Making hurricane track data accessible

Our interactive tool allows the exploration, validation and presentation of hundreds of years of dynamically simulated storm tracks. The tracks were generated as part of a research project to improve the risk assessment of tropical storm damage by the insurance industry. The main impact of the tool is that exploratory interactive visualisation is now being used by the storm track modellers to (a) validate and improve model outputs, (b) discuss outputs with their peers (c) obtain a better understanding of the formation and development of tropical storms and (d) present examples of the behaviour of storms under different conditions to the insurance industry and others. Insights into tropical storm behaviour have been obtained and these insights are being articulated

Visualization design and verification of Ada tasking using timing diagrams

The use of timing diagrams is recommended in the design and testing of multi-task Ada programs. By displaying the task states vs. time, timing diagrams can portray the simultaneous threads of data flow and control which characterize tasking programs. This description of the system's dynamic behavior from conception to testing is a necessary adjunct to other graphical techniques, such as structure charts, which essentially give a static view of the system. A series of steps is recommended which incorporates timing diagrams into the design process. Finally, a description is provided of a prototype Ada Execution Analyzer (AEA) which automates the production of timing diagrams from VAX/Ada debugger output

Designing Interactive Graphics for Validating and Interpreting Storm Track Model Outputs

We report on some initial work in which we designed interactive graphics to help climate scientists identify and extract good examples of simulated storm-tracks from a large dataset to help disseminate information to various audiences. A side-effect of this work was that the exploratory potential offered by the interactive graphics helped our climate scientist coauthors validate and interpret their data in a way that was not previously possible for them. We are extending this work to provide support for a wider range of validation and interpretative tasks, with a focus on answering questions of relevance to the insurance industry. We describe our collaborative approach, that draws on ideas from ’patchwork prototyping’ [2, 5] in which a rapid iterative process of design, implementation and testing, is used to help provide the functionality to support a set of ‘user stories’

European summer climate variability in a heterogeneous multi-model ensemble

Recent results from an enhanced greenhouse-gas scenario over Europe suggest that climate change might not only imply a general mean warming at the surface, but also a pronounced increase in interannual surface temperature variability during the summer season (Schär etal., Nature 427:332-336, 2004). It has been proposed that the underlying physical mechanism is related to land surface-atmosphere interactions. In this study we expand the previous analysis by including results from a heterogeneous ensemble of 11 high-resolution climate models from the PRUDENCE project. All simulations considered comprise 30-year control and enhanced greenhouse-gas scenario periods. While there is considerable spread in the models' ability to represent the observed summer variability, all models show some increase in variability for the scenario period, confirming the main result of the previous study. Averaged over a large-scale Central European domain, the models simulate an increase in the standard deviation of summer mean temperatures between 20 and 80%. The amplification occurs predominantly over land points and is particularly pronounced for surface temperature, but also evident for precipitation. It is also found that the simulated changes in Central European summer conditions are characterized by an emergence of dry and warm years, with early and intensified depletion of root-zone soil moisture. There is thus some evidence that the change in variability may be linked to the dynamics of soil-moisture storage and the associated feedbacks on the surface energy balance and precipitatio

A comparative study of satellite and ground-based phenology

Long time series of ground-based plant phenology, as well as more than two decades of satellite-derived phenological metrics, are currently available to assess the impacts of climate variability and trends on terrestrial vegetation. Traditional plant phenology provides very accurate information on individual plant species, but with limited spatial coverage. Satellite phenology allows monitoring of terrestrial vegetation on a global scale and provides an integrative view at the landscape level. Linking the strengths of both methodologies has high potential value for climate impact studies. We compared a multispecies index from ground-observed spring phases with two types (maximum slope and threshold approach) of satellite-derived start-of-season (SOS) metrics. We focus on Switzerland from 1982 to 2001 and show that temporal and spatial variability of the multispecies index correspond well with the satellite-derived metrics. All phenological metrics correlate with temperature anomalies as expected. The slope approach proved to deviate strongly from the temporal development of the ground observations as well as from the threshold-defined SOS satellite measure. The slope spring indicator is considered to indicate a different stage in vegetation development and is therefore less suited as a SOS parameter for comparative studies in relation to ground-observed phenology. Satellite-derived metrics are, however, very susceptible to snow cover, and it is suggested that this snow cover should be better accounted for by the use of newer satellite sensor

