The Revealed Preference for Battery Electric Vehicle Range

Fridstrøm, Lasse, and Vegard Østli. 2022. “The Revealed Preference for Battery Electric Vehicle Range.” Findings, January. https://doi.org/10.32866/001c.31635. Authors must agree that the following will be binding upon article acceptance when submitting a manuscript to a Findings sections for consideration: I hereby grant to the journal the nonexclusive, royalty-free right to distribute, display, and archive this work in a digital and/or print format during the full term of copyright. I warrant that I have the copyright to make this grant to the journal unencumbered and complete. Authors are responsible for obtaining permission to reproduce copyrighted material from other sources. Following publication, the author’s rights will be protected under Creative Commons License Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license CC BY-SA 4.0.Exploiting a disaggregate discrete choice model of automobile purchase, we reveal the willingness-to-pay for extended all-electric range in battery and plug-in hybrid electric cars in Norway. We find diminishing returns to range. By integration under the marginal willingness-to-pay curve, we calculate and plot the value of 100 km extended range. From an initial range of 150 km, the revealed willingness-to-pay for 100 km longer range in a battery electric vehicle is around € 24000. When starting from an initial range of 500 km, the value of another 100 km range drops to around € 5100.publishedVersio

Comparing the Scandinavian automobile taxation systems and their CO2 mitigation effects

Despite their similarities, Scandinavian countries have adopted starkly different automobile tax regimes. The Danish system entails very high and convex tax rates with moderate CO2 differentiation. In Norway, tax rates are high and convex with strong CO2 differentiation and total exemptions for zero emission vehicles, even from value added tax. Sweden practices feebates – CO2 dependent subsidization along with moderate taxation. Relying on a disaggregate discrete choice model of automobile purchase, we simulate the demand for passenger cars as of 2016 in Norway under a set of conditions resembling, respectively, the Danish, Norwegian or Swedish fiscal incentives before and after recent reforms. In all cases, implications are derived in terms of energy technology market shares, average type approval CO2 emission rates, and aggregate fiscal revenue. The automobile taxation system is seen to have remarkable impacts on all three accounts. In essence, among the three jurisdictions examined, the Norwegian fiscal regime has by far the strongest CO2 abatement effect. The Danish system is less effective in terms of CO2 abatement, but provides twice as much government revenue. The Swedish feebate strategy is by far the least effective in terms of both CO2 mitigation and revenue collection.publishedVersio

Økonomiske konsekvenser for mindre aktører av ulike skattemodeller i havbruk: En komparativ analyse av den norske og den færøyske modellen

Denne oppgaven handler om Finansdepartementets forslag til innføring av grunnrenteskatt i havbruksnæringen. Begrunnelsen for å innføre en slik skatt er at den ekstra profitten, eller grunnrenten som havbruksnæringen tjener gjennom statlige reguleringer av begrensede ressurser, også skal komme felleskapet til gode. Som svar på Finansdepartementets forslag har Sjømat Norge fremmet en alternativ metode å beregne grunnrente på. Denne metoden er en variant av modellen som er brukt på Færøyene. Oppgaven er en kontrafaktisk, komparativ flercasestudie som undersøker og sammenligner tre skattemodeller, den norske grunnrentemodellen, dagens færøyske modell og en foreslått revidert færøysk modell. Selskapene som undersøkes er tre mindre familieeide oppdrettsselskap som holder til i samme region i Sør-Troms. Disse er Kleiva Fiskefarm AS, Northern Lights Salmon AS og Sørrollnesfisk AS. Formålet med oppgaven er å undersøke de bedriftsøkonomiske konsekvensene av de forskjellige skattemodellene. For å beregne disse tas det utgangspunkt i selskapenes faktiske finansregnskaper for en periode på seks år (2016 – 2021). Denne studien viser hvordan de tre skattemodellene påvirker selskapenes økonomi forskjellig, og hvilke utfordringer hver av modellene kan medføre i praksis. Resultatene av studien viser at den norske skattemodellen i større grad enn de to færøyske gir lavere skattekostnad når selskapenes lønnsomhet er svak, og en betydelig høyere skattekostnad når lønnsomheten er god. De undersøkte selskapene har i seksårsperioden flest år med store overskudd, og selskapenes skattekostnad blir derfor vesentlig lavere ved begge de færøyske modellene enn ved den norske. De færøyske modellene omtales ofte som bruttomodeller siden avgiftsgrunnlaget er selskapenes inntekt. Satsen avgiftsgrunnlaget multipliseres med, varierer med den gjennomsnittlige produksjonskostnaden for et avgrenset område. Ved større individuelle variasjoner i produksjonskostnaden innenfor et område vil derfor skattekostnaden ved begge de færøyskmodellene være mindre korrelert med det enkeltes selskaps lønnsomhet. Disse modellene vil derfor kunne opptre som både brutto- og overskuddsmodeller. Uavhengig av skattemodell vil selskapenes kontantstrømanalyse, hvor finansielle aktiviteter er ekskludert, være positiv i samtlige undersøkte år. Selskapene hadde dermed i perioden likviditet til å gjøre investeringene som de anså nødvendig. Dette tyder på at en økt skattekostnad trolig ikke vil gå på bekostning av investeringer i selskapet

