190 research outputs found
A comparative analysis of the relationship between flood experience and private flood mitigation behaviour in the regions of England
There has been a move towards a more integrated approach to flood risk management, which includes a stronger focus on property level measures. However, in England the uptake of these measures remains low. Flood experience has been found to influence preparedness (i.e. the uptake of measures), but even experience does not always result in an increase in preparedness. We investigate the variations in the relationship between experience and preparedness for the regions of England as defined by the Environment Agency. Analysis of survey data collected by the Environment Agency among the at risk population between 1997 to 2004 was undertaken to determine the differences between the seven regions. We find that in the South West, Southern and Anglian regions increases in preparedness with increasing experience are higher compared to other regions. In the Thames, Midlands and North West regions the preparedness increases less with increasing experience. We explore the influence of other factors influencing flood mitigation behaviour that have been previously found in the literature and find that the differences between regions are correlated with the severity of experienced flooding and whether English is the first language of the respondents
The role of flood wave superposition in the severity of large floods
Abstract. The severity of floods is shaped not only by event- and catchment-specific characteristics but also depends on the river network
configuration. At the confluence of relevant tributaries with the main
river, flood event characteristics may change depending on the magnitude
and temporal match of flood waves. This superposition of flood
waves may potentially increase the flood severity downstream in the main
river. However, this aspect has not been analysed for a large set
of river confluences to date. To fill this gap, the role of flood wave superposition in the flood
severity at downstream gauges is investigated in four large
river basins in Germany and Austria (the Elbe, the Danube, the Rhine and
the Weser). A novel methodological approach to analyse flood wave
superposition is presented and applied to mean daily discharge data from
37 triple points. A triple point consists of three gauges: one in the
tributary as well as one upstream and downstream of the confluence with the
main river respectively. At the triple points, differences and similarities in
flood wave characteristics between the main river and the tributary are
analysed in terms of the temporal match and the magnitudes of flood peaks. At many of the confluences analysed, the tributary peaks consistently arrive
earlier than the main river peaks, although high variability in the
time lag is generally detected. No large differences in temporal matching are
detected for floods of different magnitudes. In the majority of
cases, the largest floods at the downstream gauge do not occur due to
perfect temporal match between the tributary and the main river. In terms of
spatial variability, the impact of flood wave superposition is
site-specific. Characteristic patterns of flood wave superposition are
detected for flood peaks in the Danube River, where peak discharges
largely increase due to inflow from alpine tributaries. Overall, we
conclude that the superposition of flood waves is not the driving
factor behind flood peak severity at the major confluences in Germany; however,
a few confluences show the potential for strong flood magnifications if a temporal shift in flood waves was to occur
A comparative analysis of the relationship between flood experience and private flood mitigation behaviour in the regions of England
There has been a move towards a more integrated approach to flood risk management, which includes a stronger focus on property level measures. However, in England the uptake of these measures remains low. Flood experience has been found to influence preparedness (i.e., the uptake of measures), but even experience does not always result in an increase in preparedness. We investigate the variations in the relationship between experience and preparedness for the regions of England as defined by the Environment Agency. Analysis of survey data collected by the Environment Agency among the at risk population between 1997 and 2004 was undertaken to determine the differences between the seven regions. We find that in the South West, Southern and Anglian regions increases in preparedness with increasing experience are higher compared to other regions. In the Thames, Midlands and North West regions the preparedness increases less with increasing experience. We explore the influence of other factors influencing flood mitigation behaviour that have been previously found in the literature and find that the differences between regions are correlated with the severity of experienced flooding and whether English is the first language of the respondents
Regional parent flood frequency distributions in Europe – Part 1: Is the GEV model suitable as a pan-European parent?
