Visualizing and Understanding Sum-Product Networks

Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) are recently introduced deep tractable probabilistic models by which several kinds of inference queries can be answered exactly and in a tractable time. Up to now, they have been largely used as black box density estimators, assessed only by comparing their likelihood scores only. In this paper we explore and exploit the inner representations learned by SPNs. We do this with a threefold aim: first we want to get a better understanding of the inner workings of SPNs; secondly, we seek additional ways to evaluate one SPN model and compare it against other probabilistic models, providing diagnostic tools to practitioners; lastly, we want to empirically evaluate how good and meaningful the extracted representations are, as in a classic Representation Learning framework. In order to do so we revise their interpretation as deep neural networks and we propose to exploit several visualization techniques on their node activations and network outputs under different types of inference queries. To investigate these models as feature extractors, we plug some SPNs, learned in a greedy unsupervised fashion on image datasets, in supervised classification learning tasks. We extract several embedding types from node activations by filtering nodes by their type, by their associated feature abstraction level and by their scope. In a thorough empirical comparison we prove them to be competitive against those generated from popular feature extractors as Restricted Boltzmann Machines. Finally, we investigate embeddings generated from random probabilistic marginal queries as means to compare other tractable probabilistic models on a common ground, extending our experiments to Mixtures of Trees.Comment: Machine Learning Journal paper (First Online), 24 page

Automatic Bayesian Density Analysis

Making sense of a dataset in an automatic and unsupervised fashion is a challenging problem in statistics and AI. Classical approaches for {exploratory data analysis} are usually not flexible enough to deal with the uncertainty inherent to real-world data: they are often restricted to fixed latent interaction models and homogeneous likelihoods; they are sensitive to missing, corrupt and anomalous data; moreover, their expressiveness generally comes at the price of intractable inference. As a result, supervision from statisticians is usually needed to find the right model for the data. However, since domain experts are not necessarily also experts in statistics, we propose Automatic Bayesian Density Analysis (ABDA) to make exploratory data analysis accessible at large. Specifically, ABDA allows for automatic and efficient missing value estimation, statistical data type and likelihood discovery, anomaly detection and dependency structure mining, on top of providing accurate density estimation. Extensive empirical evidence shows that ABDA is a suitable tool for automatic exploratory analysis of mixed continuous and discrete tabular data.Comment: In proceedings of the Thirty-Third AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-19

Taming the Sigmoid Bottleneck: Provably Argmaxable Sparse Multi-Label Classification

Sigmoid output layers are widely used in multi-label classification (MLC) tasks, in which multiple labels can be assigned to any input. In many practical MLC tasks, the number of possible labels is in the thousands, often exceeding the number of input features and resulting in a low-rank output layer. In multi-class classification, it is known that such a lowrank output layer is a bottleneck that can result in unargmaxable classes: classes which cannot be predicted for any input. In this paper, we show that for MLC tasks, the analogous sigmoid bottleneck results in exponentially many unargmaxable label combinations. We explain how to detect these unargmaxable outputs and demonstrate their presence in three widely used MLC datasets. We then show that they can be prevented in practice by introducing a Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) output layer, which guarantees that all sparse label combinations with up to k active labels are argmaxable. Our DFT layer trains faster and is more parameter efficient, matching the F1@k score of a sigmoid layer while using up to 50% fewer trainable parameters. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/andreasgrv/sigmoid-bottleneck

Conditional Sum-Product Networks: Imposing Structure on Deep Probabilistic Architectures