Punktlighet i jernbanen - hvert sekund teller

Denne boken gir en innføring i punktlighetsarbeid for jernbane, og er ment som et supplement til annen litteratur som finnes på området. Boken er basert på forsknings‐ og utviklingsarbeid utført ved SINTEF, Norges teknisk‐naturvitenskapelige universitet (NTNU) og Transportøkonomisk institutt (TØI) i samarbeid med de største aktørene i norsk jernbanesektor. Jernbanen er et komplekst og sammensatt trafikksystem der kravene til kvalitet og presisjon er stadig økende. En av de mest sentrale kvalitetsindikatorene ved transport er punktlighet. Gjennom en serie større forskningsprosjekter de siste 10–15 årene har aktører i norsk jernbanesektor i fellesskap utviklet kunnskap og løsninger for å nå målet om god punktlighet og forutsigbarhet i togtrafikken. Jernbaneverket har vært prosjekteier for disse prosjektene, SINTEF, TØI og NTNU har vært utøvende forskningspartnere, mens CargoNet, NSB og Flytoget har deltatt i arbeidet. Prosjektene ble finansiert av Norges forskningsråd og de deltakende organisasjonene. Denne boken bygger på resultatene fra forskningsprosjektene og fokuserer på analyser av punktlighetsdata. Vi vil takke alle som har bidratt til å realisere denne boken; både i utarbeidelsen av boken og gjennom finansiering og gjennomføring av de forutgående forskningsprosjektene. Framtiden er spennende – framtiden går på skinner!publishedVersio

A stock-flow cohort model of the national car fleet

Purpose Various regulatory and fiscal policy instruments are in force to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases and local pollutants emitted by private cars. The incentives operate primarily—or exclusively—on the newest generation of cars. But how fast will technological developments affecting new vehicle models penetrate into the car fleet? The speed at which the adverse effects of private car use will be mitigated through the normal vehicle renewal process, or through an accelerated one, carries considerable interest. Suitable modelling tools are needed. This paper aims to demonstrate the usefulness and flexibility of a bottom-up stock-flow modelling approach to private car fleet forecasting and policy analysis. Methods In the BIG model of the Norwegian automobile fleet, the annual stocks and flows characterising the car fleet are specified as matrices of 682 mutually exclusive and exhaustive cells, formed by cross-tabulations between 22 vehicle segments and 31 age classes. New car registrations follow from a disaggregate generic discrete choice model based on two decades of complete sales data for individual passenger car models. Results Example projections are presented onto the 2050 horizon under a low carbon fiscal policy scenario as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The fiscal policy is seen to make a large difference in terms of long term fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. Conclusions Stock-flow cohort modelling of the automobile fleet is a powerful and handy tool for policy analysis. Even quite simple and straightforward accounting relations may provide important insights into the dynamics of fleet development. It is possible to incorporate, into the stock-flow modelling framework, interesting and useful behavioural relations, explaining aggregate automobile ownership and travel demand, scrapping and survival rates, or consumer choice in the market for new cars

Punktlighet i jernbanen - hvert sekund teller

Denne boken gir en innføring i punktlighetsarbeid for jernbane, og er ment som et supplement til annen litteratur som finnes på området. Boken er basert på forsknings‐ og utviklingsarbeid utført ved SINTEF, Norges teknisk‐naturvitenskapelige universitet (NTNU) og Transportøkonomisk institutt (TØI) i samarbeid med de største aktørene i norsk jernbanesektor. Jernbanen er et komplekst og sammensatt trafikksystem der kravene til kvalitet og presisjon er stadig økende. En av de mest sentrale kvalitetsindikatorene ved transport er punktlighet. Gjennom en serie større forskningsprosjekter de siste 10–15 årene har aktører i norsk jernbanesektor i fellesskap utviklet kunnskap og løsninger for å nå målet om god punktlighet og forutsigbarhet i togtrafikken. Jernbaneverket har vært prosjekteier for disse prosjektene, SINTEF, TØI og NTNU har vært utøvende forskningspartnere, mens CargoNet, NSB og Flytoget har deltatt i arbeidet. Prosjektene ble finansiert av Norges forskningsråd og de deltakende organisasjonene. Denne boken bygger på resultatene fra forskningsprosjektene og fokuserer på analyser av punktlighetsdata. Vi vil takke alle som har bidratt til å realisere denne boken; både i utarbeidelsen av boken og gjennom finansiering og gjennomføring av de forutgående forskningsprosjektene. Framtiden er spennende – framtiden går på skinner!publishedVersio

