving the gap in 2030; Food security: increasing water supply to meet domestic food crops production demand in 2030 (given current diet, no extensification, fertilization, trade)SSP2Ambitious development, sustainable targetsRCP7.0 (SSP1, RCP2.6 on land)Energy universal access, universal water access & sanitation; nutrition security: improve yields to meet future food crop production demand to meet the EAT Lancet diet in 2030;Renewable electricity share = 100% + climate constraintsSSP2Scenarios tableMain input datasets• ISIMIP3b climate data• RCP-SSP: socio-economic development and climate projections• MAPSpam 2017 SSA cropland extent• IEA energy balances• GRID3 population settelement extents• OSM power grid geometry• Global Solar & Wind Atlases (RES potential)• MESSAGEiX database• Additional data (see LEAP-RE deliverable 12.5)Results – irrigation gap and needsWaterCROP evapotranspiration model• In Zambia, irrigation needs grow as a result of climatechange (2020-2050 in baseline scenario), as well as [notshown yet here] due to increase of irrigated land (improvedaccess scenario) and to close the irrigation gap (ambitiousdevelopment scenario).• Total water demand grows from 1,180 MCM/yr. in 2020 to1,250 MCM/yr. in 2050• Considerable within-country variability observed in sub-nationalriver basin/administrative unit intersections, and shift inseasonality (intensification of peak demand).Total irrigation needsTotal irrigation needsResults – water pumping and crop processing energy• Energy demand for water pumping isdetermined both by irrigation needsand by the local accessibility togroundwater/surface water resources.• Currently, low demand as vast majorityof cropland is rainfed…• With irrigation expansion and climatechange → growing demandSeasonality of irrigation plays animportant role in determiningmonthly variability in pumpingenergy demand.• Crop processing energy demand is a function of crop yield andprocessed throughput• Considerable energy demand growth driven by policies promotingenergy access and local crop processing in the three scenarios• Impact of crop yield change induced by climate changeembedded.Results – electricity demand (total)• Electricity demand is currentlyconcentrated in the capital city Lusaka andin the mining districts in the North-Western part of Zambia• Electricity demand will grow strongly andbecome less unequally distributed by 2050• Residential, commercial, and industrialdemand will represent the bulk of thegrowth in electricity demand-• Still, agricultural demand plays animportant role in rural areas and indetermining electrification needs andsolutions (next slides).Results – energy access, 2030• The bulk of new connections require centralgrid extension, but a substantial number(>1/3) will come from mini-grids.• Standalone solutions are mostly insufficientto provide energy for non-residential energyneeds (e.g. crop processing) and thus onlypenetrate in few non-productive locations.• Investment requirements and capacityadditions mirror energy access gaps and cost-optimal set-ups• Largest additions are found in highlypopulated and productive-activity denseLusaka and Central region• Overall, about 1.2 GW are required to achieveSDG 7.1 of universal electricity access by2030• This translates in 3.9 bn. USD in capacity,transmission, and distribution infrastructureinvestment requirements.Final objective: integrated assessment and development goalsSession HS5.5Thu, 27 Apr, 09:05–09:15Vinca et al., The benefits of rural electrification to improve water access and irrigation in Sub-Saharan Africa, a water-energy-land assessment framework applied to Zambia.• Implementation of bottom-up estimates of local water needs, electricity demand, and optimal electricity access technologies presented here into a WEF Nexus multi-node integrated assessment model• To estimate investment portfolios under different scenarios and policies• For instance, cost of water supply and synergies and trade-offs between development objectives • National and sub-national basin-level results to inform stakeholders at multiple levelsVinca et al. (2020)Code, data, and dashboardsData:The RE4AFAGRI Zenodo channel hosts both the data products generated as outputs ofthe modelling platform (visualised in the Dasbhoards) and the original input data tooperate the modelling platform and replicate the analysis.Code:The RE4AFAGRI Github repository hosts the source code of the modelling platform,which, in combination with the data bundles, allows to run the analysis from scratchwith customised assumptions and data, or adapt it to other geographies.Documentation:The RE4AFAGRI Wiki page hosts the official documentation of the modelling platform,to be used during the RE4AFAGRI capacity building activities, as well as byautonomous users willing to operate their own version of the platform. Enter the dashboardsInteractive results visualisation dashboards for stakeholdersForthcoming trainings and events LEAP-RE Stakeholder ForumKigali, 11-14th October 2023RE4AGRI – WRI Workshops - 2023Addis Ababa, 16-20th October 2023• High-level course on tools, assessment and policy analysis of the water-energy-land nexus in SSA​• Technical course on WEL-nexus modelling tools​• WRI offices, UNDP complex​• Approx 30 participants​, free to attendInfo and application: https://iiasa.ac.at/events/oct-2023/re4afagri-iiasa-and-world-resources-institute-wri-joint-workshopsA workshop to support African policy makers and private developers on topics relating to the water-energy-land nexus and rural development - focusing on making data-informed decisions with support of the RE4AFAGRI dashboards and business models.Thank you!falchetta@iiasa.ac.at

Soft-linking climate-land-water-energy assessment and

planning models for sustainable development in rural Africa:

preliminary results from the LEAP-RE RE4AFAGRI project

https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/18748/1/Presentation_EGU_23_re4afagri.pdf

Soft-linking climate-land-water-energy assessment and planning models for sustainable development in rural Africa: preliminary results from the LEAP-RE RE4AFAGRI project

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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)