The role of eddies and topography in the export of shelf waters from the West Antarctic Peninsula shelf

Oceanic heat strongly influences the glaciers and ice shelves along West Antarctica. Prior studies show that the subsurface onshore heat flux from the Southern Ocean on the shelf occurs through deep, glacially carved channels. The mechanisms enabling the export of colder shelf waters to the open ocean, however, have not been determined. Here, we use ocean glider measurements collected near the mouth of Marguerite Trough (MT), west Antarctic Peninsula, to reveal shelf‐modified cold waters on the slope over a deep (2,700 m) offshore topographic bank. The shelf hydrographic sections show subsurface cold features (θ <=1.5 °C), and associated potential vorticity fields suggest a significant instability‐driven eddy field. Output from a high‐resolution numerical model reveals offshore export modulated by small (6 km), cold‐cored, cyclonic eddies preferentially generated along the slope and at the mouth of MT. While baroclinic and barotropic instabilities appear active in the surrounding open ocean, the former is suppressed along the steep shelf slopes, while the latter appears enhanced. Altimetry and model output reveal the mean slope flow splitting to form an offshore branch over the bank, which eventually forms a large (116 km wide) persistent lee eddy, and an onshore branch in MT. The offshore flow forms a pathway for the small cold‐cored eddies to move offshore, where they contribute significantly to cooling over the bank, including the large lee eddy. These results suggest eddy fluxes, and topographically modulated flows are key mechanisms for shelf water export along this shelf, just as they are for the shoreward warm water transport

Ice melt influence on summertime net community production along the Western Antarctic Peninsula

The Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is a highly productive marine environment that is undergoing rapid change, with consequences for productivity and total ecosystem carbon cycling. We present continuous underway O2/Ar estimates of net community production (NCPO2Ar) in austral summer 2012, 2013 and 2014 at sub-kilometer horizontal resolution within the Palmer Long-Term Ecological Research (Pal-LTER) grid region of the WAP. Substantial spatial variability is observed with NCPO2Ar ranging from 0 to 790 mmol O2 m−2 d−1 and considerable interannual variability with mean values in the grid region of 54.4±48.5, 44.6±40.5, and 85.6±75.9 mmol O2 m−2 d−1 in 2012, 2013 and 2014 respectively. Based on a strong correlation (r2=0.83) between residence time integrated NCPO2Ar and NCPDIC derived from seasonal DIC drawdown, we find the observed NCPO2Ar spatial and interannual variability to be consistent with the December–January NCPDIC magnitude. Seeking to explain the mechanistic drivers of NCP in the WAP, we observe a linear relationship between NCPO2Ar and meteoric water content derived from δ18O and salinity. This correlation may be due to Fe supply from glacial melt and/or strengthening of stratification and relief of light limitation. Elevated surface Fe availability, as indicated by Fv/Fm and measurements of surface water dissolved Fe and Mn (a rough proxy for recent potential Fe availability), and shallower, more stable mixed layers are present where meteoric water and/or sea ice melt is high near the coast. Light limitation is evident in the WAP when mixed layer depths are greater than ~40 m. Additionally we document hotspots of NCP associated with submarine canyons along the WAP. While it is difficult to predict how the physical-biological system might evolve under changing climatic conditions, it is evident that NCP, and potentially carbon flux out of the mixed layer, along the WAP will be sensitive to shifts in meltwater input and timing

A Theory for Complex Systems Social Change: An Application of a General ‘Criticality’ Model

Within the developed nations deterioration in the basis of society, as dramatically demonstrated by the Lehman collapse, has reached extreme levels, and currently the formation of pro-change agents is approaching a decisive stage. Here, we will construct a complex systems \u27criticality\u27 model, apply it to social change, and examine its reliability and validity. The model derived a power law distribution of the output of social change. The validity of the model was verified by examining vote shares of parties in Japan. Based on the results of this examination, we propose a new quantitative strategy “information entropy enhancement” for social change

Antarctic phytoplankton community composition and size structure: importance of ice type and temperature as regulatory factors

Climate change at the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is predicted to cause major changes in phytoplankton community composition, however, detailed seasonal field data remain limited and it is largely unknown how (changes in) environmental factors influence cell size and ecosystem function. Physicochemical drivers of phytoplankton community abundance, taxonomic composition and size class were studied over two productive austral seasons in the coastal waters of the climatically sensitive WAP. Ice type (fast, grease, pack or brash ice) was important in structuring the pre-bloom phytoplankton community as well as cell size of the summer phytoplankton bloom. Maximum biomass accumulation was regulated by light and nutrient availability, which in turn were regulated by wind-driven mixing events. The proportion of larger-sized (> 20 µm) diatoms increased under prolonged summer stratification in combination with frequent and moderate-strength wind-induced mixing. Canonical correspondence analysis showed that relatively high temperature was correlated with nano-sized cryptophytes, whereas prymnesiophytes (Phaeocystis antarctica) increased in association with high irradiance and low salinities. During autumn of Season 1, a large bloom of 4.5-µm-sized diatoms occurred under conditions of seawater temperature > 0 °C and relatively high light and phosphate concentrations. This bloom was followed by a succession of larger nano-sized diatoms (11.4 µm) related to reductions in phosphate and light availability. Our results demonstrate that flow cytometry in combination with chemotaxonomy and size fractionation provides a powerful approach to monitor phytoplankton community dynamics in the rapidly warming Antarctic coastal waters

