Contributions to uncertainty related to hydrostratigraphic modeling using multiple-point statistics

Forecasting the flow of groundwater requires a hydrostratigraphic model, which describes the architecture of the subsurface. State-of-the-art multiple-point statistical (MPS) tools are readily available for creating models depicting subsurface geology. We present a study of the impact of key parameters related to stochastic MPS simulation of a real-world hydrogeophysical dataset from Kasted, Denmark, using the snesim algorithm. The goal is to study how changes to the underlying datasets propagate into the hydrostratigraphic realizations when using MPS for stochastic modeling. This study focuses on the sensitivity of the MPS realizations to the geophysical soft data, borehole lithology logs, and the training image (TI). The modeling approach used in this paper utilizes a cognitive geological model as a TI to simulate ensemble hydrostratigraphic models. The target model contains three overall hydrostratigraphic categories, and the MPS realizations are compared visually as well as quantitatively using mathematical measures of similarity. The quantitative similarity analysis is carried out exhaustively, and realizations are compared with each other as well as with the cognitive geological model.The results underline the importance of geophysical data for constraining MPS simulations. Relying only on borehole data and the conceptual geology, or TI, results in a significant increase in realization uncertainty. The airborne transient electromagnetic SkyTEM data used in this study cover a large portion of the Kasted model area and are essential to the hydrostratigraphic architecture. On the other hand, the borehole lithology logs are sparser, and 410 boreholes were present in this study. The borehole lithology logs infer local changes in the immediate vicinity of the boreholes, thus, in areas with a high degree of geological heterogeneity, boreholes only provide limited large-scale structural information. Lithological information is, however, important for the interpretation of the geophysical responses. The importance of the TI was also studied. An example was presented where an alternative geological model from a neighboring area was used to simulate hydrostratigraphic models. It was shown that as long as the geological settings are similar in nature, the realizations, although different, still reflect the hydrostratigraphic architecture. If a TI containing a biased geological conceptualization is used, the resulting realizations will resemble the TI and contain less structure in particular areas, where the soft data show almost even probability to two or all three of the hydrostratigraphic units.</p

Nature's Swiss Army Knives: Ovipositor Structure Mirrors Ecology in a Multitrophic Fig Wasp Community

Resource partitioning is facilitated by adaptations along niche dimensions that range from morphology to behaviour. The exploitation of hidden resources may require specially adapted morphological or sensory tools for resource location and utilisation. Differences in tool diversity and complexity can determine not only how many species can utilize these hidden resources but also how they do so.The sclerotisation, gross morphology and ultrastructure of the ovipositors of a seven-member community of parasitic wasps comprising of gallers and parasitoids developing within the globular syconia (closed inflorescences) of Ficus racemosa (Moraceae) was investigated. These wasps also differ in their parasitism mode (external versus internal oviposition) and their timing of oviposition into the expanding syconium during its development. The number and diversity of sensilla, as well as ovipositor teeth, increased from internally ovipositing to externally ovipositing species and from gallers to parasitoids. The extent of sclerotisation of the ovipositor tip matched the force required to penetrate the syconium at the time of oviposition of each species. The internally ovipositing pollinator had only one type of sensillum and a single notch on the ovipositor tip. Externally ovipositing species had multiple sensilla types and teeth on their ovipositors. Chemosensilla were most concentrated at ovipositor tips while mechanoreceptors were more widely distributed, facilitating the precise location of hidden hosts in these wasps which lack larval host-seeking behaviour. Ovipositor traits of one parasitoid differed from those of its syntopic galler congeners and clustered with those of parasitoids within a different wasp subfamily. Thus ovipositor tools can show lability based on adaptive necessity, and are not constrained by phylogeny.Ovipositor structure mirrored the increasingly complex trophic ecology and requirements for host accessibility in this parasite community. Ovipositor structure could be a useful surrogate for predicting the biology of parasites in other communities

Changes to the Fossil Record of Insects through Fifteen Years of Discovery

The first and last occurrences of hexapod families in the fossil record are compiled from publications up to end-2009. The major features of these data are compared with those of previous datasets (1993 and 1994). About a third of families (>400) are new to the fossil record since 1994, over half of the earlier, existing families have experienced changes in their known stratigraphic range and only about ten percent have unchanged ranges. Despite these significant additions to knowledge, the broad pattern of described richness through time remains similar, with described richness increasing steadily through geological history and a shift in dominant taxa, from Palaeoptera and Polyneoptera to Paraneoptera and Holometabola, after the Palaeozoic. However, after detrending, described richness is not well correlated with the earlier datasets, indicating significant changes in shorter-term patterns. There is reduced Palaeozoic richness, peaking at a different time, and a less pronounced Permian decline. A pronounced Triassic peak and decline is shown, and the plateau from the mid Early Cretaceous to the end of the period remains, albeit at substantially higher richness compared to earlier datasets. Origination and extinction rates are broadly similar to before, with a broad decline in both through time but episodic peaks, including end-Permian turnover. Origination more consistently exceeds extinction compared to previous datasets and exceptions are mainly in the Palaeozoic. These changes suggest that some inferences about causal mechanisms in insect macroevolution are likely to differ as well