Machine learning based prediction of COVID-19 mortality suggests repositioning of anticancer drug for treating severe cases

Despite available vaccinations COVID-19 case numbers around the world are still growing, and effective medications against severe cases are lacking. In this work, we developed a machine learning model which predicts mortality for COVID-19 patients using data from the multi-center ‘Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2-infected patients’ (LEOSS) observational study (>100 active sites in Europe, primarily in Germany), resulting into an AUC of almost 80%. We showed that molecular mechanisms related to dementia, one of the relevant predictors in our model, intersect with those associated to COVID-19. Most notably, among these molecules was tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2), a protein that has been patented as drug target in Alzheimer's Disease but also genetically associated with severe COVID-19 outcomes. We experimentally verified that anti-cancer drugs Sorafenib and Regorafenib showed a clear anti-cytopathic effect in Caco2 and VERO-E6 cells and can thus be regarded as potential treatments against COVID-19. Altogether, our work demonstrates that interpretation of machine learning based risk models can point towards drug targets and new treatment options, which are strongly needed for COVID-19

Hospitalized patients dying with SARS-CoV-2 infection—an analysis of patient characteristics and management in ICU and general ward of the LEOSS registry

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is a severe disease with a high need for intensive care treatment and a high mortality rate in hospitalized patients. The objective of this study was to describe and compare the clinical characteristics and the management of patients dying with SARS-CoV-2 infection in the acute medical and intensive care setting. METHODS: Descriptive analysis of dying patients enrolled in the Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2 Infected Patients (LEOSS), a non-interventional cohort study, between March 18 and November 18, 2020. Symptoms, comorbidities and management of patients, including palliative care involvement, were compared between general ward and intensive care unit (ICU) by univariate analysis. RESULTS: 580/4310 (13%) SARS-CoV-2 infected patients died. Among 580 patients 67% were treated on ICU and 33% on a general ward. The spectrum of comorbidities and symptoms was broad with more comorbidities (≥ four comorbidities: 52% versus 25%) and a higher age distribution (>65 years: 98% versus 70%) in patients on the general ward. 69% of patients were in an at least complicated phase at diagnosis of the SARS-CoV-2 infection with a higher proportion of patients in a critical phase or dying the day of diagnosis treated on ICU (36% versus 11%). While most patients admitted to ICU came from home (71%), patients treated on the general ward came likewise from home and nursing home (44% respectively) and were more frequently on palliative care before admission (29% versus 7%). A palliative care team was involved in dying patients in 15%. Personal contacts were limited but more often documented in patients treated on ICU (68% versus 47%). CONCLUSION: Patients dying with SARS-CoV-2 infection suffer from high symptom burden and often deteriorate early with a demand for ICU treatment. Therefor a demand for palliative care expertise with early involvement seems to exist

Alzheimer's Disease Plasma Biomarkers Distinguish Clinical Diagnostic Groups in Memory Clinic Patients

INTRODUCTION: Several recent research studies show high performance of blood biomarkers to identify Alzheimer's disease also in the pre-dementia mild cognitive impairment (MCI) stage, but data from the routine clinical care memory clinic setting are needed. METHODS: We examined plasma samples of 144 memory clinic patients, including dementia of Alzheimer type (DAT, n = 54), MCI (n = 57), and subjective cognitive decline (SCD, n = 33), who either presented as self-referrals or were referred by general practitioners or neurologists or psychiatrists. The plasma biomarkers, amyloid-beta42 (Aß42), amyloid-beta40 (Aß40), phospho-Tau181 (pTau181), total-tau (tTau), and neurofilament light (NFL), as well as different ratios, were measured using the ultrasensitive single molecule array (Simoa) immunoassay technology. Statistical analysis including Kruskal-Wallis test, linear regression, and receiver operating characteristics analyses was performed. RESULTS: Of the single markers, we observed statistically significant group effects of pTau181 (H(2) = 34.43, p < 0.001) and NFL (H(2) = 27.66, p < 0.001). All individual group comparisons of pTau181 were significant, while the contrast of SCD versus MCI for NFL was not significant. In addition, the ratios of Aß42/Aß40 (H(2) = 7.50, p = 0.02) and pTau181/Aß42 (H(2) = 25.26, p < 0.001) showed significant group effects with significant difference between all groups for pTau181/Aß42 and an SCD versus MCI difference for Aß42/Aß40. PTau181 showed the highest area under the curve of 0.85 for the discrimination of SCD and DAT with a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 79% at a cut-off of 12.2 pg/mL. Age influenced Aß42, Aß40, and NFL concentrations. CONCLUSION: Plasma pTau181 and NFL, as well as the ratios Aß42/Aß40 and pTau181/Aß42, are biomarkers, which can differentiate diagnostic groups in a memory clinic setting outside of research studies

Frequently asked questions regarding SARS-CoV-2 in cancer patients—recommendations for clinicians caring for patients with malignant diseases