Probabilistic graphical models are a central tool in AI; however, they are generally not as expressive as deep neural models, and inference is notoriously hard and slow. In contrast, deep probabilistic models such as sum-product networks (SPNs) capture joint distributions in a tractable fashion, but still lack the expressive power of intractable models based on deep neural networks. Therefore, we introduce conditional SPNs (CSPNs), conditional density estimators for multivariate and potentially hybrid domains which allow harnessing the expressive power of neural networks while still maintaining tractability guarantees. One way to implement CSPNs is to use an existing SPN structure and condition its parameters on the input, e.g., via a deep neural network. This approach, however, might misrepresent the conditional independence structure present in data. Consequently, we also develop a structure-learning approach that derives both the structure and parameters of CSPNs from data. Our experimental evidence demonstrates that CSPNs are competitive with other probabilistic models and yield superior performance on multilabel image classification compared to mean field and mixture density networks. Furthermore, they can successfully be employed as building blocks for structured probabilistic models, such as autoregressive image models.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figure

How to Turn Your Knowledge Graph Embeddings into Generative Models

Some of the most successful knowledge graph embedding (KGE) models for link prediction -- CP, RESCAL, TuckER, ComplEx -- can be interpreted as energy-based models. Under this perspective they are not amenable for exact maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE), sampling and struggle to integrate logical constraints. This work re-interprets the score functions of these KGEs as circuits -- constrained computational graphs allowing efficient marginalisation. Then, we design two recipes to obtain efficient generative circuit models by either restricting their activations to be non-negative or squaring their outputs. Our interpretation comes with little or no loss of performance for link prediction, while the circuits framework unlocks exact learning by MLE, efficient sampling of new triples, and guarantee that logical constraints are satisfied by design. Furthermore, our models scale more gracefully than the original KGEs on graphs with millions of entities

Probabilistic Integral Circuits

Continuous latent variables (LVs) are a key ingredient of many generative models, as they allow modelling expressive mixtures with an uncountable number of components. In contrast, probabilistic circuits (PCs) are hierarchical discrete mixtures represented as computational graphs composed of input, sum and product units. Unlike continuous LV models, PCs provide tractable inference but are limited to discrete LVs with categorical (i.e. unordered) states. We bridge these model classes by introducing probabilistic integral circuits (PICs), a new language of computational graphs that extends PCs with integral units representing continuous LVs. In the first place, PICs are symbolic computational graphs and are fully tractable in simple cases where analytical integration is possible. In practice, we parameterise PICs with light-weight neural nets delivering an intractable hierarchical continuous mixture that can be approximated arbitrarily well with large PCs using numerical quadrature. On several distribution estimation benchmarks, we show that such PIC-approximating PCs systematically outperform PCs commonly learned via expectation-maximization or SGD

The Increasing Trend in Cesarean Sections in South Eastern Italy: Medical and Biopolitical Analysis of Causes and Possible Mechanisms for Its Reduction

Abstract: Caesarean section (CS) rates are rising globally, though with considerable variation from country to country; in Italy the CS rate is about 38.2% and in Puglia, a region in the South-east (4 million inhabitants), the CS rate is about 47.7%, up 4.25% in the last two years. Currently, the high rate of CS and operative delivery in developed countries may be attributed to larger foetuses, an increase in the frequency of diabetes mellitus and pelvic adiposity, advanced maternal age at first pregnancy and a decrease in tissue elasticity. Moreover patients have a very low acceptance of any maternal-foetal risk in labour, and there is a significant increase of CS "on maternal request". Studies of communities with low rates of caesarean delivery may help to identify factors that lower the CS rate, such as cultural attitudes toward childbirth, design of the perinatal system,and genetic and social aspects. Also needed are biopolitical projects for the rationalisation of human and technological resources, which may lead to a reduction in legal claims and a natural decrease in defensive practices or defensive obstetrics based on doubtful diagnoses. Furthermore, the number of caesarean deliveries performed "on maternal demand" should be reduced by making sure that women are adequately informed about the safety of vaginal versus caesarean delivery. National health programs should be insttituted and extended to large populations, showing the costs and benefits of vaginal versus CS delivery. This analysis reviews the current reasons for performing CS, analyzing limitations in labour management and focusing on dystocia, in order to identify possible socio-political and medical mechanisms that may reduce the CS rate in south-eastern Italy, including promising but under-used technologie