Dynamic communicability and epidemic spread: a case study on an empirical dynamic contact network

We analyze a recently proposed temporal centrality measure applied to an empirical network based on person-to-person contacts in an emergency department of a busy urban hospital. We show that temporal centrality identifies a distinct set of top-spreaders than centrality based on the time-aggregated binarized contact matrix, so that taken together, the accuracy of capturing top-spreaders improves significantly. However, with respect to predicting epidemic outcome, the temporal measure does not necessarily outperform less complex measures. Our results also show that other temporal markers such as duration observed and the time of first appearance in the the network can be used in a simple predictive model to generate predictions that capture the trend of the observed data remarkably well.Comment: 31 pages, 15 figures, 11 tables; typos corrected; references added; Figure 3 added; some changes to the conclusion and introductio

Bayesian Analysis of Evidence from Studies of Warfarin v Aspirin for Symptomatic Intracranial Stenosis

Bayesian analyses of symptomatic intracranial stenosis studies were conducted to compare the benefits of long-term therapy with warfarin to aspirin. The synthesis of evidence of effect from previous nonrandomized studies in monitoring a randomized clinical trial was of particular interest. Sequential Bayesian learning analysis was conducted and Bayesian hierarchical random effects models were used to incorporate variability between studies. The posterior point estimates for the risk rate ratio (RRR) were similar between analyses, although the interval estimates resulting from the hierarchical analyses are larger than the corresponding Bayesian learning analyses. This demonstrated the difference between these methods in accounting for between-study variability. This study suggests that Bayesian synthesis can be a useful supplement to futility analysis in the process of monitoring randomized clinical trials

Restricted Quasi-Independent Model Resolves Paradoxical Behaviors of Cohen’s Kappa

Cohen’s kappa, an index of inter-rater agreement, behaves paradoxically in 2×2 tables. λA is derived, an index from the restricted quasi-independent model for 2×2 tables. Simulation studies are used to demonstrate λA has superior performance compared to Scott’s pi. Moreover, λA does not show paradoxical behavior for 2×2 tables

Relationships of gut microbiota, short-chain fatty acids, inflammation, and the gut barrier in Parkinson's disease

Background Previous studies have reported that gut microbiota, permeability, short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs), and inflammation are altered in Parkinson's disease (PD), but how these factors are linked and how they contribute to disease processes and symptoms remains uncertain. This study sought to compare and identify associations among these factors in PD patients and controls to elucidate their interrelations and links to clinical manifestations of PD. Methods Stool and plasma samples and clinical data were collected from 55 PD patients and 56 controls. Levels of stool SCFAs and stool and plasma inflammatory and permeability markers were compared between patients and controls and related to one another and to the gut microbiota. Results Calprotectin was increased and SCFAs decreased in stool in PD in a sex-dependent manner. Inflammatory markers in plasma and stool were neither intercorrelated nor strongly associated with SCFA levels. Age at PD onset was positively correlated with SCFAs and negatively correlated with CXCL8 and IL-1 beta in stool. Fecal zonulin correlated positively with fecal NGAL and negatively with PD motor and non-motor symptoms. Microbiota diversity and composition were linked to levels of SCFAs, inflammatory factors, and zonulin in stool. Certain relationships differed between patients and controls and by sex. Conclusions Intestinal inflammatory responses and reductions in fecal SCFAs occur in PD, are related to the microbiota and to disease onset, and are not reflected in plasma inflammatory profiles. Some of these relationships are distinct in PD and are sex-dependent. This study revealed potential alterations in microbiota-host interactions and links between earlier PD onset and intestinal inflammatory responses and reduced SCFA levels, highlighting candidate molecules and pathways which may contribute to PD pathogenesis and clinical presentation and which warrant further investigation.Peer reviewe

Chronic Beryllium Disease and Sensitization at a Beryllium Processing Facility

We conducted a medical screening for beryllium disease of 577 former workers from a beryllium processing facility. The screening included a medical and work history questionnaire, a chest radiograph, and blood lymphocyte proliferation testing for beryllium. A task exposure and a job exposure matrix were constructed to examine the association between exposure to beryllium and the development of beryllium disease. More than 90% of the cohort completed the questionnaire, and 74% completed the blood and radiograph component of the screening. Forty-four (7.6%) individuals had definite or probable chronic beryllium disease (CBD), and another 40 (7.0%) were sensitized to beryllium. The prevalence of CBD and sensitization in our cohort was greater than the prevalence reported in studies of other beryllium-exposed cohorts. Various exposure measures evaluated included duration; first decade worked; last decade worked; cumulative, mean, and highest job; and highest task exposure to beryllium (to both soluble and nonsoluble forms). Soluble cumulative and mean exposure levels were lower in individuals with CBD. Sensitized individuals had shorter duration of exposure, began work later, last worked longer ago, and had lower cumulative and peak exposures and lower nonsoluble cumulative and mean exposures. A possible explanation for the exposure–response findings of our study may be an interaction between genetic predisposition and a decreased permanence of soluble beryllium in the body. Both CBD and sensitization occurred in former workers whose mean daily working lifetime average exposures were lower than the current allowable Occupational Safety and Health Administration workplace air level of 2 μg/m(3) and the Department of Energy guideline of 0.2 μg/m(3)