Alternative splicing of TIA-1 in human colon cancer regulates VEGF isoform expression, angiogenesis, tumour growth and bevacizumab resistance

© 2014 The Authors. The angiogenic capability of colorectal carcinomas (CRC), and their susceptibility to anti-angiogenic therapy, is determined by expression of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) isoforms. The intracellular protein T-cell Intracellular Antigen (TIA-1) alters post-transcriptional RNA processing and binds VEGF-A mRNA. We therefore tested the hypothesis that TIA-1 could regulate VEGF-A isoform expression in colorectal cancers. TIA-1 and VEGF-A isoform expression was measured in colorectal cancers and cell lines. We discovered that an endogenous splice variant of TIA-1 encoding a truncated protein, short TIA-1 (sTIA-1) was expressed in CRC tissues and invasive K-Ras mutant colon cancer cells and tissues but not in adenoma cell lines. sTIA-1 was more highly expressed in CRC than in normal tissues and increased with tumour stage. Knockdown of sTIA-1 or over-expression of full length TIA-1 (flTIA-1) induced expression of the anti-angiogenic VEGF isoform VEGF-A 165 b. Whereas flTIA-1 selectively bound VEGF-A 165 mRNA and increased translation of VEGF-A 165 b, sTIA-1 prevented this binding. In nude mice, xenografted colon cancer cells over-expressing flTIA-1 formed smaller, less vascular tumours than those expressing sTIA-1, but flTIA-1 expression inhibited the effect of anti-VEGF antibodies. These results indicate that alternative splicing of an RNA binding protein can regulate isoform specific expression of VEGF providing an added layer of complexity to the angiogenic profile of colorectal cancer and their resistance to anti-angiogenic therapy

Tocilizumab in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial

Background: In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effects of tocilizumab in adult patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 with both hypoxia and systemic inflammation. Methods: This randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]), is assessing several possible treatments in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in the UK. Those trial participants with hypoxia (oxygen saturation &lt;92% on air or requiring oxygen therapy) and evidence of systemic inflammation (C-reactive protein ≥75 mg/L) were eligible for random assignment in a 1:1 ratio to usual standard of care alone versus usual standard of care plus tocilizumab at a dose of 400 mg–800 mg (depending on weight) given intravenously. A second dose could be given 12–24 h later if the patient's condition had not improved. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality, assessed in the intention-to-treat population. The trial is registered with ISRCTN (50189673) and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04381936). Findings: Between April 23, 2020, and Jan 24, 2021, 4116 adults of 21 550 patients enrolled into the RECOVERY trial were included in the assessment of tocilizumab, including 3385 (82%) patients receiving systemic corticosteroids. Overall, 621 (31%) of the 2022 patients allocated tocilizumab and 729 (35%) of the 2094 patients allocated to usual care died within 28 days (rate ratio 0·85; 95% CI 0·76–0·94; p=0·0028). Consistent results were seen in all prespecified subgroups of patients, including those receiving systemic corticosteroids. Patients allocated to tocilizumab were more likely to be discharged from hospital within 28 days (57% vs 50%; rate ratio 1·22; 1·12–1·33; p&lt;0·0001). Among those not receiving invasive mechanical ventilation at baseline, patients allocated tocilizumab were less likely to reach the composite endpoint of invasive mechanical ventilation or death (35% vs 42%; risk ratio 0·84; 95% CI 0·77–0·92; p&lt;0·0001). Interpretation: In hospitalised COVID-19 patients with hypoxia and systemic inflammation, tocilizumab improved survival and other clinical outcomes. These benefits were seen regardless of the amount of respiratory support and were additional to the benefits of systemic corticosteroids. Funding: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council) and National Institute of Health Research

Convalescent plasma in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised controlled, open-label, platform trial