Since early 2020, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has a massive impact on health care systems worldwide. Patients with malignant diseases are assumed to be at increased risk for a worse outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and therefore, guidance regarding prevention and management of the infection as well as safe administration of cancer-therapy is required. Here, we provide recommendations for the management of patients with malignant disease in the times of COVID-19. These recommendations were prepared by an international panel of experts and then consented by the EHA Scientific Working Group on Infection in Hematology. The primary aim is to enable clinicians to provide optimal cancer care as safely as possible, since the most important protection for patients with malignant disease is the best-possible control of the underlying disease.Open access funding provided by Projekt DEA

Prognostic factors in 264 adults with invasive Scedosporium spp. and Lomentospora prolificans infection reported in the literature and FungiScope

Invasive Scedosporium spp. and Lomentospora prolificans infections are an emerging threat in immunocompromised and occasionally in healthy hosts. Scedosporium spp. is intrinsically resistant to most, L. prolificans to all the antifungal drugs currently approved, raising concerns about appropriate treatment decisions. High mortality rates of up to 90% underline the need for comprehensive diagnostic workup and even more for new, effective antifungal drugs to improve patient outcome. For a comprehensive analysis, we identified cases of severe Scedosporium spp. and L. prolificans infections from the literature diagnosed in 2000 or later and the FungiScopeVR registry. For 208 Scedosporium spp. infections solid organ transplantation (n¼58, 27.9%) and for 56 L. prolificans infection underlying malignancy (n¼28, 50.0%) were the most prevalent risk factors. L. prolificans infections frequently presented as fungemia (n¼26, 46.4% versus n¼12, 5.8% for Scedosporium spp.). Malignancy, fungemia, CNS and lung involvement predicted worse outcome for scedosporiosis and lomentosporiosis. Patients treated with voriconazole had a better overall outcome in both groups compared to treatment with amphotericin B formulations. This review discusses the epidemiology, prognostic factors, pathogen susceptibility to approved and investigational antifungals, and treatment strategies of severe infections caused by Scedosporium spp. and L. prolificansWe thank Sabine Wrackmeyer for her private donation to support the projec

Chronic Liver Enzyme Elevation and Use of Contemporary ARVs Among People With HIV

Background While use of some older antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) is associated with chronic liver enzyme elevation (cLEE), the impact of newer ARVs remains unknown. Methods People with HIV enrolled in the RESPOND cohort who started an ARV after January 1, 2012 were included (baseline). The primary outcome was first cLEE individuals were censored at first of cLEE, last visit, death, or December 31, 2021. Incidence rates (IRs; events/1000 person-years) were calculated for each ARV overall and by ARV exposure (6–12 months, 1–2 years, and 2+ years). Poisson regression was used to estimate the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of cLEE and its association with individual ARVs and ARV class. Results Of 17 106 individuals included contributing 87 924 person-years of follow-up, 1932 (11.3%) experienced cLEE (incidence rate [IR], 22.0; 95% CI, 21.0–23.0). There was no evidence of a cumulative ARV effect on cLEE incidence, (6–12 months: IR, 45.8; 95% CI, 41.4–50.19; 1–2 years: IR, 34.3; 95% CI, 31.5–37.4; and 2+ years: IR, 18.5; 95% CI, 17.4–19.7). Any use (vs no prior use) of non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) as a class and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) was independently associated with an increased IRR of cLEE, and any use of darunavir (DRV) was associated with a decreased risk of cLEE. Conclusions cLEE is common and more frequent during the first year after initiating new ARVs. With a &gt;5-year median follow-up, we found no short-term liver safety concerns with the use of INSTIs. Use of NNRTIs and TDF was associated with an increased cLEE risk, while DRV was associated with lower risk

Chronic Liver Enzyme Elevation and Use of Contemporary ARVs Among People With HIV

Background. While use of some older antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) is associated with chronic liver enzyme elevation (cLEE), the impact of newer ARVs remains unknown. Methods. People with HIV enrolled in the RESPOND cohort who started an ARV after January 1, 2012 were included (baseline). The primary outcome was first cLEE individuals were censored at first of cLEE, last visit, death, or December 31, 2021. Incidence rates (IRs; events/1000 person-years) were calculated for each ARV overall and by ARV exposure (6-12 months, 1-2 years, and 2+ years). Poisson regression was used to estimate the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of cLEE and its association with individual ARVs and ARV class. Results. Of 17 106 individuals included contributing 87 924 person-years of follow-up, 1932 (11.3%) experienced cLEE (incidence rate [IR], 22.0; 95% CI, 21.0-23.0). There was no evidence of a cumulative ARV effect on cLEE incidence, (6-12 months: IR, 45.8; 95% CI, 41.4-50.19; 1-2 years: IR, 34.3; 95% CI, 31.5-37.4; and 2+ years: IR, 18.5; 95% CI, 17.4-19.7). Any use (vs no prior use) of non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) as a class and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) was independently associated with an increased IRR of cLEE, and any use of darunavir (DRV) was associated with a decreased risk of cLEE. Conclusions. cLEE is common and more frequent during the first year after initiating new ARVs. With a &gt;5-year median follow-up, we found no short-term liver safety concerns with the use of INSTIs. Use of NNRTIs and TDF was associated with an increased cLEE risk, while DRV was associated with lower risk

HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis was associated with no impact on sexually transmitted infection prevalence in a high-prevalence population of predominantly men who have sex with men, Germany, 2018 to 2019

Introduction: Despite increased use of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in Germany, HIV infection rates are not declining and little is known about how this prevention method affects the prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STI) among men who have sex with men (MSM). Aim: We studied, in a large multicentre cohort, STI point prevalence, co-infection rates, anatomical location and influence of PrEP. Methods: The BRAHMS study was a prospective cohort study conducted at 10 sites in seven major German cities that enrolled MSM reporting increased sexual risk behaviour. At screening visits, MSM were tested for Mycoplasma genitalium (MG), Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG), Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) and Treponema pallidum (TP), and given a behavioural questionnaire. With binomial regression, we estimated prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association of PrEP and STI. Results: We screened 1,043 MSM in 2018 and 2019, with 53.0% currently using PrEP. At screening, 370 participants (35.5%) had an STI. The most common pathogen was MG in 198 (19.0%) participants, followed by CT (n = 133; 12.8%), NG (n = 105; 10.1%) and TP (n = 37; 3.5%). Among the 370 participants with at least one STI, 14.6% (n = 54) reported STI-related symptoms. Infection prevalence was highest at anorectal site (13.4% MG, 6.5% NG, 10.2% CT). PrEP use was not statistically significant in adjusted models for STI (PR: 1.10; 95% CI: 0.91–1.32), NG/CT, only NG or only CT. Conclusions: Prevalence of asymptomatic STI was high, and PrEP use did not influence STI prevalence in MSM eligible for PrEP according to national guidelines.Peer Reviewe

Mortality According to CD4 Count at Start of Combination Antiretroviral Therapy Among HIV-infected Patients Followed for up to 15 Years After Start of Treatment: Collaborative Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: CD4 count at start of combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) is strongly associated with short-term survival, but its association with longer-term survival is less well characterized. METHODS: We estimated mortality rates (MRs) by time since start of ART (&lt;0.5, 0.5-0.9, 1-2.9, 3-4.9, 5-9.9, and ≥10 years) among patients from 18 European and North American cohorts who started ART during 1996-2001. Piecewise exponential models stratified by cohort were used to estimate crude and adjusted (for sex, age, transmission risk, period of starting ART [1996-1997, 1998-1999, 2000-2001], and AIDS and human immunodeficiency virus type 1 RNA at baseline) mortality rate ratios (MRRs) by CD4 count at start of ART (0-49, 50-99, 100-199, 200-349, 350-499, ≥500 cells/µL) overall and separately according to time since start of ART. RESULTS: A total of 6344 of 37 496 patients died during 359 219 years of follow-up. The MR per 1000 person-years was 32.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 30.2-35.5) during the first 6 months, declining to 16.0 (95% CI, 15.4-16.8) during 5-9.9 years and 14.2 (95% CI, 13.3-15.1) after 10 years' duration of ART. During the first year of ART, there was a strong inverse association of CD4 count at start of ART with mortality. This diminished over the next 4 years. The adjusted MRR per CD4 group was 0.97 (95% CI, .94-1.00; P = .054) and 1.02 (95% CI, .98-1.07; P = .32) among patients followed for 5-9.9 and ≥10 years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: After surviving 5 years of ART, the mortality of patients who started ART with low baseline CD4 count converged with mortality of patients with intermediate and high baseline CD4 counts

The protective effect of tumor necrosis factor-alpha inhibitors in COVID-19 in patients with inflammatory rheumatic diseases compared to the general population: a comparison of two German registries

Objectives: To investigate, whether inflammatory rheumatic diseases (IRD) inpatients are at higher risk to develop a severe course of SARS-CoV-2 infections compared to the general population, data from the German COVID-19 registry for IRD patients and data from the Lean European Survey on SARS-CoV-2 (LEOSS) infected patients covering inpatients from the general population with SARS-CoV-2 infections were compared. Methods: 4310 (LEOSS registry) and 1139 cases (IRD registry) were collected in general. Data were matched for age and gender. From both registries, 732 matched inpatients (LEOSS registry: n = 366 and IRD registry: n = 366) were included for analyses in total. Results: Regarding the COVID-19 associated lethality, no significant difference between both registries was observed. Age > 65°years, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, rheumatoid arthritis, spondyloarthritis and the use of rituximab were associated with more severe courses of COVID-19. Female gender and the use of tumor necrosis factor-alpha inhibitors (TNF-I) were associated with a better outcome of COVID-19. Conclusion: Inflammatory rheumatic diseases (IRD) patients have the same risk factors for severe COVID-19 regarding comorbidities compared to the general population without any immune-mediated disease or immunomodulation. The use of rituximab was associated with an increased risk for severe COVID-19. On the other hand, the use of TNF-I was associated with less severe COVID-19 compared to the general population, which might indicate a protective effect of TNF-I against severe COVID-19 disease