The vehicle purchase tax as a climate policy instrument

Since 2007, the Norwegian vehicle purchase tax includes a large CO2 emission component. At the same time, generous tax exemptions and privileges are granted to battery electric vehicles. Continued application of the purchase tax instrument may induce large-scale penetration of electric cars into the passenger car stock, thus halving the fleet’s fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions within two or three decades. The main tangible cost of this low carbon policy is the extra cost of acquiring novel products with currently small economies of scale. This cost difference will decline over time. The main benefits consist in reduced energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. We calculate the gross and net tangible cost of the low carbon policy in a long-term perspective, i.e. towards the 2050 horizon. A crucial cost determinant is the speed at which the manufacturing costs of battery and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles will fall. Under moderately optimistic assumptions about impending economies of scale, net tangible costs by 2050 come out in the range €48 to 278 per tonne CO2, depending on the discount rate and on battery replacement costs.acceptedVersio

Direct and cross price elasticities of demand for gasoline, diesel, hybrid and battery electric cars: the case of Norway

Aim: The primary goals of this research is (i) to derive direct and cross demand market response functions for automobile powertrains and their energy carriers and (ii) to assess how CO2 emissions from automobiles depend on vehicle and energy prices. Methods: The market demand for automobiles with differing powertrains is studied by means of a discrete choice model. Statistically precise coefficient estimates are calculated by means of a highly disaggregate data set consisting of virtually all 1.8 million new passenger car transactions in Norway during 2002–2016. Having estimated the model, we derive market response parameters in the form of direct and cross price elasticities of demand for gasoline, diesel, ordinary hybrid, plug-in hybrid and battery electric cars. Results: The own-price elasticity of gasoline driven cars is estimated at −1.08, and those of diesel driven, battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric cars at –0.99, −1.27 and −1.72, respectively, as of 2016 in Norway. The cross price elasticities of demand for gasoline cars with respect to the price of diesel cars, and vice versa, are estimated at 0.64 and 0.51, while the cross price elasticities of demand for battery electric cars with respect to the prices of gasoline and diesel driven cars come out at 0.36 and 0.48, respectively. A 1 % increase in the price of liquid fuel in general is found to reduce the average type approval rate of CO2 emission from new passenger cars by an estimated 0.19%. Conclusion: Fiscal policy measures affecting the prices of vehicles and fuel have a considerable potential for changing the long term composition of the vehicle fleet and its energy consumption, climate footprint and general environmental impact.publishedVersio

The Value of Time over Time : A Further Investigation on the Norwegian Value of Time Study

An important issue in the field of transport economics is the discrepancy between cross-sectional and longitudinal income elasticity of the Value of Travel Time Savings (VTTS). Policy makers and transport planners use the income elasticity of VTTS to calculate future VTTS. A major part of benefits of transport investments is due to travel time savings. Different values used for income elasticity of VTTS leads to different calculations of future benefits, and could affect the result of a cost-benefit analysis. In The Norwegian Value of Time Study income elasticity of VTTS was estimated to be about 0.5. The comparison of estimated VTTS based on 1996 data and 2009 data suggests an income elasticity of about 1.0 (Ramjerdi et al., 1997; Ramjerdi et al., 2010). The main focus on this thesis is to explore possible explanations for the divergence of cross-sectional and longitudinal income elasticity of VTTS. An econometric model is formulated to estimate income elasticity of VTTS based on data from the Norwegian Value of Time Study. The cross-sectional income elasticity of VTTS is estimated for different segments of data. It is found that cross-sectional income elasticity of VTTS most likely is an increasing function of income. There is also evidence indicating that cross-sectional income elasticity increases with age. Both of these factors could cause cross-sectional and longitudinal income elasticity of VTTS to converge over time. It is suggested that further studies on the subject are needed in order to identify possible solutions to the problem at hand

A stock-flow cohort model of the national car fleet

Purpose Various regulatory and fiscal policy instruments are in force to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases and local pollutants emitted by private cars. The incentives operate primarily—or exclusively—on the newest generation of cars. But how fast will technological developments affecting new vehicle models penetrate into the car fleet? The speed at which the adverse effects of private car use will be mitigated through the normal vehicle renewal process, or through an accelerated one, carries considerable interest. Suitable modelling tools are needed. This paper aims to demonstrate the usefulness and flexibility of a bottom-up stock-flow modelling approach to private car fleet forecasting and policy analysis. Methods In the BIG model of the Norwegian automobile fleet, the annual stocks and flows characterising the car fleet are specified as matrices of 682 mutually exclusive and exhaustive cells, formed by cross-tabulations between 22 vehicle segments and 31 age classes. New car registrations follow from a disaggregate generic discrete choice model based on two decades of complete sales data for individual passenger car models. Results Example projections are presented onto the 2050 horizon under a low carbon fiscal policy scenario as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The fiscal policy is seen to make a large difference in terms of long term fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. Conclusions Stock-flow cohort modelling of the automobile fleet is a powerful and handy tool for policy analysis. Even quite simple and straightforward accounting relations may provide important insights into the dynamics of fleet development. It is possible to incorporate, into the stock-flow modelling framework, interesting and useful behavioural relations, explaining aggregate automobile ownership and travel demand, scrapping and survival rates, or consumer choice in the market for new cars.publishedVersio