Background: Many patients with COVID-19 have been treated with plasma containing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of convalescent plasma therapy in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Methods: This randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]) is assessing several possible treatments in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in the UK. The trial is underway at 177 NHS hospitals from across the UK. Eligible and consenting patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either usual care alone (usual care group) or usual care plus high-titre convalescent plasma (convalescent plasma group). The primary outcome was 28-day mortality, analysed on an intention-to-treat basis. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, 50189673, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04381936. Findings: Between May 28, 2020, and Jan 15, 2021, 11558 (71%) of 16287 patients enrolled in RECOVERY were eligible to receive convalescent plasma and were assigned to either the convalescent plasma group or the usual care group. There was no significant difference in 28-day mortality between the two groups: 1399 (24%) of 5795 patients in the convalescent plasma group and 1408 (24%) of 5763 patients in the usual care group died within 28 days (rate ratio 1·00, 95% CI 0·93–1·07; p=0·95). The 28-day mortality rate ratio was similar in all prespecified subgroups of patients, including in those patients without detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at randomisation. Allocation to convalescent plasma had no significant effect on the proportion of patients discharged from hospital within 28 days (3832 [66%] patients in the convalescent plasma group vs 3822 [66%] patients in the usual care group; rate ratio 0·99, 95% CI 0·94–1·03; p=0·57). Among those not on invasive mechanical ventilation at randomisation, there was no significant difference in the proportion of patients meeting the composite endpoint of progression to invasive mechanical ventilation or death (1568 [29%] of 5493 patients in the convalescent plasma group vs 1568 [29%] of 5448 patients in the usual care group; rate ratio 0·99, 95% CI 0·93–1·05; p=0·79). Interpretation: In patients hospitalised with COVID-19, high-titre convalescent plasma did not improve survival or other prespecified clinical outcomes. Funding: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council) and National Institute of Health Research

Physical conditions controlling the development of a regular phytoplankton bloom north of the Crozet Plateau, Southern Ocean

A phytoplankton bloom occurs north of the Crozet Plateau annually from September to January. The area, bounded to the north by the Sub-Antarctic Front, is the most northerly of the areas of regular high productivity in the otherwise high-nutrient low-chlorophyll Southern Ocean. Chlorophyll concentrations are at background values to the south and only slightly enhanced over the shallow plateau, producing three contrasting productivity regimes. The CROZet natural iron bloom and EXport experiment (CROZEX) project was aimed at testing the hypothesis that the bloom is caused by natural iron fertilisation from the sediments and islands of the Crozet Plateau. In this paper, the temporal and spatial progression of the bloom and the contrasting productivity regimes are investigated using SeaWiFS and MODIS chlorophyll-a (chl-a), photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) from SeaWiFS, QuikSCAT wind-stress data, Argo float profiles and data from three research cruises to the region. Comparison of satellite chl-a data against in situ measurements showed that the satellite data were lower by a factor of approximately 2. Iron, light and grazing are all important in explaining the different productivity regimes. To the north, light is dominant in controlling the timing and location of the bloom initiation, but the spatial distribution of the peak chl-a values obtained through the season is associated with the flow pattern and their proximity to the plateau and so are likely driven by nutrient availability. Mixed-layer depths in Argo float density profiles show a shallowing of the mixed-layer depth to the north of 10.8±1.0 m degree−1 across the study area. This gradient, together with a latitudinal gradient in PAR, is sufficient to explain the observed spatial progression of the bloom

Large-scale circulation around the Crozet Plateau controls an annual phytoplankton bloom in the Crozet Basin

The circulation in the vicinity of the Crozet Plateau in the Southwest Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean is examined using hydrographic sections, Argo floats, surface drifters, and satellite altimetry. All four techniques confirm that a major branch of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the SubAntarctic Front (SAF), flows anticyclonically round the Del Caño Rise west of the Crozet Plateau, i.e. eastward to the south of the Del Caño Rise, then northward and sometimes northwestward into the Crozet Basin, before turning back eastward in a combined front with the Agulhas Return Current and the SubTropical Front. This S-bend in the SAF is a permanent feature, controlled by the bathymetry, as has been inferred previously by Pollard and Read [Pollard, R.T., Read, J.F., 2001. Circulation pathways and transports of the Southern Ocean in the vicinity of the Southwest Indian Ridge. Journal of Geophysical Research, 106(C2), 2881–2898]. Similar, but much weaker, anticyclonic flow is found round the Crozet Plateau itself, with no more than 5−10×106 m3 s−1 turning north to the east of the Crozet Islands. Circulation north of the Crozet Plateau, between the Plateau and the S-bend of the SAF, is extremely weak, fed only by anticyclonic meanders breaking off the SAF into the area from the west or north, and occasional input from the northward, partially wind-driven (i.e. Ekman) flow south and east of the islands. In consequence of the weak circulation, dissolved iron from the land or sediments of the Crozet Plateau and Islands can build up during the winter in the Polar Frontal Zone between Crozet and the SAF, which gives rise to an annual bloom in this area. Biological evidence from satellite images, and from phytoplankton and zooplankton distributions, supports the circulation pattern we develop. This pattern confirms that patchiness of productivity in the bloom area results from close juxtaposition of water that has entered the area from the west from the SAF and from the south and east after flowing past the islands. Flow from the south and east has had a chance to entrain iron from the islands and sediments whereas flow from the west has not