Stability of the vaginal, oral, and gut microbiota across pregnancy among African American women: the effect of socioeconomic status and antibiotic exposure

Objective A growing body of research has investigated the human microbiota and pregnancy outcomes, especially preterm birth. Most studies of the prenatal microbiota have focused on the vagina, with fewer investigating other body sites during pregnancy. Although pregnancy involves profound hormonal, immunological and metabolic changes, few studies have investigated either shifts in microbiota composition across pregnancy at different body sites or variation in composition at any site that may be explained by maternal characteristics. The purpose of this study was to investigate: (1) the stability of the vaginal, oral, and gut microbiota from early (8–14 weeks) through later (24–30 weeks) pregnancy among African American women according to measures of socioeconomic status, accounting for prenatal antibiotic use; (2) whether measures of socioeconomic status are associated with changes in microbiota composition over pregnancy; and (3) whether exposure to prenatal antibiotics mediate any observed associations between measures of socioeconomic status and stability of the vaginal, oral, and gut microbiota across pregnancy. Methods We used paired vaginal, oral, or gut samples available for 16S rRNA gene sequencing from two time points in pregnancy (8–14 and 24–30 weeks) to compare within-woman changes in measures of alpha diversity (Shannon and Chao1) and beta-diversity (Bray–Curtis dissimilarity) among pregnant African American women (n = 110). Multivariable linear regression was used to examine the effect of level of education and prenatal health insurance as explanatory variables for changes in diversity, considering antibiotic exposure as a mediator, adjusting for age, obstetrical history, and weeks between sampling. Results For the oral and gut microbiota, there were no significant associations between measures of socioeconomic status or prenatal antibiotic use and change in Shannon or Chao1 diversity. For the vaginal microbiota, low level of education (high school or less) was associated with an increase in Shannon and Chao1 diversity over pregnancy, with minimal attenuation when controlling for prenatal antibiotic use. Conversely, for within-woman Bray–Curtis dissimilarity for early compared to later pregnancy, low level of education and prenatal antibiotics were associated with greater dissimilarity for the oral and gut sites, with minimal attenuation when controlling for prenatal antibiotics, and no difference in dissimilarity for the vaginal site. Conclusions Measures of maternal socioeconomic status are variably associated with changes in diversity across pregnancy for the vaginal, oral, and gut microbiota, with minimal attenuation by prenatal antibiotic exposure. Studies that evaluate stability of the microbiota across pregnancy in association with health outcomes themselves associated with socioeconomic status (such as preterm birth) should incorporate measures of socioeconomic status to avoid finding spurious relationships

Menstrual function among women exposed to polybrominated biphenyls: A follow-up prevalence study

BACKGROUND: Alteration in menstrual cycle function is suggested among rhesus monkeys and humans exposed to polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs) and structurally similar polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). The feedback system for menstrual cycle function potentially allows multiple pathways for disruption directly through the hypothalamic-pituitary-ovarian axis and indirectly through alternative neuroendocrine axes. METHODS: The Michigan Female Health Study was conducted during 1997–1998 among women in a cohort exposed to PBBs in 1973. This study included 337 women with self-reported menstrual cycles of 20–35 days (age range: 24–56 years). Current PBB levels were estimated by exponential decay modeling of serum PBB levels collected from 1976–1987 during enrollment in the Michigan PBB cohort. Linear regression models for menstrual cycle length and the logarithm of bleed length used estimated current PBB exposure or enrollment PBB exposure categorized in tertiles, and for the upper decile. All models were adjusted for serum PCB levels, age, body mass index, history of at least 10% weight loss in the past year, physical activity, smoking, education, and household income. RESULTS: Higher levels of physical activity were associated with shorter bleed length, and increasing age was associated with shorter cycle length. Although no overall association was found between PBB exposure and menstrual cycle characteristics, a significant interaction between PBB exposures with past year weight loss was found. Longer bleed length and shorter cycle length were associated with higher PBB exposure among women with past year weight loss. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that PBB exposure may impact ovarian function as indicated by menstrual cycle length and bleed length. However, these associations were found among the small number of women with recent weight loss suggesting either a chance finding or that mobilization of PBBs from lipid stores may be important. These results should be replicated with larger numbers of women exposed to similar lipophilic compounds