Abstract. This study addresses the question of the existence of a parent flood frequency distribution on a European scale. A new database of L-moment ratios of flood annual maximum series (AMS) from 4105 catchments was compiled by joining 13 national data sets. Simple exploration of the database presents the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution as a potential pan-European flood frequency distribution, being the three-parameter statistical model that with the closest resemblance to the estimated average of the sample L-moment ratios. Additional Monte Carlo simulations show that the variability in terms of sample skewness and kurtosis present in the data is larger than in a hypothetical scenario where all the samples were drawn from a GEV model. Overall, the generalized extreme value distribution fails to represent the kurtosis dispersion, especially for the longer sample lengths and medium to high skewness values, and therefore may be rejected in a statistical hypothesis testing framework as a single pan-European parent distribution for annual flood maxima. The results presented in this paper suggest that one single statistical model may not be able to fit the entire variety of flood processes present at a European scale, and presents an opportunity to further investigate the catchment and climatic factors controlling European flood regimes and their effects on the underlying flood frequency distributions
Exploring the physical controls of regional patterns of flow duration curves – Part 1: Insights from statistical analyses
The flow duration curve (FDC) is a classical method used to graphically represent the relationship between the frequency and magnitude of streamflow. In this sense it represents a compact signature of temporal runoff variability that can also be used to diagnose catchment rainfall-runoff responses, including similarity and differences between catchments. This paper is aimed at extracting regional patterns of the FDCs from observed daily flow data and elucidating the physical controls underlying these patterns, as a way to aid towards their regionalization and predictions in ungauged basins. The FDCs of total runoff (TFDC) using multi-decadal streamflow records for 197 catchments across the continental United States are separated into the FDCs of two runoff components, i.e., fast flow (FFDC) and slow flow (SFDC). In order to compactly display these regional patterns, the 3-parameter mixed gamma distribution is employed to characterize the shapes of the normalized FDCs (i.e., TFDC, FFDC and SFDC) over the entire data record. This is repeated to also characterize the between-year variability of "annual" FDCs for 8 representative catchments chosen across a climate gradient. Results show that the mixed gamma distribution can adequately capture the shapes of the FDCs and their variation between catchments and also between years. Comparison between the between-catchment and between-year variability of the FDCs revealed significant space-time symmetry. Possible relationships between the parameters of the fitted mixed gamma distribution and catchment climatic and physiographic characteristics are explored in order to decipher and point to the underlying physical controls. The baseflow index (a surrogate for the collective impact of geology, soils, topography and vegetation, as well as climate) is found to be the dominant control on the shapes of the normalized TFDC and SFDC, whereas the product of maximum daily precipitation and the fraction of non-rainy days was found to control the shape of the FFDC. These relationships, arising from the separation of total runoff into its two components, provide a potential physical basis for regionalization of FDCs, as well as providing a conceptual framework for developing deeper process-based understanding of the FDCs
Estimating parameter values of a socio-hydrological flood model
Socio-hydrological modelling studies that have been published so far show that dynamic coupled human-flood models are a promising tool to represent the phenomena and the feedbacks in human-flood systems. So far these models are mostly generic and have not been developed and calibrated to represent specific case studies. We believe that applying and calibrating these type of models to real world case studies can help us to further develop our understanding about the phenomena that occur in these systems. In this paper we propose a method to estimate the parameter values of a socio-hydrological model and we test it by applying it to an artificial case study. We postulate a model that describes the feedbacks between floods, awareness and preparedness. After simulating hypothetical time series with a given combination of parameters, we sample few data points for our variables and try to estimate the parameters given these data points using Bayesian Inference. The results show that, if we are able to collect data for our case study, we would, in theory, be able to estimate the parameter values for our socio-hydrological flood model
Human signatures derived from nighttime lights along the Eastern Alpine river network in Austria and Italy
Understanding how human settlements and economic activities are distributed
with reference to the geographical location of streams and rivers is of
fundamental relevance for several issues, such as flood risk management,
drought management related to increased water demands by human population,
fluvial ecosystem services, water pollution and water exploitation. Besides
the spatial distribution, the evolution in time of the human presence
constitutes an additional key question. This work aims at understanding and
analysing the spatial and temporal evolution of human settlements and
associated economic activity, derived from nighttime lights, in the Eastern
Alpine region. Nightlights, available at a fine spatial resolution and for a
22-year period, constitute an excellent data base, which allows one to
explore in details human signatures. In this experiment, nightlights are
associated to five distinct distance-from-river classes. Our results clearly
point out an overall enhancement of human presence across the considered
distance classes during the last 22Â years, though presenting some differences
among the study regions. In particular, the river network delineation, by
considering different groups of river pixels based on the Strahler order, is
found to play a central role in the identification of nightlight
spatio-temporal trends
Evolutionary leap in large-scale flood risk assessment needed
Current approaches for assessing large-scale flood risks contravene the fundamental principles of the flood risk system functioning because they largely ignore basic interactions and feedbacks between atmosphere, catchments, river-floodplain systems and socio-economic processes. As a consequence, risk analyses are uncertain and might be biased. However, reliable risk estimates are required for prioritizing national investments in flood risk mitigation or for appraisal and management of insurance portfolios. We review several examples of process interactions and highlight their importance in shaping spatio-temporal risk patterns. We call for a fundamental redesign of the approaches used for large-scale flood risk assessment. They need to be capable to form a basis for large-scale flood risk management and insurance policies worldwide facing the challenge of increasing risks due to climate and global change. In particular, implementation of the European Flood Directive needs to be adjusted for the next round of flood risk mapping and development of flood risk management plans focussing on methods accounting for more process interactions in flood risk systems
Accoglienza e presa in carico dei giovani con diabete di tipo 1. analisi preliminare del valore di un intervento psicoeducativo.
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