Complex scattering within D" observed on the very dense Los Angeles Region Seismic Experiment passive array

Several seismic phases that scattered within a few hundred kilometers of the base of the mantle are observed in a very dense seismic section. The Los Angeles Region Seismic Experiment passive phase array was composed of 88 seismometers placed along a 175 km profile. Records from two deep earthquakes in Tonga and one earthquake near Honshu, Japan show a secondary arrival between clear P and PcP arrivals. Modeling with layered structures shows that the Tonga and Honshu seismic sections are consistent with an increase in seismic velocity 140 and 240 km above the core-mantle boundary, respectively, and a ≃10-km thick low-velocity zone at the base of the mantle beneath a region in the mid Pacific. Several of these arrivals are not coherent enough to appear in higher resolution stacks from the much larger Southern California Seismic Network. This experiment illustrates that fine-scale passive array data can reveal small-scale deep Earth structure invisible to larger-scale seismic networks

A critical assessment of the long term changes in the wintertime surface Arctic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere storminess in the ERA20C reanalysis

This study investigates the robustness of the long-term changes in the wintertime surface Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the ERA20C reanalysis. A statistically significant trend in the AO is found in ERA20C over the period 1900-2010. These long-term changes in the AO are not found in two other observational datasets. The long term change in the AO in ERA20C is associated with statistically significant negative trend (approximately -6hPa per century) in mean-sea level pressure (MSLP) over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar regions. This is not seen in the HADSLP2 observational dataset, suggesting that the trends in the ERA20C AO index may be spurious. The spurious long term changes in MSLP and the AO index in ERA20C result in a strengthening of the meridional MSLP gradient in ERA20C. The strengthening of the meridional MSLP gradient is consistent with increases in wintertime storminess in Northern Europe and the NH high latitudes

The sensitivity of Euro-Atlantic regimes to model horizontal resolution

There is growing evidence that the atmospheric dynamics of the Euro-Atlantic sector during winter is driven in part by the presence of quasi-persistent regimes. However, general circulation models typically struggle to simulate these with, for example, an overly weakly persistent blocking regime. Previous studies have showed that increased horizontal resolution can improve the regime structure of a model but have so far only considered a single model with only one ensemble member at each resolution, leaving open the possibility that this may be either coincidental or model dependent. We show that the improvement in regime structure due to increased resolution is robust across multiple models with multiple ensemble members. However, while the high-resolution models have notably more tightly clustered data, other aspects of the regimes may not necessarily improve and are also subject to a large amount of sampling variability that typically requires at least three ensemble members to surmount

Contribution of tropical cyclones to atmospheric moisture transport and rainfall over East Asia

The coastal region of East Asia (EA) is one of the regions with the most frequent impacts from tropical cyclones (TCs). In this study, rainfall and moisture transports related to TCs are measured over the EA, and the contribution of TCs to the regional water budget is compared with other contributors, especially the mean circulation of the EA summer monsoon (EASM). Based on ERA-Interim re-analysis (1979–2012), the trajectories of TCs are identified using an objective feature tracking method. Over 60% of TCs occur from July to October (JASO). During JASO, TC rainfall contributes 10-30% the of monthly total rainfall over the coastal region of EA; this contribution is highest over the south/southeast coast of China in September. TCs make a larger contribution to daily extreme rainfall (above the 95th percentile): 50-60% over the EA coast and as high as 70% over Taiwan island. Compared with the mean EASM, TCs transport less moisture over the EA. However, as the peak of the mean seasonal cycle of TCs lags two months behind that of the EASM, the moisture transported by TCs is an important source for the water budget over the EA region when the EASM withdraws. This moisture transport is largely performed by westward-moving TCs. These results improve our understanding of the water cycle of EA and provide a useful test bed for evaluating and improving seasonal forecasts and coupled climate models