World steel production: a new monthly indicator of global real economic activity

In this paper we propose a new indicator of monthly global real economic activity, named world steel production. We use world steel production, OECD industrial production index and Kilian’s rea index to forecast world real GDP, and key commodity prices. We find that world steel production generates large statistically significant gains in forecasting world real GDP and oil prices, relative to an autoregressive benchmark. A forecast combination of the three indices produces statistically significant gains in forecasting world real GDP, oil, natural gas, gold and fertilizer prices, relative to an autoregressive benchmark

Exact solution of diffusion limited aggregation in a narrow cylindrical geometry

The diffusion limited aggregation model (DLA) and the more general dielectric breakdown model (DBM) are solved exactly in a two dimensional cylindrical geometry with periodic boundary conditions of width 2. Our approach follows the exact evolution of the growing interface, using the evolution matrix E, which is a temporal transfer matrix. The eigenvector of this matrix with an eigenvalue of one represents the system's steady state. This yields an estimate of the fractal dimension for DLA, which is in good agreement with simulations. The same technique is used to calculate the fractal dimension for various values of eta in the more general DBM model. Our exact results are very close to the approximate results found by the fixed scale transformation approach.Comment: 18 pages RevTex, 6 eps figure

Comment on ``Self-organized criticality and absorbing states: Lessons from the Ising model"

According to Pruessner and Peters [Phys. Rev. E {\bf 73}, 025106(R) (2006)], the finite size scaling exponents of the order parameter in sandpile models depend on the tuning of driving and dissipation rates with system size. We point out that the same is not true for {\em avalanches} in the slow driving limit.Comment: 3 pages, 1 figure, to appear in Phys. Rev.

Dynamically Driven Renormalization Group Applied to Sandpile Models

The general framework for the renormalization group analysis of self-organized critical sandpile models is formulated. The usual real space renormalization scheme for lattice models when applied to nonequilibrium dynamical models must be supplemented by feedback relations coming from the stationarity conditions. On the basis of these ideas the Dynamically Driven Renormalization Group is applied to describe the boundary and bulk critical behavior of sandpile models. A detailed description of the branching nature of sandpile avalanches is given in terms of the generating functions of the underlying branching process.Comment: 18 RevTeX pages, 5 figure

Renormalization group of probabilistic cellular automata with one absorbing state

We apply a recently proposed dynamically driven renormalization group scheme to probabilistic cellular automata having one absorbing state. We have found just one unstable fixed point with one relevant direction. In the limit of small transition probability one of the cellular automata reduces to the contact process revealing that the cellular automata are in the same universality class as that process, as expected. Better numerical results are obtained as the approximations for the stationary distribution are improved.Comment: Errors in some formulas have been corrected. Additional material available at http://mestre.if.usp.br/~javie

Roughness of Sandpile Surfaces

We study the surface roughness of prototype models displaying self-organized criticality (SOC) and their noncritical variants in one dimension. For SOC systems, we find that two seemingly equivalent definitions of surface roughness yields different asymptotic scaling exponents. Using approximate analytical arguments and extensive numerical studies we conclude that this ambiguity is due to the special scaling properties of the nonlinear steady state surface. We also find that there is no such ambiguity for non-SOC models, although there may be intermediate crossovers to different roughness values. Such crossovers need to be distinguished from the true asymptotic behaviour, as in the case of a noncritical disordered sandpile model studied in [10].Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures. Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

Sandpiles with height restrictions

We study stochastic sandpile models with a height restriction in one and two dimensions. A site can topple if it has a height of two, as in Manna's model, but, in contrast to previously studied sandpiles, here the height (or number of particles per site), cannot exceed two. This yields a considerable simplification over the unrestricted case, in which the number of states per site is unbounded. Two toppling rules are considered: in one, the particles are redistributed independently, while the other involves some cooperativity. We study the fixed-energy system (no input or loss of particles) using cluster approximations and extensive simulations, and find that it exhibits a continuous phase transition to an absorbing state at a critical value zeta_c of the particle density. The critical exponents agree with those of the unrestricted Manna sandpile.Comment: 10 pages, 14 figure

Fluctuations and correlations in sandpile models

We perform numerical simulations of the sandpile model for non-vanishing driving fields $h$ and dissipation rates $\epsilon$. Unlike simulations performed in the slow driving limit, the unique time scale present in our system allows us to measure unambiguously response and correlation functions. We discuss the dynamic scaling of the model and show that fluctuation-dissipation relations are not obeyed in this system.Comment: 5 pages, latex, 4 postscript figure

Video Pandemics: Worldwide Viral Spreading of Psy's Gangnam Style Video

Viral videos can reach global penetration traveling through international channels of communication similarly to real diseases starting from a well-localized source. In past centuries, disease fronts propagated in a concentric spatial fashion from the the source of the outbreak via the short range human contact network. The emergence of long-distance air-travel changed these ancient patterns. However, recently, Brockmann and Helbing have shown that concentric propagation waves can be reinstated if propagation time and distance is measured in the flight-time and travel volume weighted underlying air-travel network. Here, we adopt this method for the analysis of viral meme propagation in Twitter messages, and define a similar weighted network distance in the communication network connecting countries and states of the World. We recover a wave-like behavior on average and assess the randomizing effect of non-locality of spreading. We show that similar result can be recovered from Google Trends data as well.Comment: 10 page